Internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

HANOI, Vietnam — A year after Vietnam raised its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American “war of aggression” and viewed the United States as a “belligerent” power, according to a report released Tuesday.

More than simply exposing the duality of Hanoi’s approach to the United States, the document confirms a deep-seated fear that outside forces could foment an uprising against communist leaders as part of a so-called “color revolution,” such as the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines.

Other internal documents cited in its analysis by The 88 Project, a human rights organization focused on human rights violations in Vietnam, indicate similar concerns about U.S. motivations in Vietnam.

“There is consensus across government and across ministries,” said Ben Swanton, co-director of Project 88 and author of the report. “This is not just some sort of fringe element or paranoid element within the party or the government.”

The original Vietnamese document titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan” was completed by the Department of Defense in August 2024. It suggests that in seeking “their goal of strengthening deterrence against China, the United States and its allies are prepared to apply unconventional forms of warfare and military intervention and even carry out large-scale invasions against countries and territories that “deviate from its orbit.”

While noting that “at present there is little risk of war with Vietnam,” Vietnamese planners wrote that “because of the bellicose nature of the United States, we must be vigilant to prevent the United States and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.”

Vietnamese military analysts describe what they see as a progression over the course of three US administrations – from Barack Obama, through Donald Trump’s first term, and into the presidency of Joe Biden – with Washington increasingly pursuing military and other relations with Asian countries to “form a front against China”.

During his term, Biden signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Vietnam in 2023, elevating relations between the nations to their highest diplomatic level, on par with Russia and China as “trusted partners with a friendship based on mutual respect.”

In the 2024 military document, however, Vietnamese planners said that while the United States views Vietnam as “an important partner and bond,” it also wants to “spread and impose its values ​​of freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion” to gradually change the country’s socialist government.

“The second U.S. invasion plan provides one of the clearest overviews of Vietnam’s foreign policy to date,” Swanton wrote in his analysis. “This shows that far from considering the United States as a strategic partner, Hanoi views Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its anti-China alliance. »

The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry did not respond to emails seeking comment on the Project 88 report or the highlighted document.

The US State Department declined to comment directly on the “Second US Invasion Plan” but highlighted the new partnership agreement, saying it “promotes the prosperity and security of the United States and Vietnam.”

“A strong, prosperous, independent and resilient Vietnam benefits both of our countries and helps ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains stable, secure, free and open,” the State Department said.

Nguyen Khac Giang of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute research center said the projects highlighted tensions within Vietnam’s political leadership, where the conservative, military faction of the Communist Party has long been preoccupied with external threats to the regime.

“The military has never been more comfortable moving forward with the comprehensive strategic partnership with the United States,” Giang said.

Tensions within the government spilled into the public domain in June 2024, when US-linked Fulbright University was accused of fomenting a “color revolution” by an army television report. The Foreign Ministry defended the university, something U.S. and Vietnamese officials had emphasized when the two countries strengthened relations.

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, said the Vietnamese military still has “a very long memory” of the war with the United States that ended in 1975. While Western diplomats tend to view Hanoi as most concerned about possible Chinese aggression, the document reinforces other policy documents suggesting the leaders’ greatest fear is that of a “color revolution,” he said.

Trust between the United States and Vietnam has been further weakened by cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development by President Donald Trump’s administration, which have disrupted projects such as efforts to clean up tons of soil contaminated with deadly dioxin from the military defoliant Agent Orange and unexploded U.S. munitions and landmines.

“This pervasive insecurity about the color revolutions is very frustrating, because I don’t see why the Communist Party is so insecure,” said Abuza, whose book “The Vietnamese People’s Army: From People’s War to Military Modernization?” was released last year.

“They have so much to be proud of: they have lifted so many people out of poverty, the economy is doing well, they are the darlings of foreign investors.”

While China and Vietnam are at odds over territorial claims in the South China Sea, the documents portray China more as a regional rival than a threat like the United States.

“China does not pose an existential threat to the Communist Party (of Vietnam),” Abuza said. “Indeed, the Chinese know that they can only push the Vietnamese so far, because they fear that the Communist Party will not be able to respond forcefully to China (and will appear) weak and will cause a mass uprising.”

China is Vietnam’s largest bilateral trading partner, while the United States is its largest export market, meaning Hanoi faces a balancing act of maintaining diplomatic and economic ties, while also hedging its bets.

“Even some of the most progressive leaders look at the United States and say, ‘Yes, they love us, they work with us, they are good partners at the moment, but if the opportunity presented itself, if there was a color revolution, the Americans would support it,’” Abuza said.

Under the leadership of Vietnamese leader To Lam, who became general secretary of the Communist Party around the time the document was written, the country has taken steps to strengthen ties with the United States, particularly under Trump, Giang said.

Lam was reappointed as secretary-general last month and is also expected to take over the presidency, which would make him the country’s most powerful figure in decades.

With Lam at the helm, the Trump family business broke ground on a $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf resort and luxury real estate project in northern Hung Yen province. The Vietnamese leader almost immediately accepted Trump’s invitation to join the Peace Council, which Giang said was an unusually quick move given that foreign policy decisions are typically calibrated with close attention to Beijing’s possible reaction.

But Trump’s military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has given Vietnamese conservatives new justification for their concern about closer ties with Washington. Any U.S. military action involving Hanoi’s ally Cuba could disrupt Vietnam’s strategic balance, Giang added.

“Cuba is very sensitive,” he said. “If something happens in Cuba, it will cause shock waves among Vietnamese political elites. Many of them have very strong and intimate ties to Cuba.”

Overall, the first year of Trump’s second term likely left the Vietnamese satisfied with the focus on the Western Hemisphere but wondering about other developments, Abuza said.

“The Vietnamese will be disoriented by the Trump administration, which has downplayed the promotion of human rights and democracy, but is at the same time willing to violate state sovereignty and remove leaders they don’t like,” he said.

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Increase reported from Bangkok.