In battleground Wisconsin, the 2026 elections are poised to bring a ‘changing of the guard’

A year and a half after Donald Trump’s victory in Wisconsin, Democrats sense a shift in mood that could reshape the balance of power in this critical battleground state.

Over the past three months, seven Republican state lawmakers have announced their retirements — including party leaders in the Assembly and Senate — boosting Democrats’ hopes that they could take control of at least one legislative chamber for the first time in 16 years.

A huge fundraising advantage in next month’s open Wisconsin Supreme Court race gives liberals confidence they can further increase their majority on a bench that until a few years ago was long dominated by conservatives. The Liberals are even already considering another seat next year, after a conservative judge said she would not run for reelection.

And Democrats hope another state Supreme Court victory would add momentum heading into a gubernatorial race that would bring meaningful change, regardless of the outcome. A large field of Democratic candidates is vying to succeed Gov. Tony Evers and will likely face the Republican Party’s favorite Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.

“These retirements largely confirmed what we already thought, which is that we have a tremendous opportunity this year in Wisconsin,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Devin Remiker said in an interview, referring to Republican lawmakers who declined to run for office. “I think there’s a very powerful disaster brewing for the Republicans, and I want to capitalize on that by winning the Democratic trio. »

Recent polls highlight that the political wind is currently blowing in the direction of the Democrats. A Marquette University Law School poll conducted in mid-March found that about half of Wisconsin Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about voting in the technically nonpartisan Supreme Court elections in April, compared with a third of Republicans. And the survey showed that 56% of registered voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance. That’s the highest share of any Marquette poll in Wisconsin during the president’s two terms, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted.

The 2026 elections mark a continuation of Democrats’ efforts to dismantle Republicans’ hold on state power, which began in 2010, when the GOP won a trio. Over two terms, Republican Gov. Scott Walker, with majorities in the Legislature and the Supreme Court, has embraced a broad conservative agenda.

Since then, Democrats have taken control of the governorship and the Supreme Court and now aim to maintain their advantages while making inroads in the Legislature this year, with more competitive maps in place. Most notable among the recent retirements is that of Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who has held the position since Walker first took office.

“There’s definitely a changing of the guard. The top three people in the Capitol today won’t all be there a year from now. There will be a significant change in terms of who will be making the decisions in this building next year,” said Mark Graul, a Republican strategist from Wisconsin.

In addition to Vos, Wisconsin Senate President Devin LeMahieu, who has held the position since 2021, announced last week that he would not seek another term. Of the seven incumbent Republican lawmakers, all but one have served in the Legislature for at least a decade, and in many cases much longer.

The exodus of Republican lawmakers is also inextricably linked to the rise of liberals to the state Supreme Court. Armed with their first majority on the high court in 15 years after a costly and high-profile 2023 election, liberals quickly overturned state legislative maps that heavily favored the Republican Party. Democrats then made substantial gains in both legislative chambers in the 2024 elections. This year, they would need two seats to control the state Senate and five seats to have a majority in the Assembly.

After retaining their majority in an even costlier Supreme Court race last year, liberals could put control of the judiciary out of conservatives’ reach for at least the rest of the decade in less than two weeks.

Democratic-backed Chris Taylor holds a clear fundraising and ad spending advantage over Republican-backed Maria Lazar in the race to fill a seat held by retired conservative judge Rebecca Bradley. The election was much quieter than the last two judicial races in Wisconsin, with 46% of voters saying they were undecided in the new Marquette poll. But Taylor held a slight lead with 30% support, compared to Lazar’s 22%.

Democrats said they were encouraged by the early voting data in the race, even though turnout is nowhere near lower than in last year’s election.

Meanwhile, the race for governor continues to take shape. Of the eight Democratic candidates included in Marquette’s poll, only one, former lieutenant governor and Senate candidate Mandela Barnes, had a name identification rate above 50 percent. The primary will mark a generational shift for the party, as the leading candidates are all much younger than the 74-year-old Evers.

Wisconsin Republican Party spokeswoman Anika Rickard rejected the idea that the string of retirements of Republican lawmakers would fuel Democratic gains and expressed optimism about her party’s prospects in the Supreme Court and gubernatorial elections as well.

“I don’t think their departures indicate anything when it comes to flipping the Senate or the Assembly. We’re confident we’ll keep both,” she said. “The energy is still on our side, not on the Democrats’ side.”

Democrats and Democratic-backed candidates have won 18 of Wisconsin’s last 23 statewide elections. But that hasn’t affected its status as a swing state. The last three presidential elections in Wisconsin, two of which Trump won, were decided by less than one point. Regardless of what happens in the state this year over the next seven months, it will once again be at the center of the 2028 map.

At this point, Graul said Democrats’ recent run of success is less about what they’ve accomplished and more about their ability to tap into anti-Trump sentiment, particularly when the president is not on the ballot.

“What makes Wisconsin in 2026 a good year for Democrats is what happens in Washington, not what happens in Wisconsin,” he said.