How the Mayans were able to accurately predict solar eclipses for centuries
Eclipse table from the Dresden Codex. Credit: Scientific advances (2025). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adt9039
The Mayan civilization, originating in Central America, was one of the most advanced ancient civilizations, known for its significant achievements in astronomy and mathematics. This includes precise calendars and detailed celestial records, but scientists do not fully understand all the details of their calculations. However, new research sheds light on how they predicted future eclipses with remarkable accuracy.
A study published in the journal Scientific advances analyzes the Dresden Codex, the most famous document of Mayan astronomy. The researchers particularly focused on the eclipse prediction chart that covers 405 lunar months. Previous studies have not been able to fully explain the underlying structure of the table or the mechanism used by the Maya to keep it updated for centuries. This article fills in these missing details.
The research overturns a long-held assumption that the table’s 405-month length meant it was created solely to predict eclipses. Instead, the authors of the article claim that it was first designed as a lunar calendar to align with the 260-day astrological calendar of the Mayans.
They used modeling and statistics to show that the length of the 405-month cycle, or 11,960 days, aligns much more closely with the 260-day calendar (46 x 260 = 11,960) than it does with the solar and lunar eclipse cycles.
“Mayan calendar scholars anticipated solar eclipses by correlating their occurrences with the dates of their 260-day divinatory calendar,” the researchers write in their paper. “The 405-month eclipse table was derived from a lunar calendar in which the 260-day divinatory calendar was proportioned to the lunar cycle.” In other words, the Mayan model of predicting solar eclipses came directly from their model of tracking the moon and harmonizing their calendars.
Incredible precision
Researchers have also solved the mystery of how the Mayans were able to be so accurate in their predictions. Previously, it was thought that once a table was finished, they would start a new one. But the latest study shows that to maintain correct predictions for more than 700 years, the Mayans used a system of overlapping tables. Instead of starting a new table, they would reset the next table to precise internal values 223 or 358 months before the end of the previous table in order to correct small astronomical errors that accumulate over time.
The research team reached this conclusion by mathematically modeling the table’s predictions against a historical database of actual solar eclipses visible to the Maya between 350 and 1150 CE. Updating the table in this way ensured that it could predict every observable solar eclipse for centuries.
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More information:
John Justeson et al, The Design and Reconstructable History of the Dresden Codex Mayan Eclipse Table, Scientific advances (2025). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adt9039
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