How the government shutdown could end: 3 big pressure points
WASHINGTON — The government shutdown is entering its 10th day, with Republicans and Democrats entrenched and refusing to cede any ground to their political enemies.
But the coming days and weeks will bring key pressure points that could potentially end the partisan gridlock.
So far, the impacts of the shutdown have been fairly limited, with the Smithsonian museums closing and some government services shutting down. But on Friday, hundreds of thousands of federal civilian workers will receive their first pay since the shutdown began, reflecting zero pay for October. On Wednesday, the military will see the same thing.
With air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration agents going unpaid, the staffing shortage will likely worsen, exacerbating flight delays and cancellations that have already frustrated travelers.
On top of that, Democrats’ focus on health care in the fight against the shutdown is starting to resonate with the public, as millions of Americans benefiting from Obamacare begin receiving notifications that their insurance premiums are about to rise significantly.
We would like to hear from you on how you are experiencing the government shutdown, whether you are a federal employee who cannot work right now or someone who is feeling the effects of the service shutdown in your daily life. Please contact us at tips@nbcuni.com or contact us here.
Missed paychecks
It’s one thing for Americans not to be able to access national park facilities and museums. It’s another matter when millions of American families across the country start missing paychecks and can’t pay their bills.
Friday marks the first time federal civilian workers will not receive pay due to the shutdown that began October 1. Although they will receive partial pay for work performed September 21-30, they will not receive any pay for the October opening days.
This includes Capitol Police officers, Border Patrol agents, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and Federal Emergency Management Agency employees.
After some confusion created by the White House, congressional leaders from both parties said this week that federal workers would receive back pay once the shutdown ends. But that still doesn’t help families who need to pay their rent or mortgage and put food on the table. Once they are no longer paid, workers risk increasing pressure on lawmakers and the president, who has been threatening mass layoffs of federal employees for days.
“That tells you everything you need to know about them. We don’t share the same values,” said Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., a key member of the Democratic caucus. “I mean, they want to punish the workers.”
Asked Thursday about the threat of layoffs, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told NBC News’ “Top Story” that “there is too much inefficiency in the federal government.”
“There are programs that probably should be eliminated, but we want federal employees to be protected,” he said.
Both sides could feel an even greater sense of urgency on Oct. 15, when the 1.3 million active-duty military personnel will not receive their first full paycheck following the shutdown. Lawmakers in both parties — particularly those representing military-heavy districts — are already feeling the pressure.
A bill authored by Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., would ensure troops are paid during the shutdown, and has nearly 150 co-sponsors, including more than 100 Republicans. But Johnson argued that such a bill was unnecessary because the stopgap bill passed by the House on Sept. 19 includes funding for the troops.
During a call-in show on C-SPAN Thursday, a woman identified as Samantha from Fort Belvoir, Va., made a personal plea to Johnson, telling the speaker that if her active-duty husband wasn’t paid by the 15th, “my kids could die” because his family won’t be able to pay for their medications.
Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump told reporters that Democrats were to blame for the shutdown and not paying workers, but he predicted that paying the troops “probably will happen.”
Johnson insisted again Friday that the House would not vote on a standalone measure to pay the military. “The Republican Party is in favor of paying the troops,” he said. “It is the Democrats who are demonstrating repeatedly, eight times already, that they do not want the soldiers to be paid.”
Shortage of air traffic controllers
This week, travelers got a glimpse of how shortages of air traffic controllers and TSA workers could wreak havoc on the nation’s airports.
Airports from Washington and Miami to Denver and Las Vegas faced flight delays as officials said they were dealing with an uptick in air traffic controllers calling in sick. Hollywood Burbank Airport in the Los Angeles area operated for several hours Monday without air traffic controllers due to staffing issues.
As federal airport workers miss pay for the first time during Friday’s shutdown, the number of them complaining of illness could increase. Delays could worsen in the coming days, further straining the country’s air system, the economy and the patience of already frustrated travelers.
Trump officials are paying close attention to personnel issues. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Thursday threatened to fire “problem child” air traffic controllers if they failed to show up for work without a good reason.
But lawmakers said widespread flight delays and cancellations could force Trump and Republicans to the negotiating table they avoided during the shutdown fight. The shortage of air traffic controllers and the travel disruptions they caused helped end the 34-day shutdown during Trump’s first term — the longest in the nation’s history.
“Of all the factors that led to President Trump in 2019 [to say] “We had to solve this problem, it was the air traffic control problem,” said Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va. Reagan National Airport in his home state experienced staffing shortages and delays this week; it is one of three major airports in the region that members of Congress use to commute between Washington and their homes.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, said he watched television coverage this week of flight delays and long lines at airports. He thinks Trump has seen the same compelling images and could be motivated to make a deal if things get worse.
“Here’s a guy watching TV all the time…the visuals. People making videos of these long lines,” Blumenthal said. “It’s a black eye for the country. (…) This should bring them to the negotiating table.”
Rising health care premiums
Democrats’ main demand in the impasse is to extend expiring tax credits under Obamacare, which have helped make premiums more affordable for families. And even though the money technically expires on Dec. 31, voters are starting to feel the sticker shock.
This month, insurers are sending notices of sharp premium increases before registrations open from November 1, in just over three weeks.
Democrats are betting the pressure will ease Republican Party resistance to extending that money as part of a bill to reopen the government.
“It’s been important to raise the issue with our colleagues and the American public, and also to emphasize the urgency of the issue,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., author of a bill to permanently extend Obamacare money, told NBC News.
“A number of people thought insurance didn’t expire until the end of December, so it wasn’t a problem. And didn’t realize that insurance companies were setting rates right now… It’s a growing thing on top of the cost of food, electricity, rent, child care and all the other expenses that people incur,” Shaheen continued.
Johnson, however, maintained that the issue of health care funding can be “discussed, deliberated, considered and debated in October and November” after the government reopens. But he faces a divided conference and has made no promise to hold a vote on the issue.
“I support the speaker,” said conservative Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn.
Moderate Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., said he also supports the speaker’s strategy.
“A short, clean CR has always been good in the past and should be good now,” Bacon told NBC News. “Most Republicans are willing to negotiate tax credits as part of the appropriations process.”
But far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., publicly criticizes Johnson and his party for not having a plan to deal with looming premium increases that she says will harm members of her own family.
“When it gets to the point where families are spending $1,500 to $2,000 a month and looking at increases in their insurance premiums,” Greene said, “I think that’s unforgivable.”
