Immigration to U.S. declines for first time in 50 years, study shows

For the first time in addition to half a century, immigrants leaving the United States are more numerous than those who arrive, a phenomenon that can point out to the historical efforts of the mass deportation of President Trump has the planned effect.

An analysis of the census data published by Pew Research Center on Thursday noted that between January and June, the population born abroad in the United States had decreased by more than a million people.

Millions of people arrived at the border between 2021 and 2023 in search of refuge in America after the pandemic emergency COVID-19, which ravaged many of their countries of origin. In 2023, California housed 11.3 million immigrants, or about 28.4% of the national total, according to PEW.

In January, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States, the greatest number registered, but in the months that have followed, those who left or were expelled deported those who arrived-the first drop since the 1960s. In June, the number living in the United States fell to 51.9 million. Pew did not calculate the number of undocumented immigrants.

Trump and his supporters applauded the exodus, the president declaring “the promises made. Promised held ”, in an article on social networks this month.

“Seven months after the start of his second term, it is clear that the president did what he said that he would do by restoring the law and order at our southern border and by removing the violent illegal immigrants of our nation,” the Secretary of Home Security, Kristi Noem in a USA Today column on Thursday. “The two actions were necessary for the peace and prosperity of the Americans.”

But some experts warn that such declines will have negative economic effects on the United States if it continues, causing a shortage of labor while the American birth rate continues to lower.

“Looking at the future, we will have to count on immigrant workers to fulfill numerous jobs in this country,” said Victor Narro, project manager at the UCLA Labor Center. “We like it or not, demographic data will change in this country. It is already changing, but it will be more pronounced in the future, in particular with the decline in workers born.”

The PEW analysis highlights several policy changes that affected the number of immigrants in the country, starting during the mandate of the president of Biden at the time.

In June 2024, Biden signed a proclamation which prohibits migrants from looking for asylum along the American border with Mexico at the time when the passages are high, a change that was designed to make things more difficult for those who enter the country without prior authorization.

Trump, who campaigned on hard -line online immigration policies, signed a decree on the first day of his second term, declaring an “invasion” on the southern border. The move is seriously limited in the country by prohibiting people who arrive between the entrance ports of the asylum research or to invoke other protections which would allow them to stay temporarily in the United States

The widespread operations of the application of immigration in southern California began in June, which prompted lawyers and local leaders. The federal government responded to the deployment of thousands of navies and the national guard troops after the raids triggered dispersed demonstrations.

Internal security agents have arrested 4,481 undocumented immigrants in the Los Angeles region since June 6, the agency said this month.

Narro said that the decrease in immigrants described in the study may not be as serious as the numbers suggest it due to a reduction in response rates in the middle of increased application.

“When you have the climate you have today with fear of expulsion, to be stopped or owned by ice – everything that comes out of the Trump administration – people will be less willing to participate in the investigation and the documentation that goes in these reports,” said Narro.

Michael Capuano, research director at Federation for American Immigration Reform, a non -profit organization which advocates a reduction in immigration, said that the figures were in the right direction.

“We consider it as a positive start,” said Capuano. “Obviously, the border application is working now. The population begins to decrease. We would like to see that the trend will continue because, in the end, we believe that the policy of the last four years has proven unbearable. ”

Capuano does not agree that the decrease in immigrants will cause problems with the country’s workforce.

“We do not think in the end, there will be this huge disturbance,” he said. “There is no domain in which the Americans do not work. Pew notes in his own study that workers born to Americans are the majority in all areas of employment. ”

In 2023, last year with complete data, 33 million immigrants were part of the country’s workforce, including around 10 million undocumented people. About 19% of workers were immigrants in 2023, compared to 15% two decades earlier, according to PEW.

“Immigrants are an integral part of American society,” said Toby Higbie, professor of history and work studies at the UCLA. “Those who direct the federal government currently imagine that they can withdraw all immigrants from this society, but that will simply not happen. This will not happen because the children of immigrants will fight against this and because our country needs immigrant workers to operate the economy. ”

The United States experienced negative net immigration in the 1930s during the Great Depression when at least 400,000 Mexicans and American Mexicans left the country, often following the government’s pressure and repatriation programs. Shortly after, the United States implemented the bracero program in 1942 in which the United States allowed millions of Mexican citizens to work in the country to cope with work shortages during the Second World War.

Higbie predicts that the drop in immigration will not last long, especially if the prices of goods are increasing among the shortages of labor.

“You could say that there is a cycle here where we invite immigrants to work in our economy, then there is a political reaction of some in our country, and they expel them, then we invite them,” he said. “I suspect that the Trump administration, after having followed this process of brutally deporting people, will turn around and offer a program of guest workers in order to maintain a docile workforce of immigrants.”