Japan’s first female prime minister stakes her future on snap elections : NPR

Japanese Prime Minister and Chairwoman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Sanae Takaichi (R), greets people as she arrives to deliver a campaign speech ahead of the House of Representatives elections, at Rekisen Park in Tokyo on February 7, 2026.

Philippe Fong/AFP via Getty Images

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Philippe Fong/AFP via Getty Images

TOKYO – Polls show Japan’s first female prime minister and her coalition are on track to win a decisive victory in Sunday’s snap election.

Sanae Takaichi received an extra boost in the form of an endorsement from President Trump, in what appears to be the first time a U.S. president has supported a Japanese leader in an election. “Although Trump is often an exception,” notes an article from the Kyodo news agency, “it is very rare for the leader of any country to support a specific political figure before a national election in a foreign country.”

Despite solid approval ratings, generally in the 60% range, Takaichi, whom Trump has praised as “strong, powerful and wise,” has a fragile new coalition with a slim majority in the lower house of parliament and a minority in the upper house.

Polls predict she could win a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, which could allow her to pursue a conservative agenda, with policies that, by her own admission, could prove highly controversial.

“I also want to resolutely address challenges that include bold policies and reforms that could divide public opinion,” Takaichi said last month, as she tried to convince the public why elections were needed just four months into her term.

Referendum on Takaichi

Takaichi is exploiting her popularity to increase her political power, turning the election into a sort of referendum on her and her policies, says Koichi Nakano, a political scientist at Sophia University in Tokyo.

“This election really feels like a presidential election,” Nakano says. Takaichi’s message seems to be: “‘Give me power,’ without really specifying what she’s going to do.”

But Takaichi has already made many of his priorities clear. She is a protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and shares his ambition to shake off the post-war stigma and restrictions imposed on the Japanese military and make it a “normal” country.

Since its establishment in 1955, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has sought to revise the country’s post-war constitution, particularly its Article 9, in which Japan renounces the right to wage war as a means of resolving international disputes.

At a recent campaign rally for Prime Minister Takaichi, Koichi Sato, 50, who came with his family, said he was worried about global instability and believed Takaichi could do something about it.

“In 10 or 20 years, our children will still have a future ahead of them, which is why I want Japan to be a place where they can live and feel safe.”

Another supporter, Manami Itoga, says she didn’t pay much attention to politics before Takaichi became prime minister.

Just weeks after taking office, Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan sparked a diplomatic row with China, but Itoga says she is on the same page as Takaichi.

“I fear that Japan will somehow be taken over by the Chinese,” she says, “because the number of Chinese [in Japan] increases rapidly. Things like this circulate on Instagram and other social networks, don’t they? »

Japanese politics shifts to the right

Takaichi is trying to win back voters who have abandoned the PLD to turn to right-wing parties, notably the populist Sanseito party. The party’s “Japan First” agenda includes restricting immigration, opposing same-sex marriage and opposing mandatory vaccinations.

Last year, the LDP split from its coalition partner of 26 years, the Komeito party, affiliated with the secular Buddhist organization Sokka Gakkai. To make up for lost parliamentary seats, he formed a new coalition with the conservative opposition party, the Japan Innovation Party.

Takaichi’s ties to smaller right-wing parties “are in some ways reminiscent of Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party,” says Koichi Nakano of Sophia University. For example, he states that “Takaichi is trying to leave his personal mark on the LDP and become a new rallying point for right-wing forces.”

Masahiko Hisae, political editor at Kyodo News Agency, says concern over perceived security threats, including from China, North Korea and Russia, and growing income disparities are moving Japan’s politics in the same direction as other countries.

“These factors have caused the entire political spectrum, including the LDP and most Japanese, to shift slightly from the center to the right.”

Takaichi’s ability to achieve his ambitious goals may depend in part on the staying power of his popularity, and Masahiko Hisae says public opinion of him may prove fickle. His party has not emerged from the shadow of corruption scandals and ties between its politicians and the Unification Church.

She was also criticized by liberal politicians over her comments on Taiwan, which said a naval blockade of Taiwan could justify Japanese military intervention. China responded with a global campaign of criticism and a series of economic countermeasures, from stopping Japanese imports of seafood and exports of materials with military applications, to discouraging tourism and canceling cultural performances.

“As long as the Takaichi administration persists, restoring Japan-China relations to their original state will be a very difficult problem,” Hisae says, “and we can only wait for time to pass.”

For now, Beijing does not appear interested in backing down or negotiating with Takaichi.

Chie Kobayashi contributed to this report in Tokyo.