The next election that will provide midterm clues: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the political officea newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki looks at the next big election on the calendar. Plus, we dive into Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House.
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—Adam Wollner
The next elections which will give clues to the mid-term
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
A solidly Republican congressional district in Middle Tennessee will provide new midterm clues in a special election scheduled for two weeks from today.
In theory, the race should be a layup for the GOP and its candidate, Matt Van Epps. Tennessee’s 7th District, which encompasses parts of Nashville and its suburbs and spans rural southern and western counties, voted for President Donald Trump by 22 points last year. No Democrat in the country currently represents a district this pro-Trump. The closest would be Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump won by nine points and is now represented by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.
But there are mitigating factors that make this race at least a little volatile. On the one hand, the broader political atmosphere – at least for the moment – has turned against the Republican Party. Trump’s approval rating fell this fall to the lowest level of his second term. This decline may have been caused by the government shutdown in October, which the public blames more on Trump and his party than on Democrats. And the two states with gubernatorial elections this month, New Jersey and Virginia, each produced Democratic landslides that surprised both parties.
Then consider that the Tennessee race is a special election, where turnout will be lower than normal and a highly motivated partisan base can make a real difference. It is clear that the Democrats currently have the most energetic base. The previous four special elections this year all saw Democratic candidates perform between 16 and 24 net points better than Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election.
As you can see, a similar Democratic overperformance in the Tennessee race would make it potentially competitive. And the first results already suggested an imbalance of motivation. Despite the general Republican trend in the district, turnout in the Democratic primary was just over 31,000 people, not far from the 36,854 participants on the Republican side.
A good performance on December 2 would reinforce Democrats’ optimism as 2026 approaches, just as it would amplify Republicans’ concerns. Midterm elections aren’t exactly level playing field; In all but three cases over the past century, the opposition party has won seats – often in large numbers.
And Republicans face an additional obstacle. Trump was returned to the White House in part thanks to “infrequent” voters who were attracted to him but showed little interest in supporting other Republican candidates in low-key elections like this one.
There is another mitigating factor at work in the Tennessee race. In Aftyn Behn, Democrats chose to nominate a candidate who has been nicknamed “AOC of Tennessee” by members of her own party. A state lawmaker previously supported by the Democratic Socialists of America, Behn is particularly vulnerable to attack in a district that has little taste for left-wing politics.
Republicans have made no secret of their intention to tie Democratic candidates across the country in 2026 to far-left party leaders like New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. If they end up holding that Tennessee seat decisively — and if Behn fails to make the kind of gains Democrats made in previous special elections — that could suggest they’re on the right track.
Related: A Trump-aligned super PAC is starting to run TV ads in the race to boost Van Epps, according to Owen Auston-Babcock. And the New York Times reports that former Vice President Kamala Harris took to the trail today for Behn.
Trump warmly welcomes Saudi crown prince
By Babak Dehghanpisheh, Katherine Doyle and Monica Alba
In his first visit to the White House since the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Mohammed bin Salman received a warm welcome from President Donald Trump, who contradicted U.S. intelligence and said the Saudi crown prince “knew nothing” about the assassination.
“You’re talking about someone who was extremely controversial,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s questions about Khashoggi. “A lot of people didn’t like this gentleman you’re talking about. Whether you like him or not, things happen, but [bin Salman] we knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that.
Trump began his speech by saying he was proud of the crown prince “in terms of human rights and everything else.”
Crown Prince Mohammed, 40, became an international pariah after the 2018 killing of Khashoggi, a staunch critic of his government. At the time, Trump defended the Saudi government even after the CIA concluded that the crown prince himself had ordered the killing.
The crown prince said in 2019 that he took “full responsibility” for Khashoggi’s killing since it happened on his watch, but denied ordering it.
Today, he defended the kingdom’s investigation into Khashoggi’s killing, which he said included internal reforms. A Saudi court sentenced five people to death for their involvement in the murder.
“This has been painful for us in Saudi Arabia,” Crown Price said, promising that “we are doing our best to ensure that this does not happen again.”
Hanan Elatr Khashoggi, the late journalist’s widow, responded to Trump on
Crown Prince Mohammed’s visit will be seen more widely as a step toward accepting a return to the diplomatic fold.
“He’s a different character now. Obviously the questions about how he governs and the internal repression, those things haven’t gone away. But he’s a changed character; it’s a changed moment. And, I think, important symbolically in that sense,” said Michael Wahid Hanna, director of the U.S. program at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based global nonprofit that works to prevent conflict.
He added: “He is at the heart of what this administration wants to do in the region. »
Read more →
🗞️ Other news of the day
- 📝The Epstein saga: The House voted 427-1 to pass a measure requiring the Justice Department to release all of its records relating to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and send them to the Senate. At a news conference with Epstein victims and their families, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said Trump’s handling of the case has been “destructive” to his MAGA movement.
- ⬅️ The Epstein saga, continued: Larry Summers, who was Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, said he would step back from public engagements following the recent release of his correspondence with Epstein. Read more →
- ☑️ Succession plan: The House has voted to reprimand outgoing Rep. Chuy Garcia for his ploy to select his Democratic successor for his Chicago-area congressional seat. Twenty-three Democrats joined nearly all Republicans in voting for the resolution. Read more →
- 🗺️ Results of redistricting: A federal court blocked Texas Republicans’ new congressional map from taking effect before the midterms. Gov. Greg Abbott said the state would appeal the decision. Read more →
- ⚖️ In the courts: A Tennessee judge ruled the Trump administration’s deployment of the National Guard to Memphis illegal. Read more →
- 🏫 Education shake-up: The Education Department is shifting some of its largest grant programs to other federal agencies, a major step in the Trump administration’s plan to dismantle the department. Read more →
- 🌍 Gaza Update: Trump’s peace plan for Gaza was adopted by a majority at the United Nations, although world powers were still divided over whether he could turn a fragile ceasefire into a long-term solution that has eluded the Middle East. Read more →
- 🗽 If you can come: New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani said he contacted the White House to arrange a meeting with Trump. Read more →
- Follow live political updates →
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.
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