Iran rebuilding after U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities, report says : NPR

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

We have news this morning on the US strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. President Trump announced what he said was the outcome in June.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and utterly destroyed. Iran, the tyrant of the Middle East, must now make peace.

INSKEEP: That was then. Now some time has passed. Satellite images and other information give the public a better idea of ​​the status of Iran’s nuclear program. Joseph Rodgers co-wrote an analysis for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which is an independent think tank here in Washington. Mr. Rodgers, hello.

JOSEPH RODGERS: Hello.

INSKEEP: What word would you use to describe the state of Iran’s nuclear capabilities?

RODGERS: So for me, the bottom line is that Iran’s nuclear program appears to be in limbo without clear direction from leadership. We are seeing some activity building new nuclear facilities near the facilities destroyed by the United States. And simultaneously, it appears that the three facilities that the United States struck have not been subject to any attempt at rehabilitation.

INSKEEP: That seems important to me. You say that for all practical purposes, perhaps the Fordo facilities were completely destroyed. They didn’t try to turn it back on. But you’re telling me there’s activity elsewhere?

RODGERS: Yes, indeed. So about a mile south of the Natanz enrichment facility, there’s a site called Pickaxe Mountain that’s been under construction since about 2020. But since June, construction has really been ramping up. We’re seeing a lot more mining and drilling on the mountain, and we’re also seeing a huge security perimeter being built around the site.

INSKEEP: Was this already known as a nuclear site?

RODGERS: That’s right. Thus, Pickaxe Mountain was declared in 2020 as a site for the construction of centrifuges necessary for uranium enrichment. However, Iran continued to deny the IAEA – the International Atomic Energy Agency – access to this site, which was a precondition for the Iran nuclear deal.

INSKEEP: So we don’t know exactly what was being done there, and we don’t know exactly what was being done there. But you’re telling me that the satellite images show that something is being done.

RODGERS: That’s right. And I think, you know, there are a few possible explanations for what’s happening at Pickaxe Mountain. The first is that the Iranians are doing exactly what they said: they are preparing a centrifuge assembly facility. A second explanation is that activity inside Pickaxe Mountain was expanded to include some of the facilities and some sort of research and metallurgy that the United States destroyed at Isfahan. And a third explanation, which is the worst possible outcome, is that it could be a future uranium enrichment site that Iran is building undeclared.

INSKEEP: I guess we should note that when you use the word centrifuge, you’re talking about machines that can be used to enrich uranium and bring it closer to weapons grade.

RODGERS: That’s right.

INSKEEP: Did the just-expired nuclear deal include additional inspections for Iran?

RODGERS: Yes. The Iran nuclear deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – included some pretty serious additional obligations for Iran under a sort of IAEA oversight. So that included access to facilities that were going to build centrifuges, like what they said at Pickaxe Mountain, although Iran did not let the IAEA into those facilities.

INSKEEP: How concerned are you about this?

RODGERS: I think it’s definitely something we should watch very closely. You know, Iran really needs to build a new enrichment facility if it’s going to go out and build a bomb.

INSKEEP: Do they still have the expertise to do this, given that many of their scientists have been targeted? And I imagine people were killed in those strikes.

RODGERS: That’s a really important part of the picture. In the aftermath of the strikes, Israeli Ambassador Zarka claimed that Israel had assassinated approximately 14 of the most prominent nuclear scientists in Iran’s nuclear program. And rebuilding buildings is difficult. It is equally difficult to rebuild the social capital required for this level of in-depth expertise.

INSKEEP: What’s your idea about who stays and whether they can work together?

RODGERS: I think it’s clear from the precision of the U.S. and Israeli strikes that Mossad and U.S. intelligence agencies have deeply penetrated the Iranian program and selectively targeted scientists. Today, in the wake of the strikes, Iran has truly cracked down. They have arrested over 700 people and accused them of working with Mossad in some capacity, and so there is a lot of fear and speculation within the program about who is working for foreign intelligence services. This has serious implications for the effectiveness of any future program. If everyone looks around and is deeply skeptical, then it’s really hard to sit down and get to work.

INSKEEP: Joseph Rodgers of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thanks for the update.

RODGERS: Great. THANKS.

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