Stefanik opens commanding lead in NY GOP governor primary race poll

EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., has opened a sizable lead in New York’s Republican primary for governor, winning support from GOP county chairs, state lawmakers and Conservative Party leaders across the state, a consolidation of support that party officials say leaves Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with virtually no path to the nomination.

Stefanik’s support now represents more than 75 percent of the New York Republican Party’s weighted vote, an overwhelming advantage that makes her the presumptive nominee and would require any rival to petition to get on the ballot.

Under New York rules, that means gathering at least 15,000 signatures from registered Republicans statewide, Gothamist reported.

Party members describe the scale of Stefanik’s initial support as unprecedented for a GOP gubernatorial race in recent cycles, especially so far ahead of the state convention.

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Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., all but clinched the GOP nomination in the primary race to become New York’s next governor in 2026, according to state GOP chairs. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

They argue that Stefanik’s name recognition, national fundraising network and county-level organizing effectively closed the primary before it began, while Blakeman failed to gain traction outside of Long Island.

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Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y. hopes to remove Democrat Kathy Hochul from office. Stefanik’s campaign says Hocul is “the worst governor in America.” (Faith and Freedom Coalition)

Stefanik benefits from a much broader candidacy in New York.

“Elise is honored to have garnered the support of 58 county Republican party chairs, representing more than 75 percent of the weighted Republican Party of New York vote at the convention,” Stefanik spokeswoman Bernadette Breslin told Fox News Digital.

“According to two independent polls, Elise is the strongest candidate against Hochul and has the highest name and most favorable polling. Her strong support across the state is only growing as she gains the support of prominent GOP leaders, including 40 of New York’s 45 Conservative Party organizations. New York Republicans are fully united behind the common goal of firing Kathy Hochul to save New York, and they have put their faith in Elise to achieve this.”

This consolidation extends well beyond county chairs. Fourteen Republican senators, including Senate Republican Leader Rob Ortt, supported Stefanik for governor. So there are 10 county leaders from across New York state, adding weight to the suburban, upstate and rural areas that traditionally anchor GOP turnout. Upstate chairmen who have met with both candidates say Blakeman’s attempts to change the narrative have failed.

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Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, center, delivered a speech alongside elected officials and business leaders to oppose the corporate tax increase on Nov. 17, 2025. (County Executive Office)

“We appreciated County Executive Blakeman meeting with us during his visit to the Upstate, but nothing discussed at the meeting impacted our unwavering support for Elise Stefanik and her campaign to save New York,” said Schenectady County GOP Chair Liz Joy. “Elise has a long history of supporting our Upstate communities, and we are confident she is the right person to address the challenges New Yorkers face.”

Trish Turner, Ontario County GOP chair and Finger Lakes regional chair, said Stefanik’s early organizing activities impressed leaders across the state.

“It was a great honor to welcome Congresswoman Elise Stefanik to my home for a gathering of Republican county chairs from the Finger Lakes, Western New York, Central New York and the South,” Turner said.

“The energy and enthusiasm in the room was inspiring, and it was clear that many leaders from across our regions were excited about his candidacy for governor of New York State. Congresswoman Stefanik’s vision, leadership, and deep commitment to New Yorkers was evident throughout our conversations.

Dutchess County GOP Chairman Mike McCormack echoed that sentiment, telling Fox News Digital, “I’m with Elise, and that doesn’t change. We need to focus on saving our state, and she is New York’s hope.”

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President Donald Trump is greeted by Nassau County, New York Executive Bruce Blakeman after arriving at Republic Airport on Air Force One September 26, 2025 in Farmingdale, New York. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Even as Stefanik’s margins grow, Blakeman has continued to visit upstate counties and tried to compare himself to an executive-focused candidate running one of the state’s largest suburban counties. In previous public remarks, Blakeman argued that Stefanik’s national profile distracted from issues specific to New York. But GOP chairs say those arguments haven’t changed their “unwavering support” for Stefanik.

Blakeman’s voting record has also become a talking point among Republican officials who portray Stefanik as a proven winner. During his decades-long political career, Blakeman lost a race for state comptroller by more than 30 points in 1998, a race for the Nassau County Legislature in 1999, dropped out of the race for New York City mayor in 2009, lost a 2010 U.S. Senate primary by more than 20 points, and lost a 2014 congressional race in NY-14, the same year that Stefanik won his seat.

Stefanik, on the other hand, has never lost an election and collects each year what Blakeman has collected over several cycles. Stefanik received more than 72 percent of the weighted vote on the first day she launched her gubernatorial campaign and has only widened her margin since.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., leaves a House Republican Conference meeting with President Donald Trump on the budget reconciliation bill at the U.S. Capitol on May 20, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

With the support of 40 of New York’s 45 Conservative Party organizations, which control their own ballot lines, she is able to secure both Republican and Conservative Party nominations well in advance of either party’s convention. Early unity around Stefanik could allow Republicans to focus their resources on the general election well ahead of schedule, a rare advantage for Republican candidates in deep blue New York.

The New York Republican Party convention is scheduled for early next year, and the petition period will open soon after. If Stefanik’s level of support holds through the convention, she would secure the nomination outright, leaving any challenger to attempt the 15,000-signature petition process instead of going through formal party approval.

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For now, pollster James Johnson calls the primary a “done deal.”

“Stefanik appears to be dominating the Republican vote. It’s a fait accompli,” Johnson said.