Iran cannot be bombed into democracy. But it can be helped to find its way there | Simon Tisdall

SShortly after becoming president in 2017, Donald Trump ordered an attack on an underground Islamic State (IS) compound in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province. The strike involved the first-ever combat use of a massive (Moab) GBU-43 “bunker buster” air-burst bomb – the United States’ most powerful conventional weapon. The bombings killed around 90 insurgents but failed to crush IS. It also had no long-term impact on the United States’ defeat of the Taliban.

However, that wasn’t the point. The inexperienced Trump, who had avoided military service, was keen to show that he was in charge, a commander in chief who was not afraid to make tough decisions and send troops into harm’s way. He craved a big bang – a spectacular display of unmatched American power. Like a teenager who unexpectedly gets the keys to the family gun cabinet, he couldn’t resist the temptation to play with all those shiny new weapons from the Pentagon.

Trump’s latest threats to bomb Iran, prompted by recent terrible events in the country, suggest his mindset is unchanged. It is naive to think that he actually cares about the murder and brutalization of unarmed Iranian protesters when, on his orders, gun-wielding federal militias mistreat American citizens in similar ways in Minneapolis and other cities. It is clear that Trump does not care about democracy in the United States, much less in Iran (or newly colonized Venezuela).

Rather, Trump sees an opportunity to impose American hegemony on a historically defiant, poorly run, and energy-rich country that Democrats from Jimmy Carter to Joe Biden have failed to subdue or co-opt. This is your chance to play supreme leader. Trump does not want a deal with the mullahs. He wants capitulation – and regime change on his terms. But he also wants instant gratification and quick results. As his lopsided interference in Ukraine and Israel-Palestine shows, Trump lacks strategic vision, consistency and perseverance.

As the White House considered military options last week, it became clear that strikes against alleged nuclear facilities, missile defenses and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases would not bring the immediate success Trump covets. Gulf leaders have opposed military action, fearing Iranian retaliation and regional chaos. Even Trump’s close ally Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom he recklessly bombed Iran in June, urged caution — perhaps because missile strikes on Israeli cities could harm his re-election chances.

Decapitation of the regime – the tactic followed in Venezuela, whose leader Nicolas Maduro was kidnapped – was also not a convincing alternative. Trump claimed in June that US and Israeli forces could have easily killed Iran’s (real) supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But his assassination would not guarantee change – and might even set it back. Iran has a “large group” of possible successors, including Khamenei’s son, cut from the same hardline theocratic cloth.

For all these reasons, and despite assuring Iranian protesters that “help is on the way,” “bomber” Trump appears to have backed down – for now.

The murderous, incompetent and corrupt religious regime installed after the 1979 revolution has undoubtedly lost all legitimacy and must be replaced, as we have argued previously. Its crimes are legion, its failures endemic. They didn’t start with this month’s brutal crackdown. And they won’t stop there, unless there is radical change. But externally imposed regime change is not the way to achieve this, nor to guarantee the West’s long-term goal: a stable, peaceful, prosperous and threat-free Iran.

Military intervention would only worsen the situation of its long-suffering people. The focus should instead be on ensuring that the country’s obscurantist, “divinely ordained” system of government – ​​a religious relic designed to suit the revolution’s chief zealot, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini – is abandoned by peaceful means. The regime’s centers of power, such as the Guardian Council, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, internal security agencies, and corrupt state monopolies, must also be dissolved.

Polls suggest that a majority of Iranians would welcome a secular constitution and free, fair and fully democratic elections. The anachronistic position of supreme leader should be abolished. Universal human rights, particularly women’s rights, must be enshrined in law. And those responsible for past and present crimes must be brought to justice, in Iran or through the United Nations and international courts. In short, theocracy must be demolished.

How can we achieve this without even more violence? Western countries could increase direct economic and financial pressure on the regime and its leaders through sanctions, tariffs, bans and boycotts. Diplomatic contacts should be suspended and Tehran’s embassies, like that of Great Britain, closed for an indefinite period. All discussions on sanctions relief and nuclear issues that normalize this rogue regime should be frozen.

If political will exists, cyber and hybrid operations aimed at disabling missile defenses, crippling security force communications, and disrupting regime revenues could be launched. This has already been done. “Ghost” tankers carrying Iranian oil exports could be seized. More coercive pressure could be brought to bear on China, Russia and North Korea to reduce trade and aid.

Regardless, Britain and its allies must do more to support Iran’s divided opposition and identify future leaders. Western tech companies could offer ordinary people ways to get around internet and information blackouts. The use of soft power tools, such as Persian-language broadcasts, should be expanded rather than eliminated short-sightedly. All possible means must be employed to help strengthen Iranian civil society, independent media and the rule of law.

Trump promised Iranians last week that their lives would change. This was not her promise to make and it cannot be kept at gunpoint. The impetus for fundamental reform must ultimately come from within. But the US president, who claims to be guided by morality, now has a clear moral obligation to break his habit of opportunistic, short-term demagoguery and back his words with sustainable, practical and constructive nonviolent aid.

Dropping big bombs on people is easy. Forging a secure and peaceful future for the betrayed and orphaned children of Iran’s failed revolution is much more difficult.