Joe Lunardi’s men’s Bracketology March Madness watch guide

By the time Selection Sunday rolls around, there will have been a lot of movement in the projected field of 68 for the 2026 NCAA men’s tournament, in terms of the teams participating in it, as well as those looking to participate.

While our Tuesday and Friday Bracketology updates allow us to look at the March Madness race holistically twice a week, daily results matter and can affect teams whether they play or not.

Men’s bracketologist Joe Lunardi follows all the relevant matches every day – so why shouldn’t you?

Here, we provide a look at the headlines and upcoming matchups that inform Joey Brackets’ calculations on any given day, as he projects which teams could see their names called on Selection Sunday (March 15).

A few administrative points: this page will be updated daily from Monday to Saturday, with a few exceptions. Games are listed in order of importance for bracket movement. A team’s projection that day is shown in parentheses unless otherwise noted.

Sheet music available here. All times Eastern

Projected field of 68 |
NCAA Tournament Details |
Bubble Watch |
Champions Week Schedule

Sunday March 1st

SECURITIES

• Race #1 is no longer really a race: Duke erased any hopes of Michigan returning to No. 1 overall by throttling Virginia on Saturday.

• How some teams’ results benefited others on the front lines: With Houston’s dominant win over Colorado on Saturday, coupled with Illinois’ loss to Michigan on Friday, the Cougars replace the Illini on the second line. And Gonzaga’s loss to Saint Mary’s vaulted Michigan State to the top seed.

• The 1-seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona and UConn remain as is.

• The new 2 seeds: Florida, Iowa State, Houston, Purdue.

• The new 3 seeds: Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan State.

• The new 4 seeds: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Alabama, Virginia.

• The last spot in general: Saturday’s biggest bubble result came from the Mountain West, as New Mexico beat San Diego State to grab the last overall spot.

• Elsewhere around the bubble: In addition to wins and losses in the league, UCLA falls into the “first four byes”. TCU goes from “Last Four In” to “Last Four Byes.” VCU moves to the “First Four Out” at the expense of USC.