How TNF matchup between Rams and Seahawks impacts NFC West, No. 1 seed races

The Los Angeles Rams have their destiny in their hands when it comes to a second straight NFC West title – and the conference’s No. 1 seed. The same can be said of the Seattle Seahawks when it comes to the division crown, but their path is much tougher.

La Carolina (7-7) and the San Francisco 49ers. (10-4), which means it’s of the utmost importance that they win their matchup with the Rams at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday Night at Lumen Field.

The Rams are coming off their eighth win in nine games, a 41-34 triumph over the Detroit Lions in Week 15. Matthew Stafford added to his MVP credentials by throwing a pair of touchdown passes to bring his total from 37 to 37 and posting his third 300-yard performance of the season with 368 yards as he ranks second in the league with 3,722.

Kyren Williams was also a big contributor against the Lions, throwing for 78 yards and two touchdowns. The 25-year-old has found the end zone at least once in six of his last seven games, including Los Angeles’ opener against Seattle on Nov. 16 when he gained 91 yards on just 12 carries.

The Seahawks have also won eight of their last nine games and extended their winning streak to four games with last week’s 18-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. All of Seattle’s offense against Indianapolis came from Jason Myers, who converted all six of his field goal attempts, including a 56-yarder with 18 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

Wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL with 1,541 receiving yards, finished the win with 113 on seven catches for his ninth 100-yard effort of the year. One of them came against the Rams in Week 11, when he completed nine passes for 105 yards in that contest. However, Sam Darnold struggled in the game as he tied his career high with four interceptions and failed to throw a touchdown pass.

The Rams have already secured a trip to the playoffs and would boost their chances of winning both their 16th NFC West title and a first-round bye with a victory on Thursday. In addition to currently holding the tiebreaker against Seattle, Los Angeles is one game ahead of the Chicago Bears in the race for first place in the conference, which would mark the fourth time they have accomplished the feat.

A win would secure the Seahawks a playoff spot and put them in the driver’s seat for what would be their 12th overall division title and 10th NFC West crown. It would also give them the opportunity to finish with the No. 1 seed for the fourth time in franchise history.

SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team currently believes Los Angeles has the best chance to win the NFC West. According to the team’s ITL model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, the Rams have a 56 percent chance of winning the division title heading into Thursday night’s showdown, and that would increase to nearly 89 percent with a win against the Seahawks but drop to less than 24 percent with a loss.

The model says the Seahawks’ odds of winning the division are currently nearly 31.5% and will jump to just under 60% with a win against the Rams. However, a loss would only give them a 3% chance of finishing atop the NFC West.

Given the remaining schedule for both teams, it is imperative that the Seahawks beat the Rams for just the second time in their last six meetings overall and in Seattle. When the clubs met at Lumen Field last season, Smith-Njigba scored his second touchdown of the game with 51 seconds left in the fourth quarter to help tie the game before Stafford threw his second TD pass of the game midway through overtime to give Los Angeles a 26-20 victory.

The Rams have the NFL’s second-ranked receiver in Puka Nacua (1,367 yards), although they may be without Davante Adams, who leads the league with 14 touchdown receptions but is dealing with a hamstring injury. Seattle is a 1.5-point favorite over Los Angeles in the latest DraftKings odds, and the ITL team model projects a 23-22 win for the Seahawks.