Iran’s regime has survived war, sanctions, and uprising. Environmental crises may bring it down.
The anti-government protests ravaging Iran, from big cities to rural villages, are fueled by anger over economic collapse and political repression. But behind the headlines of currency devaluations and street clashes lies a deeper and more permanent driver of dissent: ecological calamity.
Decades of ignoring scientists, persecuting activists and greenlighting corrupt development projects have triggered a water crisis so severe that President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in November that Tehran residents may eventually have to evacuate the capital, which is sinking as dry aquifers give way.
The devastation extends well beyond Tehran. Lake Urmia, once one of the world’s largest salt lakes, has shrunk to less than 10 percent of its volume, while the iconic Zayandeh River has remained dry for years. Wildfires have ravaged the parched forests of Hyrcania, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. In the oil-rich Khuzestan province, home to Iran’s Arab minority, state-led water diversion has devastated the local economy and stoked ethnic grievances.
Iranians and many experts blame the government, one of the most repressive regimes in the world.
Environmental issues are linked “to all the other grievances of activists, citizens and protesters regarding economic and political issues,” said Eric Lob, a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Program and associate professor at Florida International University. “Everything is interconnected.”
The human cost is enormous. Crumbling infrastructure, poorly designed irrigation systems and depleted aquifers left farmers unable to plant crops and cities were forced to ration their supplies. Tens of thousands of people, including children, die prematurely each year from severe air and water pollution. Water shortages and power outages have closed businesses and left ordinary Iranians “worried about whether they will have enough water to drink, wash and clean,” Lob said.
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Water stress has also become a source of political conflict and a tool of political control, he said. Ethnic minority regions on Iran’s periphery have seen their water supplies diverted to central provinces dominated by the Persian majority, creating environmental “winners and losers” and increased resentment.
In Khuzestan, for example, national government policies have diverted water from the Karun River to the central plateau provinces, reinforcing the impression that Tehran prioritizes agriculture and politically linked industrial interests over local needs.
Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, highlighted recent protests over access to water in Sistan-Baluchistan province, where protesters marched in 2023 with signs reading “Sistan thirsts for water, Sistan thirsts for attention.”
“These protests are not separate from the current uprising,” Roman said of past water protests. “These are trailblazers. Economic and environmental grievances are inseparable when your tap runs dry and your crops die.”
Student groups have also identified ecological emergencies in Iran as the root of the unrest.
“Today, the crises have accumulated: poverty, inequality, class oppression, gender oppression, pressure on nations, water and environmental crises. All are direct products of a corrupt and worn-out system,” student activists said in a December statement.
The current protests, which erupted in late December, are the largest since 2022-2023. The government responded with a communications blackout, cutting off internet access across the country, and violent crackdowns. Human rights organizations estimate that thousands of people have been killed and even more arrested. Iran has a history of executing protesters, often by public hanging.
Lob drew a direct link between today’s uprising and the regime’s historic environmental failures.
Since the 1979 revolution, he explained, the government has used rural development projects to increase political legitimacy and popular support – a process that gave rise to a “water mafia” within the military establishment and the construction of hundreds of dams across the country.
“Organizations close to the government and the military were able to secure contracts for these projects,” Lob said. “The goal was the pursuit of power and profit rather than environmental protection and sustainability. »
