In Nevada, economic concerns threaten to wipe away Trump and the GOP’s Latino voter gains

LAS VEGAS — Matt Payan, co-owner and operator of a rare Hispanic brewery in Nevada, said it’s been a “very slow and scary summer” for that city’s economy.

“As the summer slowly winds down, business is slowly picking up, but not as much as we had expected from last year’s numbers,” he said.

Payan said his company avoids politics in the brewery at his North 5th Street Brewing Co. But he said it feels financial pressure from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which forced the company to cut back on canning its own beers, making it harder to distribute the product.

“Prices for canned goods have gone up so much that we can’t keep up with that cost. Unfortunately, we can’t do as much as we should to meet demand,” Payan said, while hoping the tariffs can be reversed to make finances more manageable.

“The cost of living has been a real burden on all of us, including our employees. As demand and costs increase, our employees must earn more money to simply survive,” he added. “Additionally, the average customer who comes to us now faces a higher cost of living, which means our regulars tend to turn away as they now need to save and use their resources for other important needs. »

Concerns about the economy, cost of living and shifts among Latino voters propelled Trump to victory in 2024 in Nevada, which turned to the Republican Party in a presidential election for the first time in two decades.

The economy topped Nevada voters’ list of concerns, and those who cited it as the most important issue supported Trump over Kamala Harris by a 3-to-1 margin, according to NBC News exit polls. Latinos, who made up about a fifth of voters, voted for Trump by 2 points over Harris after Joe Biden carried the group by 26 points in 2020.

That dynamic also paid off for Trump in other battleground states across the country, helping him retake the White House.

A year later, there are warning signs that Latino voters are becoming dissatisfied with the Republican Party. In two blue-leaning states, Virginia and New Jersey, they voted overwhelmingly for Democratic gubernatorial candidates earlier this month. And a recent poll finds that deep economic concerns persist among Latino voters in battleground districts heading into next year’s midterm elections, when control of the House is at stake.

The bipartisan Unidos US Latino Vote Initiative poll found that the cost of living and inflation remain by far the top issue for Hispanic voters in battleground districts in six key states. Among these voters, 31% approved of Trump’s job performance while 64% disapproved. And 83% said their current personal financial situation is “about the same” or “worse,” while 14% said it is “better.”

Democrats say Trump is paying the price for his excessive promises that he would cut costs from day one of his presidency.

“I think many voters who trusted what the president said during his campaign feel betrayed by his policies,” said Rep. Steven Horsford, Democrat of Nevada, who represents a swing district in the Las Vegas area. “He promised costs would go down. They’re going up. He said life would be easier. It’s harder.”

Jeff Burton, a longtime lobbyist and strategist for Republican leaders, said Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress have until the end of the first quarter of 2026 to lower prices.

“The American people expected inflation and costs to fall – and that is not the case,” he said. “If they don’t do it, it’s really going to affect the midterm elections. That’s the No. 1 problem. And the [House] the majority is at stake.”

Burton said the Treasury Department should quickly implement Trump’s “no tax on tips” policy that was included in his so-called “big, beautiful bill” earlier this year, and that the president’s team must show it is keeping its promises. The idea, which Trump adopted during his 2024 campaign, surprised Democrats, who have since supported versions of it.

“The cost of goods and inflation are going to determine who is in the majority next year. Everything else is marginal,” Burton said, warning that immigration is no longer an election issue for Republicans and that New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani will not be the “super national bogeyman that Republicans want” in 2026.

Other Republicans counter that Nevada’s voter shifts have been gradual and that the state has generally moved closer to the GOP in every presidential election since 2008. A spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee said its candidates will continue to work to win over Latinos, who could swing crucial House elections across the country.

“Democrats ignored Hispanic communities for more than a decade while millions of families rejected their radical, socialist agenda. Republicans are working tirelessly to win the support of Hispanics by implementing no tax on tips, reducing everyday costs, and protecting the opportunity to achieve the American dream,” NRCC Hispanic Press Secretary Christian Martinez said in an email.

Sen. Jacky Rosen, Democrat of Nevada, who stood up to Latinos and won re-election in 2024 on the same ballot as Trump, said there was also a backlash in the community over the president’s aggressive immigration raids.

“What I hear from them now is still the same thing: affordability and opportunity, plus what’s happening with immigration — the cruelty, the fear that has spread through the community,” Rosen said in an interview. She added that the combination of tariffs and immigration policies has caused tourism to plummet and “hurt everyone.”

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Democrat of Nevada, who is up for re-election in 2028, said Trump had “done the exact opposite” of what he promised in terms of cutting costs.

“You can’t tell people that what they’re seeing and thinking at the grocery store is a hoax,” she said.

Peter Guzman, president of the Nevada Latin Chamber of Commerce, said that overall his member companies believe the economic situation is about “the same” as last year. Concerns persist over prices – fueled by high gas prices and high interest rates – as well as slowing tourism.

“Inflation needs to come down,” he said. “Cost of goods and services: We rely heavily on construction here, and if it costs too much… then we won’t have construction and that will have devastating effects on the rest of the economy. »

Guzman added that there are some concerns related to immigration in the hospitality sector. “There is a little worry among my small restaurateurs because they see fewer people in restaurants and more in grocery stores,” he said. “And that could be due to immigration fears.”

Guzman said Trump could use his bully talk to push the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates. He welcomed the tax break for tips, saying it should be higher than the $25,000 deduction under the law — perhaps even unlimited. Workers can deduct up to this amount if they itemize and don’t use the standard deduction.

Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer of the influential Culinary Union, which represents hospitality workers who fuel the Las Vegas economy, said “concerns about the economy have worsened” since Trump took office.

“They were real [in 2024]“And as I told you last year, the Democrats were unfortunately somewhat tone-deaf, and it cost them the election, at least nationally and at the top of the ticket,” he said. “The Trump crisis is here and it’s happening. The same bad move that Biden did trying to tell people the economy is good – Trump is doing the same thing.”

Still, Pappageorge said he’s not happy with national Democrats and the party still has work to do to show Nevada voters they’re serious about addressing the costs of housing, health care, groceries and auto insurance.

“What we’re seeing today is the rebirth of ‘The Great Gatsby’ and the Gilded Age,” Pappageorge said. “The question is this: will the Democrats step up to the plate by sending a clear and consistent message demonstrating that they are with us?”