French-Saudi support for Palestine at UN: Some hope, some risks
Saudi France and Arabia will set the tone for the United Nations General Assembly sessions next week in New York when they co-organize a conference on Monday on the creation of a Palestinian State and the reconstruction of Gaza from the post-war period, among other questions.
A key characteristic of the conference will be the recognition of the Palestinian state by a number of European countries and other Western countries, including France, which will become the first permanent member of the Security Council which is also a member of the G7 to do so.
However, despite the fanfare, the conference will take place at a time when the creation of an independent Palestinian homeland – for a long time the Holy Grail of international diplomacy – has never seemed more distant.
Why we wrote this
The United Nations French-Saudi initiative next week supporting an independent Palestine, although symbolically important, is not without risk and is unlikely to lead to this long-sought-after objective. However, it is worth it, say the supporters to keep the discussion alive.
A ceasefire is not in the almost two year war in Gaza, triggered by the attack on October 7, 2023 of Hamas against southern Israel.
This week, Israel launched an offensive on the ground in the city of Gaza, which is allegedly aimed at eliminating the remains of Hamas in the Palestinian enclave, whose practical effect is to level what remains of the city. And during an event announcing thousands of new homes for Jewish settlers in occupied West Bank, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “This land is ours!” And promised that there will never be a Palestinian state.
Indeed, many experienced diplomats and experts from the Middle East who have worked for decades on what the UN calls the “Palestinian question” now say that the “two -state solution” – with an independent Palestine living alongside Israel in peace and shared security – is almost dead.
And yet, initiatives like the French -Saudi conference continue to occur – in part, some regional specialists say, because no one has found an acceptable and viable alternative to an iteration of a Palestinian homeland.
“Events next week will have a huge symbolic importance, but in fact, very little practical impact on the field. If anything, they could be counterproductive in the short term, ”explains Brian Katulis, principal member of the Middle East Institute in Washington.
“But even if the gap between what is happening in the corridors of diplomacy and on the ground remains wider than ever,” he adds, “it is important to maintain the discussion alive because it maintains the alternatives alternately at one point, the parties will have to come back.”
What is Macron motivated
French President Emmanuel Macron announced in August that his country would officially recognize a Palestinian state during meetings of the General Assembly. The United Kingdom, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand and others should join France.
Last Friday, the General Assembly approved 142 to 10 The New York Declaration Sponsored by the French calling for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Mr. Macron says he was motivated to act now by failure to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and by the deepening of the humanitarian crisis there. According to some French analysts, it has also been motivated that the United States under President Donald Trump will do nothing to hinder any Israeli action in Gaza.
The French president is also furious against the United States for having prohibited the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas and other Palestinian officials to enter the United States to attend meetings of the General Assembly-a decision which also prevents Mr. Abbas in the Conference on Monday.
Last week, a United Nations commission of inquiry found that Israel was committing a genocide in Gaza, a conclusion arrived earlier this year in a study carried out by international scholars in genocide. Israel rejects this characterization of his war against Hamas.
Regional experts consider the decision of Saudi Arabia to team up with France to welcome the conference of important Monday because it signals the unwavering insistence of the Kingdom on the creation of a Palestinian homeland. Saudi Arabia is considered to be the Grand Prix of the diplomatic effort started in Mr. Trump’s first administration to normalize the links between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
Despite the salutary aspect of the hope and the eternal springs of the Saudi push, however, some experts fear that the effort can do more harm than good. This point of view was recently taken up by the American ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who called the Western Warm of Recognition of Palestine “disastrous” and said that it had achieved “exactly the opposite” of what European countries wanted.
The danger in the opinion of certain analysts is that such actions isolate Israel more on the international scene, strengthening a conclusion that it has nothing to lose by acting unilaterally and by residing in international pressure.
As symbolic as this may be, the international push for the recognition of a Palestinian State “is likely to cause an Israeli response which makes the realization of a Palestinian State than more difficult,” explains Michael Koplow, director of policies of the Israeli political forum, a group that recommends a solution to two states to guarantee a secure and democratic Israel.
Offering two examples, he said that the movements have already attracted calls to Israel for the annexation of a large part of the occupied West Bank, when he worries, they could encourage Israel to “intensify the pressure on Palestinian authority to cause his collapse”.
On the Palestinian side, symbolic international gestures “could raise the hopes of the Palestinians in a way that turns around,” says Koplow, “when the Palestinians see that symbolism does nothing to improve their lives.”
In addition, he says that what may seem to be well -intentioned gestures is likely to lead to actions that still complicate possible diplomatic efforts – such as the recent passage from Spain to recognize a Palestinian state in the imposition of sanctions in Israel.
“Even if it remains symbolic, there is an important chance that it is not free,” he says.
Lack of alternatives
Mr. Katulis of the Middle East Institute said that the way will depend on the question of whether the key players in diplomatic efforts – Europeans and Arab countries – will make next week a ramp or a launch ramp – for example, for a serious post -war proposal.
“It depends on the conversation it triggers and monitoring efforts in the main countries of power,” he said. “We already know that Trump 2.0 will continue to provide the block for Israel, and that Netanyahu will continue to climb Trump like a bus,” he said. “But that opens up a certain space so that others fill the gap.”
What some experts say are clear – even after the devastating events of the last two years and all requiems for the solution to two states – is that no alternative exists in a form of Palestinian state.
“I can understand that the Israelis are not ready to speak of a Palestinian state with the trauma of October 7 still intense,” said Koplow. “But finally, when enough time is spent, you will see the Israelis starting to return to the two-state solution. The alternatives,” he said, “are not good for both sides.”
