Saunders: Well, I’m not one for hyperbole, but as I think about the effects already that this war has had on Iran and the civilians in Iran—that’s where I start. And clearly there will be casualties, further casualties for the U.S. military, and we can’t discount that. And then also in the Gulf, right? All these different Gulf nations. You are now talking about a further devastation of Iran through attacks on civilian infrastructure and in retaliation likely attacks on infrastructure all across the Gulf. Desalination plant attacks could result in a massive humanitarian disaster in the Gulf. And then you think about the price of oil and jet fuel and fertilizer, and that could end up impoverishing millions far from the battlefield.
That’s the kind of reach—the Russian invasion of Ukraine had some of those global effects, but actually this seems like it’s going to be worse. I mean, the oil and energy and economics people that I read—since that’s not my area—they definitely seem way more worried about this. In Asia, you already see signs of conflict over fuel. You could impoverish many millions with the cost of food, and farmers in the United States might be devastated. Even just the cost of living may reduce living standards in places like Europe, right? Which have already been under strain.
So when you think about the global effect of what Trump is talking about and the likely retaliation it would invite from Iran—I mean, it’s just, if he does this, that’s what they will do. The effect to me seems just beyond anything I can even wrap my head around. The Iraq War was absolutely devastating in so many ways. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is still devastating in so many ways. But just the sheer number of things that will reverberate from this, on top of the immediate human toll and civilian toll from the fighting, is kind of unfathomable.
