Trump’s approval ratings just hit a new low. A Latino voter shift could reshape the midterms

WASHINGTON- As the war in Iran enters its fifth week, support for President Trump is at its lowest level ever, with a growing number of recent polls showing him losing ground to the major voting blocs that contributed to his 2024 victory.

Although public discontent is evident among many groups surveyed, the decline in support for the president has been more pronounced among Latino voters.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released March 24 found that 36 percent of voters approve of the president’s job performance, the lowest rate ever recorded during his second term. The poll found 62% disapproved.

Other polls, such as that of AP-NORC, put this figure at 38%.

All told, the president is underwater on almost every public policy issue. With the exception of crime, which is around 47% approval, he has not seen any gains in any of the categories surveyed, according to experts.

On immigration, the president’s signature issue, approval fell from about 45% at the end of 2025 to 39% in February, according to Reuters.

About one in four respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, Reuters found, as domestic gas prices jumped more than a dollar a gallon after the fighting began last month. The share of Republicans who disapprove of his handling of cost-of-living issues increased 7 points in one week to 34%.

The move comes amid growing economic malaise and amplified backlash following the war in Iran. About one in three Americans approve of the military operation, according to a Reuters survey.

And a growing divide among most prominent conservatives has emerged over U.S. involvement in the Middle East.

The clashes took place in public and highlight tensions within the Republican Party, with conservative commentators such as Megyn Kelly openly questioning whether the war is in America’s best interests.

“This is not a foreign policy that makes sense and this is not what Trump ran on. It is, in many ways, a betrayal of his campaign promises and what he sold himself and his MAGA base,” Kelly said earlier this month.

Other conservative pundits, including Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes, also oppose it.

But the real damage is where Trump cannot afford to lose: his base.

Trump began his second term buoyed by historic gains among Latino voters. Exit polls indicated he improved his standing with them by more than 20 percentage points in 2024 compared to his 2016 victory, fueling widespread narratives that demographics were undergoing a lasting shift toward the Republicans. In total, 48% of Latinos supported him in the last elections.

Since then, his approval among Latino voters has dropped to 22%, according to a March 2026 analysis by The Economist.

In a bipartisan UnidosUS poll released in November, 14% of Latino voters said their lives had improved after Trump took office, while 39% said their lives had gotten worse.

The president’s relationship with Latinos reflects deep dissatisfaction with economic conditions, according to Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican political consultant from California and an expert on Latino voting trends.

“A lot of it depends on the economy and affordability,” he said. “Latino voters moved away from Biden-Harris for exactly the same reasons they are currently moving away from Donald Trump.”

Research and polling suggests that Latino voters prioritize cost-of-living issues — such as housing, wages and inflation — over immigration, a topic often highlighted in national messaging.

“It’s not even close,” Madrid said. “Immigration isn’t even one of the top five issues for Latino voters.”

Madrid suggested that the demographic rally is less a “return” than a reflection of a rapidly changing electorate.

“Latinos have become the only true deciding vote in America,” he said. “And they reject whatever party is in power.”

These volatile double-digit vote shifts stand in direct contrast to more stable voting patterns among other major demographic groups, including both black and white electorates, where changes from one cycle to the next tend to amount to only a few points.

The reason: dramatic fluctuations in participation. Who decides whether to show up or stay home on Election Day tends to change from year to year. This situation is compounded by the fact that there are far more new Latino voters than any other category.

Polls this month suggest Trump is also losing ground among young voters, another group that contributed to his 2024 gains.

More than half of men under 30 supported Trump in this election, helping him flip several swing states.

In just one year, this demographic has fallen by 20 points.

“Trump won in 2024 because of men. They’re abandoning him right now,” Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data analyst, said Tuesday.

These swings could have far-reaching implications for November’s midterm elections, particularly in competitive congressional districts where small swings could determine control of the House.

Republicans have warned that if they lose their narrow majority in Congress, Trump risks facing a third impeachment.

UCLA political scientist Matt Barreto said the Republican shift was already visible in real-world election results, not just polls.

“We’ve already seen in the congressional and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey very significant shifts in the Latino vote, 25 points in favor of the Democratic Party,” Barreto said. He added that similar trends have emerged in places like Miami and Texas, where Democratic candidates have outperformed expectations with strong Latino support.

Latino Democrats who did not participate in the 2024 elections are returning among voters, while some Latino Republicans are opting out, he said.

This dynamic could prove decisive in November. There are more than 40 congressional districts where the number of registered Latino voters exceeds the margin of victory in 2024, Barreto said. Many of them are closely divided between parties.

“At the district level, the Latino vote is going to have a huge impact,” he said.