The WNBA MVP has a clear favorite, according to stats and odds
Although it is very early to make radical decisions concerning the MVP candidates of the WNBA, there are a few players who separated into the greater conversations of the League. Napheesa Collier, Allisha Gray and Caitlin Clark seem to be the names that float most frequently among fans and the media as a current superior choice, which is supported by the three in the first six in Paris Cotes.
According to Fanduel, necklace (-340) is the current favorite, while Clark (+280) has the second best rating, followed by Breanna Stewart de la Liberty (+5000) and equality between Gray, Mercury Star Alyssa Thomas and Reigning Winner A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces (+7500).
There are so many things that voters can think when choosing MVP. Statistics are a tool to clarify decisions, but they should not be the only factor that determines the awards. Often, some of these deep diving statistics can be used as equality break if an voter has trouble choosing between two or three candidates.
As an exercise, let’s take a look at the statistics of necklace, Clark and Gray side by side (all figures via its hoop statistics):
Statistics of MVP candidates
| Statistics | Napheesa Collier | Caitlin Clark | Allisha Gray |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statistics | Napheesa Collier | Caitlin Clark | Allisha Gray |
| Team record | 11-1 | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Played Games | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 19.9 | 20.4 |
| Rebounds per game | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Help per match | 3.6 | 8.7 | 4.5 |
| Field Fays% | 52.40% | 41.70% | 50.60% |
| Goals on the field attempted by match | 17.2 | 15.4 | 13 |
| Goals on the field performed by match | 9 | 6.4 | 6.6 |
| Three -point | 42.10% | 35.50% | 42.30% |
| Three points attempted by match | 3.5 | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| Three points made per game | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Free throws% | 93.10% | 79.40% | 81.40% |
| Fly per game | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Blocks per game | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Reversals by play | 2.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 |
| Use rate% | 29.80% | 28.80% | 21.90% |
| Offensive note | 121.6 | 101.3 | 133.6 |
| Defensive rating | 90.8 | 94.3 | 97.4 |
| Win actions | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
A few things come out of this painting. Minnesota lynx has the best record not only among these three players, but throughout the league, which is something that has a lot of weight in the MVP conversation. Unless the lynx knows a difficult period, they will probably remain in the top 2 of the League classification all year round, giving necklace an advantage over its fever and dream counterparts.
Going down to the real statistics of the players, Collar also leads to the two points per game (24.4) and rebounds per game (8.5) – which makes sense, given its size and its position as an attacker. She has a complete 4 points per game ahead of Gray and 4.5 in front of Clark. Clark takes first place for assists, which is also logical because of its elite play capacity and position as the main leader of his team.
Necklace again takes first place in the three categories of goals in the field – attempted, manufactured and percentage – showing its ability to mark effectively. The percentage of goals on the Gray field is not too far from that of necklace, but Clark takes place because of its high volume shooting style. It’s not a bad thing, it’s just the way Clark plays. This is why she has both the highest attempt at three points and made figures – take more blows, make more shots. Necklace then has the highest free throwing of free throws by a wide margin. It is gray, however, which pulls at a distance with the most precision, barely a necklace (42.3% compared to the 42.1% necklace).
Calculating the real percentage of shooting of each player, who comes from the division of his points by attempted rating by 2, Gray has the upper hand. Real shot is used as a way to see a player’s shooting statistics when you explain the added value of three -point shots. Gray leads this statistic here with 65% real shots over the season, necklace is 63% and Clark has a real percentage of shooting of 56.5% so far.
With regard to statistics, thefts and blocks traditionally defensive per game, necklace comes out again. The blocks are not surprising, since it has the advantage of size on Gray and Clark, but its ability to obtain 1.8 interceptions per game is impressive. Gray commits the least reversals per game of the three, only giving the balloon 1.5 times per game compared to Collier’s 2.3 and Clark’s 5.3 (something in which she leads the League).
From there, we dive into the most unique statistical categories of its statistics. The use rate measures the percentage of games while a player is on the ground he uses to shoot, reach the line or commit a turnover, a category that collar leads with a score of 29.8%. The offensive and defensive notes are commonly used statistics in basketball to measure the points scored and authorized for 100 possessions when an individual player is on the ground for his team. Allisha Gray leads in an offensive note with 133.6, which is also in the 100th centile on the league scale. Necklace, on the other hand, leads in a defensive note, granting only 90.8 points per 100 possessions, in the 97th centile on a league scale.
Interestingly, his hoop statistics classify the best players of any WNBA season by victory shares in any other category. They define this statistic as “an advanced statistic which approaches the total number of victories that a player produced for his team thanks to their game on the offensive and defensive side of the field.” Collier and Gray direct the whole WNBA in this category with a 2.9 victories sharing score, while Clark has a score of 0.9. This is more logical since Collier and Gray each played more than 10 games, while Clark has not even reached 10 yet because of his stay with his previous injury.
Again, these statistics are not the whole image with regard to MVP voting, and it is still early enough for them to change. Necklace currently leads in 11 categories, and the links in 1, Gray leads in 4 and the links in 1, and Clark leads in 3 categories. The conversations around MVP in the WNBA at the moment are looking towards necklace, and statistically, she directs the pack. It will be interesting to see how these figures change at a later time from the WNBA season, but if the vote occurred today (and I had a vote, which I do not do), my choice MVP would be Napheesa Collier.
