Saudi crown prince returns to U.S. for first time after diplomatic isolation

Whether considered a visionary reformer or a murderous despot, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, will take a major step toward returning to the international community when he meets with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

Bin Salman, 40, became an international pariah after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a staunch critic of his government, in 2018, although Trump defended the Saudi government even after the CIA concluded that the crown prince himself had ordered the killing.

Then-President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia in 2022 and controversially punched Bin Salman, an image that went viral, at a time when most leaders had shunned the crown prince. Bin Salman said in 2019 that he took “full responsibility” for Khashoggi’s killing since it happened on his watch, but denied ordering it.

But it is bin Salman’s trip on Tuesday, his first during Trump’s second term, that will be seen more widely as a step toward accepting a return to the diplomatic fold.

“He’s a different character now. Obviously the questions about how he governs and the internal repression, those things haven’t gone away. But he’s a changed character; it’s a changed moment. And, I think, important symbolically in that sense,” said Michael Wahid Hanna, director of the U.S. program at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based global nonprofit that works to prevent conflict.

He added: “He is at the heart of what this administration wants to do in the region. »

Trump and bin Salman are expected to sign economic and defense deals, a White House official told NBC News.

Before bin Salman even set foot in the United States, Trump confirmed Monday at an Oval Office event that he would be willing to approve the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets to the kingdom, a controversial move that could shift the balance of power in the Middle East, where Israel is the main beneficiary of advanced American military technology.

Trump’s announcement of the sale may not lead to Saudi Arabia receiving the F-35s in the near future, analysts say.

“The devil is kind of in the details,” said Andrew Leber, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who has done extensive research on Saudi Arabia, pointing out that a similar deal announced with the United Arab Emirates had failed.

He added: “This deal ultimately failed because of a combination of U.S. concerns about maintaining Israel’s qualitative military advantage and concerns about the scale of leaks of U.S. security technology to China. »

The possibility of normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be a key element of the negotiations, according to the White House official. The official said Trump “hopes” the kingdom will soon rejoin the Abraham Accords, the 2020 U.S.-brokered deal that led a number of regional countries to establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel, although analysts are skeptical of a breakthrough.

“There is no short-term normalization horizon at the moment,” said Hanna of the ICG.

“The risks for Mohammed bin Salman are extremely high if he adheres to the Abraham Accords,” recognizes Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. He noted that the Saudis had made it clear that they would need some form of Israeli engagement on the path to Palestinian statehood – something the Israelis have publicly rejected.

The crown prince’s strategy was generally to “minimize the risks to his reign,” Gerges explained.

Although bin Salman does not announce the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel, he has won favor with Trump as one of the regional leaders who helped bring about the current ceasefire between the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas militants.

Trump has long touted his deal-making abilities, and according to a senior administration official, a number of deals are expected to be announced Tuesday, including a multibillion-dollar Saudi investment in U.S. artificial intelligence infrastructure, enhanced cooperation in civilian nuclear energy and fulfilling the Saudis’ $600 billion investment pledge through dozens of targeted investments.

Critics have raised questions about Trump’s affinity for mixing personal matters with diplomacy. Its properties have hosted tournaments for years for the Saudi-backed company LIV Golf. And the New York Times reported this weekend that the Trump Organization is considering a huge real estate deal with Saudi Arabia.

“There are huge ethical questions here,” said Leber of the Carnegie Endowment. “It’s very obvious that all the Gulf states have understood that to get to Trump, you have to find a way to enrich his family members, enrich his friends, and promise to eventually enrich them.”

Human rights groups have long argued that governments dealing with Saudi Arabia should also pressure the country’s leaders over its dismal human rights record. In August, a Human Rights Watch report noted an “unprecedented increase” in executions in 2025, with 241 people killed as of August 5.

Yet restrictions on women, another regular criticism of the kingdom, have been eased, and bin Salman has tried to open the company to Western exports, such as Ultimate Fighting Championship matches and comedy shows, although comedians who recently appeared at a comedy festival in Riyadh, including Louis CK and Bill Burr, were criticized for performing there.

“It is not a political reform in the sense of creating space for real politics, but it has absolutely, fundamentally reoriented Saudi society and changed the role of religious authorities,” said ICG’s Hanna. “There has been an incredible social change that has happened in part because it operates without real constraints.”