Jayson Tatum’s return to the Celtics: Answering five biggest questions

He’s back! Six-time All-Star Jayson Tatum is expected to make his season debut Friday against the Dallas Mavericks, just 10 months after tearing his right Achilles tendon, sources told ESPN’s Shams Charania.

Tatum, who was injured late in Game 4 of the Boston Celtics’ second-round playoff series against the New York Knicks, will join a Celtics team that has far exceeded preseason expectations and is No. 2 in a wide-open Eastern Conference with weeks remaining in the regular season.

Why is Tatum coming back now? What impact does his return have on the title race? How could this change the Celtics offseason?

Our NBA insiders answer the five biggest questions surrounding the unlikely return of the 2024 NBA champion.

Why is Tatum returning now and what can the Celtics expect?

He comes back because his goal has always been to be able to play meaningful basketball this season.

That’s why Tatum had surgery the morning after tearing his Achilles tendon at Madison Square Garden, before swelling set in that would have cost him another month.

It’s something he learned while studying the experience of his idol, Kobe Bryant, who detailed his recovery from an Achilles tendon injury in a documentary.

For several months, Tatum wasn’t sure he would be ready this season. He still had boxes to check, the most important being mental, that of trusting his body again. But by attacking his rehab the way he did, Tatum gave himself that chance to come back and contribute to the Celtics’ playoff run. — Ramona Shelburne

How should we expect the Celtics to change on the court with Tatum returning?

Tatum has led the Celtics in shot attempts in each of the last six seasons; The last Celtics player to shoot the ball more frequently than Tatum was Kyrie Irving in 2018-19. So with such an important player returning to Boston’s rotation, one of the biggest questions is how Jaylen Brown will adapt, as he has entered the fringes of the MVP conversation by taking on much greater responsibility in Tatum’s absence.

Last season, Brown ranked 23rd among qualified players in usage rate (28.9%), but in 2025-26 he moved to second in the league (36.5%), behind Luka Doncic. It’s possible there will be some initial conflict as the two stars navigate their new balance, with Brown ascending and Tatum returning from a debilitating injury.

Adding such a dynamic offensive force, however, should benefit Brown and his teammates, even if they sacrifice volume for Tatum; There’s still room to grow, even though the Celtics rank second on offense. Among 123 players with at least 500 shot attempts this season, according to GeniusIQ, Payton Pritchard ranks 58th in shot quality, Derrick White ranks 94th and Brown 101st. Last season, on the other hand, all three players looked easier when playing alongside Tatum. — Zach Kram

How different are the Celtics from last season’s team?

Dramatically. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday were traded, and Luke Kornet and Al Horford left in free agency, removing four key pieces from Boston’s title chase in 2024. And of course, the Celtics have been without Tatum since he was injured last May.

But Boston has far exceeded all expectations this season – at least all external expectations – thanks to the combination of impressive play from its veterans and strong growth from its young players.

Neemias Queta has become a solid starting center on one of the league’s best contracts, and the young trio of Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and rookie Hugo Gonzalez has given coach Joe Mazzulla consistent energy on the wings in Tatum’s absence.

Meanwhile, Tatum returns to a core of Brown, whose play has earned him a spot in the thick of the MVP race; Derrick White, who is posting career highs in points, assists, steals and blocks per game; and Payton Pritchard, who, in more than 32 minutes per game, is having the best season of his career, averaging nearly 17 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists. – Tim Bontemps

How could his return impact the Eastern Conference playoff race?

Our Basketball Power Index (BPI) observed Tatum’s promised return date of April 1 (then March 15, and now March 6), so its predictions had already factored in his return. That’s why their chances stand at 45% for one of the top two seeds in the East, the clear favorite to get that spot.

So in terms of prediction, Tatum’s return doesn’t really affect anything. It was already integrated. If that wasn’t factored in, BPI would only have the Celtics as having about a 35% chance of getting that top spot. The Knicks and the Cavs would therefore have had an easier journey.

In reality, the shock that Tatum brings to the race now is nowhere near the shock that the entire Celtics team has brought to the Eastern Conference for the season thus far.

Remember, at the start of the year, the C’s had a 50% chance of making the playoffs. The players who got them this far are still there; they just need to get a bunch of reps in with Tatum before the playoffs start. — Dean Olivier

How does his return impact the Celtics’ offseason approach?

Don’t expect a repeat of last summer’s performance, when Boston cut salaries significantly.

The departures of Porzingis, Holiday, Horford and Kornet not only allowed the Celtics to reduce their payroll from a projected $540 million to $187 million, but also balanced their finances in the coming years.

The trade of Anfernee Simons for Nikola Vucevic, along with three minor trades at the February deadline, pushed Boston under the luxury tax for the first time since 2021-22.

With 11 players under contract this offseason, including Tatum, Brown and White, Boston is $21 million under the luxury tax and comfortably below both aprons. The Celtics also have their own first-round pick and a second-round pick from Milwaukee in June’s draft.

The big decision will come to the center.

Vucevic is an unrestricted free agent and Queta has a $2.7 million team option. Boston could exercise Queta’s option and re-sign Vucevic while still being subject to the luxury tax — and both aprons. The Celtics would then be allowed to give Queta an extension of up to four years and $93 million. The first extension season would begin in 2027-28. — Bobby Marques