Hurricane season – More than average impacts predicted for SW Florida
Early hurricane forecasts call for an average hurricane season, but Southwest Florida is included in an area that has above-average storm impacts between June 1 and November 30.
AccuWeather released its first forecast for 2026 on March 25 and predicts 11 to 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher.
This forecast includes three to five direct impacts on the United States.
For comparison, the historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
“This year we are very concerned about rapid intensification, very similar to the last two years,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster. “The risk of rapidly intensifying storms and hurricanes is linked to the abundance of warm water, which serves as storm fuel.”
What does this mean for our region?
Well, an AccuWeather map shows where impacts are expected to be greatest this hurricane season.
The former Trico Shrimp location is seen on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. The business was destroyed during Hurricane Ian. There is a land lease fight between Lee County and Trico Shrimp.
Naples and Fort Myers are right on the edge of a strip along the Gulf where higher-than-average storm impacts are expected this year.
This high-impact zone extends northward along the Gulf Coast and into Louisiana.
But the exact impacts on Southwest Florida this season are completely unknown at this point. Each season is like a whole new roll of the dice, and it only takes one storm to destroy a community.
The waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf are already very warm this year, and warmer waters may provide additional fuel for growing tropical storms.
“These waters are also exceptionally, exceptionally warm,” DaSilva said, adding that warm water reaches hundreds of feet deep in most of the hurricane basin. “That is why, once again, we are very concerned about the rapid intensification of the upcoming hurricane season.”
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El Nino could have an impact at the end of summer
La Niña is currently in place and the weather phenomenon is currently tending towards neutrality.
National Weather Service forecasters predict El Nino conditions will set in later in the summer. El Niño tends to suppress the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes.
“Neutral is expected to continue through the first part of the summer, and then we will begin the transition to El Niño,” said Nicole Carlisle, NWS meteorologist in Ruskin. “Generally speaking, wind shear increases, which creates a more hostile environment for storms. So this can help reduce their numbers.”
This is not to say that storms will not form in late summer, just that the environment is not conducive to tropical activity.
“There’s size and movement and speed and a lot of other factors that come into play,” Carlisle said.
AccuWeather also warns of a chance of rapid intensification, when a storm grows significantly over a short period of time.
The National Weather Service will release its hurricane season forecast before June, as will hurricane experts at Colorado State University.
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Chad Gillis is an environmental reporter and can be reached by email at cgillis@news-press.com.
This article was originally published on Marco Eagle: Hurricane Season – Above average impacts predicted for Southwest Florida.
