Japan may be about to make history with its next prime minister

Japan could end up with its first Prime Minister’s first wife or its youngest leader for more than a century after an election of management of the party on Saturday.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) votes for a new party leader after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced last month that he resigned.

The winner is likely to become the new Prime Minister of Japan, a key American ally and the fourth world economy, when the Parliament votes in mid -October – although it is not guaranteed since the Coalition led by the LDP has lost its majority in the two houses in the past year.

Conservative nationalist Sanae Takaichi, 64, and Shinjiro Koizumi, more moderate, 44, are the first among the five candidates. Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, who is currently the best spokesperson for the Japanese government, has also increased in opinion polls and could find himself in the lead.

The new LDP chief will be selected by 295 legislators and nearly a million members of the basic party, who will be represented by 295 other votes. The first two candidates are likely to enter a runoff.

“There is a lot of uncertainty, but at the moment, the polls suggest that Koizumi is in pole position,” said Jeff Kingston, professor of Asian studies and history at the Japanese campus of Temple University.

The LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted since the end of the Second World War, made “intruders”, said Kingston, after the electoral losses stimulated by a scandal of party corruption as well as public dissatisfaction with regard to the increase in the cost of living.

Those who think that the party has not done enough to eliminate corruption and needs a “reset” is looking for a “fresh face” and to “give the stick to a younger and more charismatic leader” like Koizumi, said Kingston.

Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, is a former Minister of the Environment, but recently acquired importance as Minister of Agriculture when he was able to slow down Rice Rice prices, basic Japanese cuisine.

He would be the youngest leader in Japan since Hirobumi Ito, who had only a few months less than Koizumi when he became the country’s first Prime Minister in 1885.

Others prefer Takaichi because she was an ally of former murdered Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the oldest chief in Japan, whose LDP wing was tarnished by corruption scandals.

“Their opinion is that the LDP must return to its DNA to be the right -wing conservative party, and that Takaichi is best positioned to return to the glory of Abe,” Kingston said.

Takaichi, who has a passionate conservative base among members of the basic party, says that one of his models is the former British leader Margaret Thatcher.

“She projects the strength of the way Margaret Thatcher has projected strength, and she wants to be this kind of iron iron from Japan,” said Jeffrey Hall, a special speaker in Japanese studies at the University of Kanda International Studies.

But some LDP legislators consider Takaichi too much to the right, expressing his concern that his nationalist historical opinions could undermine relations with China, the largest trading partner in Japan.

Moderate forces could unite with another candidate to prevent Takaichi from winning, as they did during the leadership race last year when she lost against Ishiba.

A person who benefits from this scenario is Hayashi, who like Koizumi is educated by Ivy League. Having served in almost all the big articles of the cabinet, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hayashi “really means experience and stability,” said Hall.

All the candidates spoke hard on immigration, an increasingly sensitive question in Japan, where tourists are in record numbers and residents born abroad constitute a growing proportion of the population while the government is struggling with the shortages of labor.

But Takaichi took the strongest positions, denouncing the rudeness of foreign tourists and accusing them of having abused the famous deer of Nara.

“It really uses online conservatives who have very strong anti-foreign feelings,” said Hall.

Koizumi, Takaichi and Hayashi all have about the same policy towards the United States, “who keeps the status quo,” he said.

Currently, the American relationship “is a huge headache for Japan”, and there are signs that the trade agreement concluded with President Donald Trump in July, “said Kingston.

The impact of Trump’s prices was particularly felt by the crucial automotive industry in Japan, including popular brands in the United States like Nissan, Honda and Toyota.

Last month, the American price on cars imported from Japan was reduced to 15%, compared to 27.5%, the same rate that the United States imposes on almost all Japanese products under the agreement, which has not yet been put in writing. But this is still considerably higher than the previous 2.5%.

The prices have been reduced in part because Japan has promised $ 550 billion in American investment, although there are disagreements between Washington and Tokyo as to the form of this investment and the way each country will benefit from it.

A major challenge for the next Japan leader will be the implementation of the trade agreement “in a way that Trump will be satisfied,” said Hall.

“The one who becomes Prime Minister will pursue Japan’s foreign policy to flatter Trump and be as friendly as possible towards Trump,” he said, “and not trying to have a situation where they will have an open disagreement that could make Trump back on Japan.”