Inside the Week 18 battle for the AFC North at the sportsbooks

After the Baltimore Ravens lost to the New England Patriots in Week 16, their hopes of winning the AFC North almost completely evaporated. To have a chance, they would have to beat the playoff-bound Green Bay Packers on the road and have the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the hapless Cleveland Browns in Week 17.

As fate would have it, both of those outcomes came to fruition, as the Ravens and Browns overcame their underdog status to win their games and set up a win-win AFC North showdown between Baltimore and Pittsburgh in Week 18. At DraftKings, the Ravens opened as 3-point favorites on the road against the Steelers.

Entering Week 17, Pittsburgh held odds of -1,400 to win the division, compared to +800 for the Ravens. DraftKings reports that over the past week, 87% of the revenue went to the Ravens for the AFC North, while BetMGM reported receiving 83% of the money to support Baltimore over the same period, although the Ravens remain the smallest liability for the division overall.

It’s been quite an odyssey for the Ravens to get to this point. After entering the season as favorites, they briefly relinquished their favorite status in favor of Pittsburgh before Week 7, before returning to the top of the odds board for several weeks. Then the Steelers’ head-to-head victory against Baltimore in Week 14 propelled them into the lead until their loss to Cleveland.

With the division on the line, the Ravens opened at -170 on the moneyline. Despite some injury concerns surrounding Lamar Jackson, bookmakers are comfortable keeping Baltimore as a basket favorite.

“We don’t think there’s a big difference between [backup QB Tyler] “Huntley and this version of Jackson, what appears to be an injured version of Jackson,” John Murray, vice president of Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “The Ravens offense looked as good as ever on Saturday, Huntley knows the offense well and Lamar hasn’t been right all season. I don’t see it making much of a difference.”

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, sees a bit more of a contrast between Jackson and Huntley, saying he expects the matchup to get closer to a pick’em if the former is ruled out.

Ravens-Steelers won’t be the only division title game next week.

Entering Week 11, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were -1200 to win the NFC South, while the Carolina Panthers were +1200 – in Week 18, the two teams will face off for the division. The Bucs opened as 3.5-point home favorites for the showdown with the Panthers, according to DraftKings odds.

This matchup is the culmination of opposing tendencies between the division rivals. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in eight straight games, the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL and the longest in franchise history, according to ESPN Research. Meanwhile, Carolina came back from a long +2500 to win the NFC South in Week 5.

In another tight division race, if the San Francisco 49ers beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football, they will face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18 for the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed.

NFL Odds and Endings

• Despite poor matchups not broadcast on traditional television networks, the NFL led the NBA on Christmas Day in betting interest. At Caesars Sportsbook, NBA marquee games drew only nearly half the amount wagered on the lowest-bet NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders. “The NFL is still king at the end of the day, as the three low-stakes NFL games easily surpassed the level of all the NBA games,” Feazel said.

• Derrick Henry was the most bet on DraftKings player with 2+ touchdowns in both games on Saturday…he scored four in the Ravens’ huge win over the Packers.

• Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been open about his goal heading into Week 17. “I think the biggest thing on the list is to score another touchdown…I think I’m behind since Week 7,” Chase told reporters last week. DraftKings bettors who listened were rewarded. More money was bet on Chase to score a touchdown Sunday than any other player on DraftKings. He caught two touchdowns in the Bengals’ 37-14 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

• With their thrilling win over the Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) have now won six straight games as an underdog, including the playoffs, tied for the longest such streak since 2010, according to ESPN Research.

In-game season win totals in Week 18
[Totals based on BetMGM openers]

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