US and Iran head to Geneva to continue talks on Iran’s nuclear program. What to know : NPR

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Negotiators from the United States and Iran will hold talks tomorrow in Geneva, Switzerland. The United States is threatening war over a list of demands that includes Iran’s nuclear program. Vali Nasr follows all of this. He is at Johns Hopkins University and is a long-time expert on Iran and its region – he has been invited here several times. Vali, welcome back.

VALI NASR: Thank you. It’s good to be with you.

INSKEEP: OK, from the outside, Iran looks pretty weak right now. They were pounded last year by Israel and the United States. They are faced with demonstrations at home, which they have had to repress very violently. But do you think Iranian leaders think they are in a weak position?

NASR: Yes, I think they think they are in a weak position, not only because they have been attacked militarily and their nuclear program has been damaged, but also because the protests that we have seen in Iran are also putting enormous domestic pressure on them. They are therefore in a vulnerable position.

INSKEEP: Does that mean they would be willing to make concessions or make a deal with the United States?

NASR: Yes, they would be willing to make concessions, but I don’t think they want to give up. So it depends on what the United States is asking for. But I also think they are wary of the United States. They fear being attacked either way, whether they make a deal, whether they negotiate or not. And I think they’re approaching the negotiations with a lot of trepidation.

INSKEEP: Oh, that’s very interesting. And I’m thinking about the scope of an agreement. The Iranians appear willing to allow some limitations on their nuclear program, but the United States wants more – much more than that.

NASR: That’s true. If the United States demanded total surrender, it would be very difficult for Iran to accept. And of course, one must ask: what is the United States offering in exchange for this degree of concession? But beyond that, I think the Iranians are looking for language that allows both sides to claim victory at the table.

INSKEEP: I want to follow up on something we heard on this program last week. We spoke with Mark Dubowitz, who was an outspoken supporter of the war. He works at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. And I pointed out to him that Iran’s neighbors – the Persian Gulf countries – really don’t seem to want this war because they don’t want to be attacked. They called for U.S.-led negotiations. And Dubowitz pointed that out – he said, well, they say different things in public and in private. And I understand some private remarks that I think he’s referring to. But do you think Iran’s neighbors in the Persian Gulf would welcome war?

NASR: No, I don’t think they would welcome war because they’re not sure that the United States could attack Iran in a way that, A, Iran wouldn’t retaliate, and secondly, that it wouldn’t become a bigger and bigger war that would hurt their economic prospects in the future. It is not out of love for Iran that they resist the war. This is out of pure self-interest and the fact that the United States cannot credibly show them that it can protect the Gulf countries from the repercussions of the war.

INSKEEP: What’s the worst case scenario here?

NASR: I mean, the worst case scenario is that – A, the United States would find itself entangled in a long-term war. You know, the United States can start wars, inflict a lot of damage, but it cannot control the course of wars. And we may also see a collapse of the Iranian state, in a country of 95 million people with advanced missiles and nuclear material. The chaos could appear larger and more dangerous than what we witnessed in Iraq or Syria.

INSKEEP: Some people, including the outside opposition, would very much like to see the collapse of the Iranian government. Are you saying that maybe this isn’t as desirable an outcome as it seems?

NASR: Well, they expect a government collapse that would be immediately replaced by an open, pro-Western democratic government, but that is unlikely. When we talk about the collapse of a government, we are talking about scenarios like those we saw in Iraq after the US invasion, in Syria or in Libya, not a smooth transition to a new order.

REGISTRATION: OK. Vali Nasr, we will continue to follow your analysis and continue to follow the news from Geneva this week, where American and Iranian negotiators will be in the same city, although we do not know if they will speak directly. Vali, thank you very much.

NASR: Thank you.

INSKEEP: He’s at Johns Hopkins University and also at the Center for Strategic International Studies.

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