Joe Lunardi’s ultimate guide to men’s March Madness 2026
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Joe Lunardi
Multiple Authors
Our men’s NCAA tournament preview has evolved since the first was created 30-odd years ago.
It’s how Bracketology began, when a handful of hoop nerds gathered during “Selection Weekend” to put together an 80-page postseason “Blue Ribbon” guide. It was the ultimate conclusion to spending the college basketball season poring over résumés, watching games and evaluating strengths, weaknesses and possibilities. All on the crew’s own time.
The guide has shrunk a tad in length and is no longer in print, but it still fulfills the same role: outlining the crucial information you need to fill out brackets.
We’ve made the case for exactly how each team will advance — and how they won’t. Bracketologist in Chief Joe Lunardi also ran the numbers one last time to forecast where each will actually finish in the final field of 68.
The results might or might not surprise you — and could help you fill out those brackets.
Jump to region:
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EAST
0:30
Duke’s NCAA tournament preview
Joe Lunardi breaks down the Duke Blue Devils’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Why they will advance
Duke’s conveyor belt of ready-made freshman stars has delivered again with Cameron Boozer, Durham’s latest hoops prodigy. He is atop every scouting report and still averages nearly 23 points per contest. His presence, plus a No. 1 seed, a talent-laden roster and Jon Scheyer’s coaching acumen, are reasons to believe Duke could capture its first national championship since 2015.
Why they won’t advance
Duke owns wins over fellow title contenders Michigan and Florida and is one of the cut-down-the-nets favorites. But the last teams standing in the Big Dance are often experienced squads, and Scheyer has a roster dominated by freshmen and sophomores. Another question mark is the health of starters Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster, who are both contending with foot injuries.
Did you know?
Duke is the only team ranked in the top four nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, according to KenPom. Airtight D has been a key to success under Scheyer. In fact, Duke has boasted a top-20 defense in all four of Scheyer’s seasons: 16th in 2022-23; 16th in 2023-24; fifth in 2024-25; now first this season. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 1
Résumé rating: 2
NCAA seed list: 1
Joey Brackets says …
Duke has all the ingredients of a national champion: a superstar with an all-around game (Boozer), a roster with multiple likely 2026 NBA first-round draft picks (Boozer, Ngongba, Isaiah Evans) and an efficient offense and elite defense, and it is peaking at the right time. If it feels like another Final Four trip — at least — for Duke, it will be. Let’s call the Blue Devils national runner-up to Arizona.
Final field rank: 2
Why they will advance
The Huskies run Danny Hurley’s offense like a well-oiled machine, yet they truly win games by physically dominating opponents on the glass and on defense. UConn plays aggressive man-to-man defense, funneling drivers to Tarris Reed Jr. protecting the rim, with every other player ready and able to rebound and kick-start an offensive scoring opportunity.
Why they won’t advance
UConn brings pressure defensively yet has struggled to handle it offensively at times. The Huskies are middle of the pack in turnover rate, an outlier for an elite offense. In losses to St. John’s and Marquette, they exceeded 15 turnovers and failed to find an offensive rhythm.
Did you know?
Alex Karaban is the lone player remaining from UConn’s two recent national championship rosters (2023, 2024). If the Huskies cut down the nets, Karaban would be the NCAA’s first three-time champion in more than 50 years, dating back to John Wooden’s dynasty at UCLA. — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 9
Résumé rating: 6
NCAA seed list: 6
Joey Brackets says …
Some coaches just have a way with March, and Hurley has long been on that list. With a stacked roster capable of winning in so many ways, these Huskies seemed bound for at least the Elite Eight. Instead, a questionable closing kick has left them vulnerable to an upset at the hands of UCLA in the second round.
Final field rank: T-33
Why they will advance
Another year, another season with 20-plus wins for legendary coach Tom Izzo. This year’s Spartans earned their field of 68 invite by adhering to the tenets of Izzology: intense defense, balanced scoring and an everyone-on-the-glass approach. Michigan State plays at a NASCAR-like pace, pushing the ball even after made baskets and relying on elite point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. to make first-rate decisions.
Why they won’t advance
Michigan State ranks 140th nationally in 3-point percentage (34.8%) and attempts an average of just over 21 triples per game, ranking 244th in the country. The lack of spot-up shooters allows foes to run a second defender at either Fears on the perimeter or Jaxon Kohler inside without fear of repercussion. Another wart: MSU plays at such a fast pace that ill-timed turnovers can arise.
Did you know?
During the Izzo era, Michigan State has been as much a part of March Madness as cheerleaders, 5-12 upsets and office pools. The Spartans hold the longest active NCAA tournament appearance streak in college basketball, extending it to 28 consecutive seasons with this year’s trip. The Spartans have also made 10 Final Four appearances, which ranks sixth all time. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 11
Résumé rating: 8
NCAA seed list: 9
Joey Brackets says …
Quality point guard play and experienced rosters are gold during March Madness. The Spartans have one of the nation’s best floor generals in Fears. He is one of four double-digit scorers on the roster — the others being senior bigs Kohler and Carson Cooper, as well as high-flying junior wing Coen Carr. Michigan State will be a very tough out, and it will take Duke to do it in the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: T-5
Why they will advance
Darryn Peterson. Probably the most talented player in college basketball this season, Peterson can light up the highlight reels and fill the stat sheet. He’s the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA draft. The Jayhawks learned to play without him with his numerous injuries, making them more dangerous with Tre White, Flory Bidunga and Melvin Council Jr. stepping up.
Why they won’t advance
Darryn Peterson. As strange as it sounds, the Jayhawks played better without him in the lineup. During the regular season, they were 12-7 with him and 10-2 without him — including losing four of their final seven games of the regular season. They never quite developed the chemistry that’s needed to win it all with him on the floor.
Did you know?
The Jayhawks have been upset in the first or second round in five of the past six tournaments, with the 2022 national championship being the important exception. Last year they lost to 10-seed Arkansas in the opening round. — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 21
Résumé rating: 14
NCAA seed list: 15
Joey Brackets says …
When things are clicking, the Jayhawks can beat anybody, as evidenced by their victory over previously undefeated Arizona in February (without Peterson). But when they’re not clicking … well, let’s just say they have some curious losses. Let’s split the difference and say they advance to the second round but lose to St. John’s just shy of the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 20
Why they will advance
Rick Pitino has the Johnnies winning like an old-school Big East squad: i.e., trying to force teams into a wrestling match. St. John’s forces contact and heads to the line at a high rate, wins on the glass, blocks shots and smothers opponents on defense. Star big man Zuby Ejiofor sets the tone inside, and the team around him responds by bullying opponents up and down the court.
Why they won’t advance
Bully ball is fun, in theory. In practice, it can get ugly, especially when it is inefficient. St. John’s had the second-lowest 2-point percentage in Big East play, without offering dangerous 3-point shooting. When the putbacks and free throws dry up, the Johnnies go cold. UConn forced St. John’s into 24 straight missed shots en route to a blowout in late February.
Did you know?
Despite being one of the sport’s sharpest coaches, it has been over a decade since Rick Pitino has made the tournament’s second weekend. Yes, that period included a year with a postseason ban, a few years away from college coaching and his time at Iona — but it also includes two disappointing tournaments as a 2-seed. — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 18
Résumé rating: 15
NCAA seed list: 18
Joey Brackets says …
Pitino’s streak of tournament runs without seeing the Sweet 16 ends this year. St. John’s has too much toughness and top-end talent to be knocked off early. Instead, the Johnnies muscle their way to two wins — including a victory over Kansas — before exiting the bracket.
Final field rank: 13
Why they will advance
After missing the ACC tournament with a lower back injury, Louisville star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. should be ready to go for March Madness. A presumptive lottery draft pick, Brown is averaging 18.2 points and 4.7 assists. His return will give coach Pat Kelsey a quartet of double-digit scorers, including Ryan Conwell, J’Vonne Hadley and Isaac McKneely.
Why they won’t advance
There will be plenty of chatter about Brown’s back in the coming days. Louisville’s chances of making some March magic diminish greatly if Brown is a no-go or is limited this week. Other potential pain points are the team’s overreliance on the 3-ball, and the fact that its small lineups sometimes result in weak interior defense and rebounding issues against elite competition.
Did you know?
Brown has had nine games with at least 20 points, the most by a freshman in Louisville history. He loves to watch game tapes of old-school former pros such as Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, John Wall and Rajon Rondo for things that he can add to his own offensive toolbox. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 14
Résumé rating: 24
NCAA seed list: 23
Joey Brackets says …
What’s in the, er, Cards for Louisville this week? A lot obviously depends on Brown’s back. If he’s a full go, Kelsey’s club could make a Sweet 16 run. If he isn’t, Louisville’s road to the second weekend gets rockier. I was prepared to split the difference — until I saw the draw against dangerous South Florida. The Cards could be an upset candidate.
Final field rank: 34
Why they will advance
UCLA’s roster features forward Tyler Bilodeau (18.1 PPG) and tough guards Donovan Dent (13.5 PPG), Trent Perry (12.4 PPG), Skyy Clark (11.6 PPG) and Eric Dailey Jr. (11.3 PPG). Mick Cronin has his detractors, but he can flat-out coach. He has 525 wins and has taken the Bruins to three Sweet 16s and one Final Four (2021).
Why they won’t advance
Cronin is an old-school, defense-wins-championships type of coach, so having a team that struggles to maintain defensive intensity and rebound consistently this year has caused a few eruptions. One of college hoops’ most storied programs, the Bruins have allowed 70.5 PPG and are just plus-0.1 in rebounding margin. The absence, at times, of defense in Westwood has haunted them against quality competition.
Did you know?
Dent has averaged 7.6 assists per game this season, ranking fourth in the nation. Since assists have been recorded at UCLA, starting in 1973-74, only three student-athletes have logged at least 7.0 in one season (Pooh Richardson, twice, Lonzo Ball in 2016-17 and Larry Drew II in 2012-13). — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 25
Résumé rating: 31
NCAA seed list: 28
Joey Brackets says …
Cronin can really X and O. This year’s Bruins score in bushels, but have two major warts: (1) They don’t defend up to their coach’s high standards, and (2) they’re a mediocre rebounding team. Those two imperfections will cost them eventually — but not in Philadelphia. UCLA knocks off both UCF and UConn to advance to the second weekend.
Final field rank: 15
Why they will advance
After a month of life on the bubble, the Buckeyes quieted the critics with an impressive four-game winning streak — which included wins over Purdue, Indiana and Iowa — and then a close loss against mighty Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Now in the field of 68, Ohio State could wreak some havoc, thanks to proven scorers Bruce Thornton (20.2 PPG) and John Mobley Jr. (15.8 PPG).
Why they won’t advance
Jake Diebler’s squad has struggled at times on the defensive glass, leading to second-chance points for opponents. Another fatal flaw is that the starting five is strong, but the bench offers few reliable options. That means heavy minutes for the core group of Thornton, Mobley, Devin Royal (13.7 PPG), Christoph Tilly (11.1 PPG) and Amare Bynum (9.8 PPG).
Did you know?
In a sign of the NIL times, Thornton is one of just 22 current power-conference men’s basketball players to play at the same school for four years. The first four-time captain in Ohio State program history, he surpassed Dennis Hopson (1984-87) this season to become the program’s all-time leading scorer. He is at 2,156 career points and counting. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 26
Résumé rating: T-36
NCAA seed list: 31
Joey Brackets says …
The Buckeyes’ core is made up of four double-digit scorers and a fifth (Bynum) within a whisker. They play with a hard-hat toughness, a trait that helped them play themselves firmly off the bubble and into the bracket. But will their stay in Bracketville be lengthy? Probably not, as TCU’s balance proves too much in the first tip of the full bracket.
Final field rank: 38
Why they will advance
The Horned Frogs finished the regular season on somewhat of a roll, winning their final five games and eight of their last nine — including over then-No. 5 Iowa State and at then-No. 10 Texas Tech. They’re balanced, too: Four players average double figures, though no one has more than 13.6 PPG.
Why they won’t advance
While TCU is solid in most areas, it is not exceptional at any one thing. In the NCAA tournament, where the competition gets tougher, it doesn’t have a superpower to rely on. The Frogs can’t depend on 3-point shooting (32.9%), clutch free throw shooting (70.6%) or rebounding dominance (plus-2.7 margin).
Did you know?
TCU is appearing in its 12th NCAA tournament, and Jamie Dixon has been involved in half of those. He helped the Frogs win a game in the tournament in 1987 as the starting point guard, and has been the head coach for the last five appearances. The Frogs are a combined 2-4 so far with him. — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 45
Résumé rating: T-36
NCAA seed list: 34
Joey Brackets says …
A late surge took TCU from the outside of the bubble to solidly in the tournament, and the Frogs have impressed enough to lead me to give them one NCAA win. They’ve got the moxie to escape Ohio State in a true 50-50 game, but that’s it, with Duke on the horizon.
Final field rank: 27
Why they will advance
The Knights have a dynamic duo of transfers from Milwaukee in Themus Fulks and Jamichael Stillwell. Fulks has four points-assists double-doubles on the season, and Stillwell has seven points-rebounds double-doubles. Together, they helped UCF record the school’s fourth 20-win campaign in Johnny Dawkins’ 10 seasons, and the second in their three years in the Big 12.
Why they won’t advance
The Knights struggle on the defensive end. They were near the bottom of the Big 12 in points allowed (78.7 PPG). A lot of that is because they allow opponents to shoot 46% from the field goal (14th in the conference). They can light up the scoreboard on the offensive end (82.0 PPG, fifth in the conference), but it’s usually already lit up on the other end, too.
Did you know?
The Knights had a very successful tenure in Division II before transitioning to Division I in the mid-1980s. They reached the Division II Elite Eight four times in five seasons between 1977 and 1981. They’ve won only one game in the Division I tournament in six trips (2019). — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-55
Résumé rating: 33
NCAA seed list: 38
Joey Brackets says …
Dawkins has built something in Orlando. With no returning players from last year’s team, reaching the NCAA tournament as a Big 12 at-large is something to celebrate. That’s all the Knights will celebrate this season, however, as they won’t survive the first weekend. The “eye test” is worth something in this case.
Final field rank: 43
Why they will advance
The Bulls play fast and attack relentlessly. They rank in the top 10 in the country in total rebounds and offensive rebounding rate. Those extra possessions are put to good use, too: They take and make the most free throws per game. Defenses can’t let up for a moment against USF, lest they allow a putback or an and-1 bucket.
Why they won’t advance
Free throws and putbacks are useful for an offense, but can’t sustain it by themselves against the elite defenses seen in March. South Florida doesn’t have the shooting or creation to really augment its strengths. It’s ranked in the top 25 nationally in 3-point attempts but connects on just 33.1% (237th best). When the other team can out-run-and-gun the Bulls, they run out of answers.
Did you know?
Big man Izaiyah Nelson followed coach Bryan Hodgson from Arkansas State and hasn’t disappointed. He has posted 18 double-doubles this season, leading the American in rebounds per game. On the road at Alabama, he had 25 points and 12 rebounds. — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-50
Résumé rating: 48
NCAA seed list: 46
Joey Brackets says …
South Florida will offer opposing coaching staffs a challenge this week. Its commitment to driving to the cup, forcing contact and pushing the pace makes for a tough scouting and game-planning task. In a one-and-done tournament like this, that can be enough to steal a win over Louisville, and I think USF does that, before falling to Michigan State.
Final field rank: 31
Why they will advance
Dee-fense! Dee-fense! The Panthers lead the nation in fewest points allowed per game, at 61.3. They’re also top five in 3-point percentage defense and top 30 in field goal percentage defense. The Panthers will guard you. Playing a half-court game when every possession matters is their specialty.
Why they won’t advance
They’re not a great offensive team. They can struggle to score, as they did during a five-game losing streak in January. Plus, because of their physical defense, they foul a lot. Their opponents shoot more free throws, by a good margin.
Did you know?
Upsets are part of UNI’s history. Coach Ben Jacobson’s teams have upset a top-ranked team twice: then-No. 1 Kansas in the 2010 tournament, and then-AP No. 1 North Carolina in 2015. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-48
Résumé rating: 51
NCAA seed list: 49
Joey Brackets says …
The Panthers are a well-coached, experienced team capable of a first-round upset — as long as they can slow the game to their preferred pace and make every possession difficult for their opponent. I have a hard time seeing that work against Rick Pitino and St. John’s, however.
Final field rank: 48
Why they will advance
Defense has served as the WAC tournament champs’ calling card in a big way. Cal Baptist runs a pack-line system that limits driving lanes and paint touches, while forcing opponents to take contested jumpers. Rick Croy’s squad also has WAC Player of the Year Dominique Daniels Jr., the nation’s fifth-leading scorer (23.2 PPG), to lean on in a tight spot.
Why they won’t advance
The Lancers simply don’t have the offensive chops to hang around too long. Even with Daniels’ explosive scoring and second team All-WAC guard Martel Williams, CBU rates in the KenPom metrics as a below-average perimeter squad. It has even worse numbers inside the arc. Points may be hard to come by in the school’s first taste of NCAA tournament play.
Did you know?
The WAC tournament title game victory against Utah Valley cemented Cal Baptist’s first trip to the Big Dance. The Lancers made the transition from Division II back in 2018 and endured the obligatory four-year period where they didn’t qualify. This is the program’s third season of NCAA eligibility, and its 25 wins are its highest total since joining Division I. — Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 52
Résumé rating: 50
NCAA seed list: 51
Joey Brackets says …
The annals of March Madness are filled with stories of Cinderellas playing giant killer, and it would be great theater to see the Lancers become the next of those. Daniels could etch his name into the pages of NCAA lore with a huge opening round, and Cal Baptist’s pack-line D could make life difficult for Kansas in a major upset. Count on the former, if not the latter; this one could be very close.
Final field rank: 51
Why they will advance
The 2026 Summit League champ enters the Big Dance with balance that might make even tightrope walker Nik Wallenda jealous. The Bison have six players who average 9.2 points per game or more, including four double-digit scorers in guards Damari Wheeler-Thomas (14.4 PPG), Trevian Carson (12 PPG) and Markhi Strickland (11.8 PPG) and big man Treyson Anderson (10.4 PPG).
Why they won’t advance
The Bison play a small-ball lineup with four guards and one big (either Anderson or superb sixth man Noah Feddersen). That lineup means, against a power-conference team, they’ll struggle, allowing easy buckets around the rim and getting beaten up on the backboards.
Did you know?
David Richman, the 2026 Summit League Coach of the Year, has been a part of the Bison hoops program for a long time. He has spent 19 years at NDSU — seven as an associate head coach, 12 as head coach. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 54
Résumé rating: 54
NCAA seed list: 55
Joey Brackets says …
The Bison have some ingredients a March Madness Cinderella generally possesses, with a balanced scoring attack and two forwards with enough size and strength to deal with power-conference bigs in 6-foot-9 Anderson and 6-10 Feddersen. I expect NDSU to hang around for a little while before first-round foe Michigan State flexes its muscles.
Final field rank: 50
Why they will advance
Although its offense struggled this season (202nd in efficiency), Furman is the rare mid-major with impressive height and length in the frontcourt. Charles Johnston and Cooper Bowser are 6-11 towers patrolling the paint, while point guard Alex Wilkins makes buckets from beyond the arc as well as near the rim. The Paladins are top 50 in 3-point attempt rate and Asa Thomas is their top gunner (39.9%).
Why they won’t advance
Furman faced two KenPom top-100 opponents this season, and things didn’t go well either time. The Paladins lost to eventual Big South champion High Point by 26 in the season opener, and to Missouri Valley champion Northern Iowa by 16 in mid-November. Emerging as the 6-seed from the weakest Southern Conference (23rd out of 31 leagues) in a decade, Bob Richey showed his coaching chops, but the talent gap is too wide now.
Did you know?
Richey has led Furman to 20 or more wins in seven of eight full seasons as head coach (the exception being 16-9 in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season) and a winning Southern Conference record every year. The last time he and the Paladins competed in the NCAA tournament (2023), he guided them to a scintillating 68-67 upset of Virginia in the first round. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-61
Résumé rating: 63
NCAA seed list: 61
Joey Brackets says …
Furman was one of the fun, unexpected stories to emerge from Champ Week, proving yet again why pressure-packed title games in one-bid leagues are as exciting and unpredictable as any played all season. But the postseason ends with a thud for the Paladins against UConn in the first round.
Final field rank: 59
Why they will advance
Siena plays a tough brand of basketball. It defends, rebounds and doesn’t turn it over. The Saints rank 20th in points allowed per game and are 75th in defensive efficiency. They might have a secret weapon in center Riley Mulvey, too. Mulvey averaged just 17.2 minutes this year but played all 40 in the MAAC championship game, where he came up with five blocks, 11 points and 11 boards.
Why they won’t advance
Gerry McNamara has plenty of experience playing in March. McNamara won a national championship as a player at Syracuse. However, no amount of recounting his glory days can prepare his squad for what’s to come. The schedule they played this year, the 348th toughest according to KenPom, won’t have properly tested the Saints, either.
Did you know?
Siena went dancing in three straight seasons from 2008 to 2010. In 2008, the 13th-seeded Saints took down fourth-seeded Vanderbilt. The following year, ninth-seeded Siena defeated 8-seed Ohio State. Although they’ve had a few upsets in their history, the Saints have never been past the round of 32. — Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 62
Résumé rating: 61
NCAA seed list: 63
Joey Brackets says …
Siena winning would be like Joey Brackets breaking 80 on the golf course. Fun, but it will never happen. The Saints are a strong defensive team, but defending against a MAAC squad compared to a power-conference team like Duke is a bit different. The offensive end is a comparable mismatch. Kind of like Joey B being paired with a lousy caddie.
Final field rank: 60
WEST
1:02
Arizona’s NCAA tournament preview
Joe Lunardi breaks down Arizona’s NCAA tournament prospects.
Why they will advance
Size, depth and a great freshman class. Anchored by a front line of 7-2 Motiejus Krivas, 6-8 Koa Peat and 6-7 Ivan Kharchenkov, the Wildcats can rebound with the best of them. Freshmen Peat, Kharchenkov and Brayden Burries make up three of the top five scorers on the team.
Why they won’t advance
The Wildcats haven’t played well in the postseason in recent memory, reaching the Final Four just once (2001) since their national championship in 1997. In Tommy Lloyd’s first four seasons in Tucson, the Wildcats reached the Sweet 16 three times, but lost in that round all three times.
Did you know?
Only four players on the Wildcats’ roster aren’t freshmen or seniors/grad students. They’ve got a talented senior class, led by guard and Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, and one of the best freshman classes in the country. — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 3
Résumé rating: 3
NCAA seed list: 2
Joey Brackets says …
The Wildcats appeared to be the best team in the country for much of the season, winning their first 23 games before back-to-back losses at Kansas and at home to Texas Tech. They have since righted the ship and have enough size and depth to make the deepest possible run. We’ll see the Wildcats in Indianapolis cutting down some nets!
Final field rank: 1
Why they will advance
Matt Painter has an ultra-efficient offense: an attack expertly run by the nation’s most reliable floor general, Braden Smith. He is one of a trio of double-digit scorers for the Boilermakers that includes sweet shooting guard Fletcher Loyer and power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, a nightly double-double threat who owns the nation’s deadliest push shot.
Why they won’t advance
There isn’t always defense in West Lafayette. Most nights, it doesn’t matter because the high-octane offense scores 82.3 points per game. However, the Boilermakers also allow 70.7 points per contest and surrendered 88 points in a loss to Illinois, 91 points in a loss to Michigan, 82 points in a loss to Ohio State and 97 points in a loss to Wisconsin.
Did you know?
Smith is a one-man stat sheet stuffer, averaging 14.9 points, 8.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals while making 38.8% of his 3s this season. One of just five Division I players to notch over 1,000 assists and on pace to become the NCAA’s career assists leader, he strikes the perfect balance between setting up his teammates for success and scoring himself. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 8
Résumé rating: 9
NCAA seed list: 8
Joey Brackets says …
Purdue rolled to a 17-1 start but finished the regular season winning just six of its final 13 games, looking tired the past few weeks. The unexpected Big Ten tourney title will undoubtedly provide a fresh jolt of energy, but in-state Missouri will send the Boilers packing in the round of 32 in St. Louis.
Final field rank: 18
Why they will advance
The Zags rank sixth in the nation in Division I career minutes played, per KenPom, with seven players age 22 or older in the rotation. Many have been all-conference or player of the year in the WCC or elsewhere. Mark Few built a March-ready roster like he was assembling a team for a heist, with an eye on stealing a deep run this month.
Why they won’t advance
Big man Braden Huff has spent the past month sidelined due to injury, with his return yet to be determined. As the Bulldogs’ second-leading scorer, he’s hugely important to an offense that has been great but lacks some punch. Only one team in college hoops scores more of its points on 2-point buckets. The Zags want to dominate the paint, which is tougher without Huff.
Did you know?
Can you remember the last time the Zags failed to win a game in the NCAA tournament? Other than the 2020 COVID-canceled year, Mark Few and the Bulldogs have made the round of 32 every season since 2008. That puts their streak at 16 consecutive tournaments, more than twice as long as the next longest active streak (Houston, with seven). — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 10
Résumé rating: 16
NCAA seed list: 11
Joey Brackets says …
If Huff were fully healthy, Gonzaga would be a seed line higher and have a real chance to make a run into April. Without knowing his status for sure, the Bulldogs can’t be expected to make that same run. Yet another Sweet 16 or Elite Eight will be nice for Few and Zags fans, but they’re miles from that elusive national title.
Final field rank: T-7
Why they will advance
Darius Acuff Jr. is one of the best players in possibly the strongest freshman class in recent college basketball history. The 6-3 point guard has been efficient, electric and virtually unstoppable. John Calipari trusted Acuff to be the catalyst of his team and turned the Hogs loose, resulting in an offense that’s fourth in scoring (90.2 PPG), sixth in adjusted efficiency (127.5) — and simply fun to watch.
Why they won’t advance
Opponents have pounded the Razorbacks in the paint this season. Arkansas enters the tournament outside the top 220 nationally in defensive 2-point percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. Relying solely on offensive acumen is a risky proposition in March, and considering the Hogs are below average in forcing turnovers (229th in the nation), they often lose the critical shot volume battle.
Did you know?
Say what you will about Calipari, who has often been controversial and almost always divisive — even among his own fan base at times — during his 34-year career at four schools: He has 901 wins on his résumé, including winning 76% of his games, and called the shots for 18 regular-season conference titles and 15 conference tournament titles. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 20
Résumé rating: 17
NCAA seed list: 16
Joey Brackets says …
Acuff is appointment television. He put up numbers (22.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, 44% on 3s) unseen in the SEC since LSU great Pete Maravich dazzled everyone in the 1960s with his shooting and passing. Acuff hit 30 points four times in the last month of the season and has the game to carry the Hogs to the Final Four. But his lack of help in the frontcourt will end their run in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 14
Why they will advance
Despite a rocky 9-5 start, Wisconsin has punched its NCAA tournament ticket for the seventh time in the past eight years. The Badgers average 83.3 points, and their 3-ball powered offense is a fun watch. They spread the floor, giving gifted guards Nick Boyd (20.2 PPG) and John Blackwell (18.8 PPG) room to operate, and their bigs the space to do some low-block work.
Why they won’t advance
The Badgers launch over half of their shots from 3-point land and struggle to get offensive rebounds (29.7%, 214th in the nation). It’s a combo that spelled doom in some losses, as Wisconsin had just 11 offensive boards while shooting 7-for-29 from deep against BYU, eight while going 7-for-28 vs. TCU, and 10 while going 7-of-26 against Ohio State.
Did you know?
Greg Gard is defying a basic tenet of aging by going faster as he gets older. Two years ago, he leaped on the analytics train, installing a quicker floor-stretching offense. The result: Wisconsin runs its offense two full seconds faster, on average, than it did in 2024. It’s scoring over 125 adjusted points per 100 possessions, ranking 16th in the country. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 22
Résumé rating: 21
NCAA seed list: 20
Joey Brackets says …
These Badgers have a license to shoot. Wisconsin lives (and will likely die by) the 3-pointer, as 1,029 of the team’s 1,979 shot attempts this season were from behind the arc. Six different Badgers have made 30 or more 3s. So it’ll take a team that defends the arc well to eliminate the Badgers. Arkansas (31.7% 3-point defense) certainly fits the bill in the second round.
Final field rank: 21
Why they will advance
The Cougars have one of the game’s brightest young stars in AJ Dybantsa. The nation’s leading scorer, he can score from outside or inside the arc, in a set offense or in transition. BYU also has good complementary players in Robert Wright III (18.4 PPG) and Keba Keita (7.0 RPG, 6.2 PPG, 1.8 BPG). However …
Why they won’t advance
… The Cougars lost a key part of their rotation when senior Richie Saunders went down with a season-ending ACL injury 45 seconds into an eventual victory over Colorado in mid-February — after which they lost four of their final six regular-season games. They’re just not as good without Saunders and his scoring (18.0 PPG).
Did you know?
BYU is college basketball’s version of the “best golfer to never win a major.” The Cougars have played in 32 NCAA tournaments without ever reaching the Final Four, the most of any school. They’ve reached the Elite Eight only three times, most recently with Danny Ainge in 1981. — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 24
Résumé rating: 23
NCAA seed list: 24
Joey Brackets says …
The Cougars looked so good when they were fully healthy. They were ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP poll this season. That version I could see finally breaking the Final Four jinx. But without Saunders, BYU just doesn’t have the same ceiling. I see the Cougars bowing out to former WCC opponent Gonzaga before the second weekend.
Final field rank: 23
Why they will advance
Former Duke assistant Jai Lucas has done a masterful job building a balanced, cohesive squad centered around two Big Ten transfers: skilled lefty forward Malik Reneau (Indiana) and hard-nosed point guard Tre Donaldson (Michigan). He also brought in highly touted recruit Shelton Henderson, who had originally committed to Duke and has been a two-way force.
Why they won’t advance
With a seven-man rotation, Miami isn’t the deepest team in the Big Dance. If one of the Canes’ four double-figure scorers (Reneau, Donaldson, Henderson or Tru Washington) gets into serious foul trouble, particularly Reneau, it’ll be curtains for the Hurricanes.
Did you know?
It has been a happy homecoming for Reneau, a Miami native who was named to the 2026 All-ACC first team. He leads the team in scoring (19 PPG) to go along with 6.6 rebounds per contest. He also has registered nine double-doubles this season. The All-ACC honor is the third all-conference recognition for Reneau, who earned All-Big Ten honorable mentions as a sophomore and junior at Indiana. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 32
Résumé rating: 25
NCAA seed list: 27
Joey Brackets says …
Lucas took over a program that won just seven games last season and transformed it into a squad that lost just seven regular-season games in 2025-26. Five of those losses came against teams in the field (Florida, BYU, Clemson, Virginia and Louisville). But Miami faces a tough 50-50 opener against Missouri — in St. Louis, no less — and that spells one-and-done for the Hurricanes to me.
Final field rank: 37
Why they will advance
The Wildcats have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the country. Led by five different players who average double-figure scoring, Villanova can adapt to beat you in multiple ways. A mix of drivers, shooters and big Duke Brennan in the middle makes for a difficult defensive game plan.
Why they won’t advance
Villanova is neither a high ceiling nor high variance team. The steady Cats have avoided bad losses, but impressive wins have eluded them, too. In seven games against at-large NCAA tournament teams, they went 1-6. With starter Matt Hodge lost to injury, a shallow roster has an even lower ceiling.
Did you know?
Villanova guard Devin Askew is one of the transfer portal’s most well-traveled players. This is his sixth year of college hoops, after starting at Kentucky and making stops at Texas, Cal, Long Beach State and now Villanova. This is, however, just his second trip to the Big Dance. — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 34
Résumé rating: 26
NCAA seed list: 30
Joey Brackets says …
Villanova has struggled against tournament-level competition all season. With Hodge sidelined, it’s hard to find a good reason to think that will change. Wildcats fans are happy to be back among the Madness, but they’ll see a first-round exit this year.
Final field rank: 40
Why they will advance
Jerrod Calhoun and the Aggies benefited from one of the most experienced rosters in Division I to win the Mountain West regular-season and conference titles. They combine an uber-efficient half-court offense that can score at all three levels with disciplined defense led by three-year starter and MWC POY Mason Falslev and MJ Collins Jr.
Why they won’t advance
Utah State has struggled against physical, athletic defenses, particularly in the half court. South Florida held USU to under 40% shooting from the field and under 30% from beyond the arc back in December and played with plenty of tempo on offense, disrupting a defense that likes to grind its opponents.
Did you know?
Utah State played in the very first NCAA basketball tournament back in 1939. Led by legendary center Wayne Estes, one of the program’s all-time greats, the Aggies were one of eight teams in the field. They lost their opening game to Oklahoma but went on to defeat Texas in the West Regional third-place game. — Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 31
Résumé rating: 29
NCAA seed list: 33
Joey Brackets says …
The Aggies closed their regular season by losing three of their last five, including blowouts in two of them. Those warts cost Utah State a seed line or two, but a favorable draw against short-handed Villanova allows for one more win before Arizona ends the dream.
Final field rank: 24
Why they will advance
Big wins over Florida, Vanderbilt and Tennessee prove that when the Tigers are locked in on defense, they have enough talent to beat anyone. Mark Mitchell had another monster season in the middle, making 184 2-pointers at a 58% clip while also assisting on 21% of Missouri’s field goals.
Why they won’t advance
Losses to Oklahoma and Arkansas to end the regular season as well as an early exit from the SEC tournament at the hands of Kentucky show Mizzou has lost the magic that produced those big wins. Allowing teams to roam free beyond the arc (297th in attempts allowed, 336th in percentage allowed) hasn’t helped.
Did you know?
Dennis Gates has led Missouri to the NCAA tournament three times in four years. It took his predecessors on the sideline a decade to hit that number. This team doesn’t disrupt opposing offenses at the same level as Gates’ previous teams in Columbia, however. Missouri is just 183rd in defensive turnover rate and 159th in steal rate. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 42
Résumé rating: 43
NCAA seed list: 39
Joey Brackets says …
The Tigers look finished. But every year, a team resurrects itself with an out-of-nowhere March spurt. Missouri is my choice this year, playing in St. Louis against a rookie Miami coach and a Purdue power that looked a little too satisfied with its Big Ten tournament title.
Final field rank: 16
Why they will advance
Mid-January wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt prove that Texas’ best is good enough to compete against the best. Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark have loads of experience, are unafraid to take big shots and combined for 110 3-pointers this season. The Longhorns’ aggressive style of attacking the basket also generates the fourth-highest free throw rate in the nation.
Why they won’t advance
The Longhorns almost played their way out of contention down the stretch, losing five of six — including a startling 10-point loss to Ole Miss in their SEC tournament opener. Sean Miller’s squad appears out of sorts, and its 112th-ranked defense and lack of success against elite teams (losses against Duke, Virginia, UConn and Florida) are problematic.
Did you know?
This is Mark’s sixth year of college basketball (injury limited him to seven games in 2022) at his third different school. He was an integral part of Houston’s 2021 Final Four team as a freshman and spent three years in Kelvin Sampson’s program. After one year at Arkansas, he has thrived in Austin, providing a foundation for Miller to build his first team. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 39
Résumé rating: 46
NCAA seed list: 42
Joey Brackets says …
Texas got a nice First Four draw in fading NC State, which should be enough to reach the main bracket. However, other than their surprising Elite Eight run in 2023 under then-interim coach Rodney Terry, the Longhorns haven’t played on the tournament’s second weekend since 2008. That drought will be extended another year.
Final field rank: 45
Why they will advance
First-year coach Will Wade performed an extreme makeover by accepting more transfers than the Chicago Transit Authority and then molding them into a 20-plus-win team. That’s thanks to three double-digit scorers from the portal: Quadir Copeland (14 PPG), Darrion Williams (14 PPG) and Ven-Allen Lubin (13.9 PPG). Returnee Paul McNeil Jr. (13.5 PPG) has a textbook jumper and anywhere-in-the gym range (42.3% from 3).
Why they won’t advance
NC State has a bevy of outside shooters who love to hoist 3-balls. Of its 1,949 shot attempts, 859 were from behind the arc. Four players have made 45 or more 3s this season: McNeil (96), Williams (73), Tre Holloman (50) and Matt Able (47). When the 3s drop, life is good. When they don’t, the Wolfpack will be vulnerable.
Did you know?
Hired last spring and therefore forced to quickly replenish the roster in Raleigh, Wade was a savvy transfer portal shopper, signing a number of players with NCAA tournament experience at their previous stops: Copeland (McNeese), Williams (Texas Tech), Lubin (North Carolina), Holloman (Michigan State), Terrance Arceneaux (Houston) and Alyn Breed (McNeese). — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 36
Résumé rating: 40
NCAA seed list: 41
Joey Brackets says …
NC State is sputtering as it enters the Big Dance (2-7 record in its past nine games). Can it right the ship? Sure. Will it? Probably not. It’s only a matter of time before the team’s overreliance on the 3-ball and its inconsistency on the defensive end of the floor appear. I see the Wolfpack falling to Texas in the First Four.
Final field rank: T-65
Why they will advance
High Point boasts a powerful offense that’s 66th nationally in efficiency and fifth in points per game (90). The Panthers consistently took their shots (sixth in turnover rate) and converted 57% of 2-pointers, ranking 33rd nationally. Terry Anderson (16 PPG, 6 RPG) is a physical, athletic wing. Rob Martin is the poised point guard, the type often featured in replays of March Madness upsets.
Why they won’t advance
High-major teams avoided the Panthers (for good reason) in November and December, so first-year coach Flynn Clayman had to settle for a weak nonconference schedule (355th out of 365) before competing in the Big South, the nation’s 22nd-best league. High Point was also 59th in percentage of points scored on free throws. The trips to the line will be less frequent in the tournament.
Did you know?
High Point returns to the NCAA tournament after losing 75-63 to Purdue in the opening round a year ago. The Panthers have won 86 games over the past three seasons, though, trailing only Duke, Houston and UConn. School president Nido Qubein is a hoops lover who sits courtside at home games in the beautiful 4,500-seat arena named for him and his wife, Mariana. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 49
Résumé rating: 49
NCAA seed list: 50
Joey Brackets says …
Although a typical Cinderella has more firepower beyond the arc (160th in the nation), the Panthers’ backcourt experience, frontcourt depth, positional size and athleticism make them dangerous. They won’t go easily, but they will leave the Dance after 40 minutes against Wisconsin.
Final field rank: 47
Why they will advance
Hawai’i is a good shooting team, often a trait of first-round upsetters. It makes 45% of its shots, led by Isaac Johnson, a skinny 7-footer who makes half of his attempts. The Rainbow Warriors are a decent defensive team that rebounds well (plus-7 rebounding margin) and doesn’t give up a lot of second-chance points.
Why they won’t advance
The Rainbows are sloppy. They accumulated 439 assists compared with 431 turnovers. Johnson, for all his skills, averages only 14 points in 21 minutes a game. Can he play 30 minutes? Hawai’i also traditionally has trouble playing on the mainland; the Warriors played only 11 road games this season, and obviously the long travel to their first-round game could have an effect.
Did you know?
Johnson’s nickname is Big Fish — something he has been called since he was a teenager, according to a TikTok video he made. He says he probably answers more quickly to Fish than Isaac. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 53
Résumé rating: 53
NCAA seed list: 54
Joey Brackets says …
Hawai’i needs to take care of the basketball and limit turnovers to have a shooter’s chance of pulling off an upset. It would help if Johnson could play more than half the game. I’m not sure I see either happening, hence a one-and-done forecast against surging Arkansas.
Final field rank: 53
Why they will advance
Perseverance might be the Owls’ biggest asset. Their leading scorer, Simeon Cottle, was involved in a gambling scandal and is no longer with the team. Somehow, they were able to regroup, finish the season strongly and snatch the auto-bid in only their second season in Conference USA. The emergence of freshman guard RJ Johnson to be the team’s leading scorer made a difference.
Why they won’t advance
This is a high-scoring team (83.5 PPG), but the Owls are not skilled offensively. Let us explain: Defense creates a lot of their offense, and it’s not always pretty to watch. They also foul too much; opponents average 27 free throws per game. Their only challenging nonconference games ended up as bad losses to South Florida and Alabama.
Did you know?
This is Kennesaw’s second NCAA tournament appearance. The first was two seasons ago under the late Amir Abdur-Rahim. Current coach Antoine Pettway remembered Abdur-Rahim after the CUSA championship. “I’m just standing on the shoulder of that giant,” he said. “[Abdur-Rahim] started all this. He set the tone … And it was just my job to continue it.” — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 57
Résumé rating: 64
NCAA seed list: 58
Joey Brackets says …
There’s a lot of emotion surrounding this Kennesaw State team, connected to its late former coach and its ability to overcome the gambling scandal that affected its roster. But that won’t be enough to carry the Owls beyond Gonzaga in the first round.
Final field rank: 57
Why they will advance
The Royals like to outscore people, and they’re highly capable of turning a game into a track meet, hoping their opponent can’t keep up. Six players average double figures, led by Nasir Mann (13.4), the younger brother of Charlotte Hornets guard Tre Mann.
Why they won’t advance
While scoring all those points (84.9 per game), Queens gives up a staggering 82.9 per game to its opponents. Only 12 teams in Division I surrender more. The Royals are also a below-average rebounding team, having been outrebounded for the season and ranking 281st in the country in rebounding margin.
Did you know?
A statue of a dog will sit behind the Queens bench in St. Louis. It’s Buddy the Street Dog, which is presented postgame to the player who displays the most fight and energy. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 63
Résumé rating: 60
NCAA seed list: 62
Joey Brackets says …
The NCAA tournament could be overwhelming for Queens, considering this is the school’s fourth Division I season and first NCAA bid. And given how porous their defense has been, the Royals have the look of a first-round loser versus Purdue.
Final field rank: 58
Why they will advance
The Sharks were a dominant team in a bad league, but they had some decent road victories this season, winning at Missouri State, Air Force and LaSalle. They also had tough nonconference losses to Illinois, Georgia, Mississippi State and Notre Dame. Leading scorer Jamal Fuller has been a good find, having previously played at Hill College and Division II Academy of Art.
Why they won’t advance
The Sharks lack size. Rod Strickland, the former DePaul All-American and NBA player, basically plays four guards most of the game. And, for an undersized team, they don’t shoot it particularly well: 35.8% from 3, 67.3% from the free throw line.
Did you know?
The last time LIU played in the NCAAs (2018), the team wore dark blue uniforms and was called the Blackbirds. LIU then merged with C.W. Post, became the Sharks and now wears light blue. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 66
Résumé rating: 62
NCAA seed list: 64
Joey Brackets says …
For LIU, it’s nice to play in the tournament, but the Sharks won’t have enough bite to pull off an upset. They lack both size and depth. The team’s four leading scorers all play more than 30 minutes per game. Arizona awaits.
Final field rank: 62
MIDWEST
0:44
Michigan’s NCAA tournament preview
Joe Lunardi breaks down the Michigan Wolverines’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Why they will advance
Fueled by the jumbo frontcourt of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara — all transfer portal additions who were centers at their previous stops — Michigan has bullied teams all season. Dusty May’s group is one of the cut-down-the-nets favorites, especially after recording 24 victories this season by 10 or more points, 13 by 20-plus points and 10 by 30-plus points.
Why they won’t advance
One of Michigan’s few warts is turnovers. The Wolverines will need to take good care of the ball or their stay in Bracketville will be briefer than hoped. Their backcourt depth also took a hit after sophomore super sub L.J. Cason suffered a torn ACL in February, robbing them of a big scorer and extra ball handler.
Did you know?
Lendeborg is Michigan’s first Big Ten Player of the Year selection since Nik Stauskus in 2013-14. A transfer from UAB, he has made a monstrous impact at both ends of the floor, leading the Wolverines in scoring while also displaying the ability to guard everyone from point guards to centers. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 2
Résumé rating: 1
NCAA seed list: 3
Joey Brackets says …
Michigan was a popular national title pick until a loss to Duke last month soured some. Its bigs are elite, so it’ll go as far as its guards, led by Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney, take it. The loss of Cason is critical here, though, and will cost Michigan a shot at a title, maybe even the Final Four.
Final field rank: T-5
Why they will advance
This might be the best version of the Cyclones we’ve seen. They have experienced leaders who play well together. Tamin Lipsey doesn’t get the publicity of some point guards, but he’s steady. Joshua Jefferson doesn’t get the recognition he deserves either, because he’s more solid than flashy. Milan Momcilovic is the best 3-point shooter in the country statistically. This group is never out of a game.
Why they won’t advance
The Cyclones haven’t done as well as their seedings have projected through the years. They’ve reached the Elite Eight only twice (1944, when there were only eight teams in the tournament, and 2000) and the Final Four once (1944). They have to figure out their kryptonite to be able to advance further.
Did you know?
The Cyclones have reached the Sweet 16 in four of the past five even-numbered years in which there was a tournament (2018 was the exception besides the 2020 COVID-canceled edition). They haven’t reached that round in an odd-numbered year since 1997. — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 6
Résumé rating: 10
NCAA seed list: 7
Joey Brackets says …
It’s so tempting to say T.J. Otzelberger will take the Cyclones to Indianapolis, and I’m finally prepared to do it. They’re capable of beating anybody — see: a 23-point road win over then-No. 1 Purdue in early December — but will need to overcome bad NCAA memories. This time, the dream finally comes true.
Final field rank: 4
Why they will advance
Ryan Odom has reversed Virginia basketball fortunes in his first season in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers were the ACC’s best team not named Duke, thanks to the presence of Belgian breakout star Thijs De Ridder, a cadre of 3-point shooters and the imposing center duo of Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso (who are adept at both swatting shots and gobbling up offensive boards).
Why they won’t advance
The Cavaliers rely heavily on the 3-ball, and their shooting has been wayward at times against top-tier competition (29.1% in a regular-season loss at Duke). In addition, Virginia has been prone to scoring droughts and has struggled against pressure defense in losses to Virginia Tech (17 turnovers) and North Carolina (11 turnovers).
Did you know?
Virginia’s balanced attack is led by a trio of double-digit scorers in forward De Ridder (15.9 PPG) and guards Malik Thomas (12.1 PPG) and Sam Lewis (10.4 PPG). But over the course of this magical season, seven different Cavaliers have led the team in scoring in a game: De Ridder, Thomas, Lewis, Dallin Hall, Chance Mallory, Onyenso and Jacari White. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 16
Résumé rating: 7
NCAA seed list: 12
Joey Brackets says …
Virginia is one of the feel-good stories in college hoops this season after Odom completely rebuilt the program with a mix of transfer portal gems and international players. This deep team figures to be a tough out as Odom can X-and-O with the best of them. Look for the Cavaliers to win two games, then lose to Iowa State in the Midwest semifinals.
Final field rank: T-11
Why they will advance
Once again, Nate Oats has built a blazing, potent offense capable of burying any opponent with baskets in bunches. Alabama leads the nation in scoring (92.1 PPG) and is third in efficiency, playing at the fourth-fastest pace. Aden Holloway (if available following a pre-tournament arrest) and Labaron Philon Jr. pack perimeter punch, combining for 144 3s, each shooting better than 40% from distance.
Why they won’t advance
The Crimson Tide have been inconsistent on the defensive end, allowing at least 1.16 points per possession in eight of their losses. Preventing second-chance opportunities has been the major issue (293rd in defensive rebounding percentage), and Bama doesn’t create extra possessions with pressure either, ranking 362nd in defensive turnover rate and 248th in steals. Holloway was its second-leading scorer, too, before his arrest Monday.
Did you know?
Alabama believes in 3-pointers and layups — and nothing in between. It launched 54% of its shots from beyond the arc, a higher rate than any team in the nation. It scored 41% of its points on 3s (11th) but was invisible in the paint, ranking 363rd in points scored on 2-point field goals. Live by the 3, die by the 3, indeed. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 17
Résumé rating: 12
NCAA seed list: 14
Joey Brackets says …
Winning six consecutive games in the NCAA tournament is always a chore, and the inherent variance that comes with Oats’ offensive philosophy, paired with the squad’s defensive woes, keeps the Tide living on the edge. They shot just 25% on 3s in last year’s Elite Eight loss to Duke and allowed 86 points to UConn in the 2024 title game. The pattern continues as Bama’s season ends on the second weekend — with or without Holloway.
Final field rank: 8
Why they will advance
The Red Raiders are resilient. Even after losing defending Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin to a season-ending knee injury in a loss at Arizona State, they finished in a three-way tie for third in the Big 12. With so many good point guards in the conference, Christian Anderson is often overlooked, but he’s a true leader, a reliable shooter and a stat sheet stuffer.
Why they won’t advance
You don’t lose someone of Toppin’s caliber without it hurting you at some point. His team-leading numbers in scoring (21.8), rebounding (10.8), blocks (1.7) and steals (1.4) will be missed when the Red Raiders go up against a team with depth on the front line.
Did you know?
Despite a long and successful history, the Red Raiders have never had a first-team All-American. Last season, Toppin became just their third player (Andre Emmett in 2003-04 and Jarrett Culver in 2018-19) to be named a second-team All-American. — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 19
Résumé rating: 19
NCAA seed list: 19
Joey Brackets says …
The injuries have to catch up to the Red Raiders eventually, right? The “what-if” narrative could begin with an upset loss to Akron.
Final field rank: T-33
Why they will advance
Although this season’s Vols snapped the program’s five-year streak of having a top-five defense (they were 15th nationally), handling the paint and forcing difficult 3-point jump shots is still a strong identity, especially when paired with the best offensive rebounding unit in the nation. Nate Ament will be a lottery draft pick, and his versatility and smooth scoring touch (17 PPG) can carry Rick Barnes’ team.
Why they won’t advance
Teams that can’t shoot and rely on offensive rebounds and drawing fouls for their offensive production often struggle in the NCAA tournament, when officials tend to ignore touch fouls and force teams to finish through contact in the lane. Tennessee is 166th in 2-point percentage, 209th in 3-point percentage and struggles at the free throw line (69.2%), making it ripe for an upset.
Did you know?
After two mediocre campaigns to start his tenure in Knoxville, Barnes has led Tennessee to every NCAA tournament since 2018, earning a 5-seed or better each time. The Vols keep inching closer to the elusive Final Four, bowing out in the regional final each of the past two years. Last year’s 50-point effort in the Elite Eight against Houston is an ugly memory. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 12
Résumé rating: 22
NCAA seed list: 21
Joey Brackets says …
It would be ironic if this team, slightly weaker than Barnes’ recent previous editions, is the one to deliver Tennessee fans a joyful final weekend. But that’s not happening unless the shooting fairy sprinkles some magic dust in the next four days. Ranking 335th in points scored on 3s is a weakness too bright to overlook, and a brickfest in the round of 32 is the most likely conclusion.
Final field rank: 22
Why they will advance
The Wildcats won’t be intimidated or easily impressed by any opponent after facing the nation’s fourth-most-difficult schedule. Otega Oweh is the alpha playmaker a coach needs in March, and Mark Pope is happy to let him create buckets for himself (18.2 PPG). Wingman Denzel Aberdeen, who helped Florida cut down the nets last season, gives the Cats a proven 3-point threat.
Why they won’t advance
It was difficult to know what to expect from the Wildcats every game. They flashed their upside in a December win over St. John’s on a neutral floor, a regular-season sweep of Tennessee and a road win at Arkansas. But they also enter the bracket having lost six of their past seven contests against top-50 teams. UK doesn’t have an obvious strength it can rely upon.
Did you know?
Kentucky, one of college basketball’s top five programs all time, last reached the Final Four in 2015. Its Sweet 16 appearance a year ago was the first time Big Blue Nation had something to do on the second weekend since 2018. Couple that with another early exit from the SEC tournament — once referred to as the “Kentucky Invitational” — and March ain’t what it used to be. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 27
Résumé rating: 27
NCAA seed list: 25
Joey Brackets says …
After watching Kentucky’s uneven play this season, it’s hard to expect it to make anything other than a cameo in this tournament. There’s not an obvious NBA talent on the roster, and the Wildcats have no identity. They earned a spot in the field through stiff nonconference scheduling and conference affiliation, which outweighed their achievements on the floor.
Final field rank: 36
Why they will advance
In 2022-23, Mike White’s first season in Athens, the Bulldogs ranked 190th in offensive efficiency. They’ve improved by roughly 60 spots per season, peaking at 16th — the program’s best showing since 2003. They’re an average 3-point shooting squad, but they are excellent inside the arc, they take good care of the ball (32nd in turnover rate) and they hammer the offensive glass for extra shots.
Why they won’t advance
The Bulldogs played a 326th-ranked nonconference schedule. They had impressive home victories over Arkansas and Alabama but accomplished little away from Stegeman Coliseum outside of a mid-February win at Kentucky. Ranking 79th in defensive efficiency, 111th in effective field goal percentage defense and 336th in defensive rebounding is a scary trio.
Did you know?
White’s move to Athens wasn’t sexy at the time, but he has led Georgia to three consecutive 20-win seasons (which hadn’t happened since 2008) and landed the Dawgs in back-to-back NCAA tournaments (which last happened in 2003). White has also delivered the “exciting brand of basketball” many coaches promise, with a top-10 tempo and top-five scoring. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 33
Résumé rating: 32
NCAA seed list: 32
Joey Brackets says …
It’s been fun to give the Bulldogs faithful something to talk about this time of year other than the quarterbacks coach or the battle for backup left tackle over in Sanford Stadium. But Georgia’s time in the bracket will be brief. Its inadequacies defending and rebounding will be too much to overcome and spell a quick return to Athens.
Final field rank: T-33
Why they will advance
The Atlantic 10 regular-season co-champs enter the field of 68 as one of the nation’s most balanced teams. The Billikens score at a breakneck pace, with seven players in Josh Schertz’s rotation averaging at least nine points a game — paced by conference POY Robbie Avila, aka Larry Nerd. They also boast the nation’s third most efficient defense and can dictate the game at both ends of the floor.
Why they won’t advance
Saint Louis enters the Big Dance leaking oil. It looked asleep at the wheel in its regular-season finale at George Mason, a game it needed to win to lock up an outright A-10 crown. Losses in three of the Billikens’ final six regular-season games suggest Schertz’s guys might not quite be ready to show out on college basketball’s biggest stage, particularly with Avila nursing a sore foot.
Did you know?
Saint Louis appeared in three consecutive NCAA tournaments from 2012 to 2014, marking the only such span in school history. The Billikens beat Memphis in 2012 before bowing out to Tom Izzo and Michigan State. SLU also took care of its opening-round opponents in 2013 and 2014, ultimately exiting in the third round in each of those years. — Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 38
Résumé rating: 34
NCAA seed list: T-35
Joey Brackets says …
The A-10’s crown jewel has the right combination of experience, scoring punch and lockdown defense to make a run to the second weekend. Unfortunately, injuries have slowed star big man Avila and dropped Saint Louis into an 8-9 death seat. Give the Billikens a win over Georgia, but that’s it.
Final field rank: 28
Why they will advance
Santa Clara plays the quickest tempo in the WCC and spreads teams out to score from all over. With eight players shooting at least 2.5 triples on a nightly basis, the Broncos do a ton of damage via the 3-point line. The result is a top-25 offense in the country, capable of hanging 90-plus points on any defense.
Why they won’t advance
The Broncos’ offense works, but there’s one major issue: This is one of the most free-throw-averse teams in the country, ranking 358th in free throw rate. It’s an odd quirk, given the Broncos do attack the rim, leading the WCC in shortest average 2-pointer, per KenPom. But games in March ask teams to play tough through contact — a test for Santa Clara.
Did you know?
It’s been 30 years since the Broncos last danced. That 1996 Santa Clara team was led by future NBA legend Steve Nash and won a first-round game. This is also the first team coach Herb Sendek has taken to the tournament since 2014, but it’s his fourth school over his 33-year career. — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 37
Résumé rating: 38
NCAA seed list: 37
Joey Brackets says …
Santa Clara’s 3-point prowess and balance on the offensive end of the floor make for a difficult defensive game plan. That’s good enough to spark an upset win over Kentucky. Santa Clara might even be the better team in that matchup, so let’s not call it an upset.
Final field rank: 29
Why they will advance
The RedHawks will just outscore teams, daring opponents to keep up. They’re top five nationally in scoring and various field goal percentages. Plus, whom do you stop? They have seven players averaging double figures. They don’t turn the ball over much either.
Why they won’t advance
It’s no secret the RedHawks did play a weak schedule, ranking in the 300s. Then they lost to UMass in the first round of the MAC tournament. The NCAAs will be a different level of competition. Rebounding and inside play are a weakness; there is good overall team height, but they could soon be facing power conference teams with huge height advantages.
Did you know?
Travis Steele’s team has a clutch gene. Miami won eight games that ended either in overtime or in just a one-possession advantage. It is also the first MAC at-large bid recipient this century. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-50
Résumé rating: 39
NCAA seed list: 44
Joey Brackets says …
If there’s a benevolent basketball god, this team will reach the Sweet 16 just to prove a point to all the snobby naysayers who criticized the RedHawks all season. With their offensive skills and supreme confidence, they’re capable of getting there. But we fear the dream ends early against SMU in nearby Dayton.
Final field rank: 66
Why they will advance
After weeks of bubble talk, SMU’s hoops résumé was deemed NCAA tournament-worthy. Now in the field, the high-scoring Mustangs (84.2 PPG), led by Boopie Miller (19.2 PPG) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 PPG), could be the party guests who won’t leave. Miller and Pierre are just two of five double-digit scorers, along with recently returned from injury B.J. Edwards (12.7 PPG), Corey Washington (11.1 PPG) and Samet Yigitoglu (10.8 PPG).
Why they won’t advance
Andy Enfield’s squad is limping into the NCAA tournament (1-5 record in its past six games). Although the Mustangs can score against anyone, their defense allows 77.6 points per game. So, unless they can regain their collective confidence and offer more resistance at the defensive end, their tournament run will be short.
Did you know?
SMU has a chance to do something it hasn’t done in nearly 40 years: Win a game in the NCAA tournament. Its last NCAA tournament triumph came in 1988 when, coached by Dave Bliss, it beat Notre Dame to advance to the second round, where it lost to No. 2 seed Duke. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 40
Résumé rating: 44
NCAA seed list: 43
Joey Brackets says …
Given that NCAA tournament victory drought, there might well be early-game jitters for the Mustangs. If they can manage those nerves, I can see SMU and its high-octane, Boopie Miller-led offense taking out mid-major darling Miami (Ohio) before the real tourney gets started.
Final field rank: 44
Why they will advance
Miami won the MAC regular season with its undefeated run, but many people would argue Akron was the best team in the league. The predictive metrics would agree. The Zips are an offensive juggernaut, averaging 88.3 points per game, seventh in the nation. They’re also highly ranked in field goal percentage (10th), effective field goal percentage (eighth) and 3-point percentage (18th). The catalyst is guard Tavari Johnson, who averages 20 PPG.
Why they won’t advance
Despite their excellent record, the Zips do have some losses that raise eyebrows. They were blown out by Purdue and Murray State. They also lost to Troy — although that game was played in Alabama. Despite their gaudy record, they also struggled in the MAC tournament and were lucky to beat Toledo in the final when Shammah Scott connected on a long 3-pointer to win the game.
Did you know?
John Groce has secured key transfers from Ohio State as part of his roster-building strategy: Evan Mahaffey and Bowen Hardman. Getting Evan helped bring in his brother Eric Mahaffey, who’s a redshirt freshman. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 47
Résumé rating: 47
NCAA seed list: 48
Joey Brackets says …
Akron has been to seven NCAA tournaments, including the past three, and has never won a game. But this group of players has experienced the tournament, and if they play to the level they have done at points this season, they could steal their first-round tussle against very possibly short-handed Alabama.
Final field rank: 32
Why they will advance
Unknown mid-major guards make the magic happen each March, and no team enters the bracket with a hotter backcourt than Hofstra. Freshman star Preston Edmead hit the winning 3-pointer in the CAA semis and delivered a career-high 26 points in the final, playing all 40 minutes. Cruz Davis led the CAA in scoring (20.2 PPG) and was CAA Player of the Year.
Why they won’t advance
Edmead and Cruz are the Pride’s only double-figure scorers, and the bench production is scarce (310th in minutes). Hofstra knocked off Pittsburgh and Syracuse while losing by only four at UCF, but those were the only three games it played against top-100 KenPom teams. The elite 2-point defense (only 44.2% allowed) isn’t likely to hold up against a stronger frontcourt, either.
Did you know?
This is Hofstra’s first time representing the CAA in the NCAA tournament and its first bracket appearance since 1991, when Jay Wright led the program to the America East championship. The Pride won the 2020 CAA championship, but the NCAA tournament was canceled one week later. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 52
Résumé rating: 51
NCAA seed list: 52
Joey Brackets says …
Edmead and Davis become the latest dynamic duo to carve its name into March lore, and four-year Hofstra player German Plotnikov, who swished a crucial 3 late in the CAA title game against Monmouth, continues his timely shooting. The Pride have ample athleticism inside to battle around the rim and hang for a half against Alabama.
Final field rank: 49
Why they will advance
The young Raiders owned the most balanced offensive attack in the Horizon League (80.7 PPG), with six players averaging at least 8.7 points. They’re led in scoring by outstanding freshman sixth man Michael Cooper (13.4 PPG) and first-team All Horizon League sophomore guard TJ Burch (12.3 PPG). Six of Wright State’s top seven scorers are freshmen or sophomores.
Why they won’t advance
The Big Dance is a pressure-packed situation, and Clint Sargent has a rotation littered with underclassmen. Can the young pups handle the national spotlight? Wright State has one of the nation’s top men of steals in Burch (2.5 steals per game) and yet was near the bottom of the Horizon League in forcing turnovers, averaging only 12 per game.
Did you know?
Wright State is the third straight Horizon League team to sweep the regular season and tournament titles, after Oakland (2024) and Robert Morris (2025). To the victor also went the award spoils, as Burch earned Defensive Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year honors, while Kellen Pickett captured the Horizon League Freshman of the Year and Sargent was the league’s Coach of the Year. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-55
Résumé rating: 58
NCAA seed list: 57
Joey Brackets says …
The Horizon League representatives have represented the conference well in the Big Dance of late, as 2024 champ Oakland stunned Kentucky and 2025 champ Robert Morris led Alabama with just over seven minutes left before falling to the Crimson Tide 90-81. Wright State has the depth, size and balanced scoring to make a third straight strong showing before falling to Virginia in Philly.
Final field rank: 54
Why they will advance
Former Duke All-American Nolan Smith has done a remarkable job in his first year as head coach at Tennessee State. He has molded a team that plays its best basketball in fast-paced, nearly chaotic situations. Guard Aaron Nkrumah, a former Division III player, causes disarray defensively and is second in the nation in steals.
Why they won’t advance
The Tigers are an erratic offensive team at times. If they can’t get easy baskets from great defense, they can struggle in the half court. And if they fall too far behind, it can be difficult for them to claw their way back as they shoot only 33.1% from 3, 238th in the country.
Did you know?
Point guard Dante Harris was the MVP of the 2022 Big East Tournament while playing at Georgetown. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 64
Résumé rating: 57
NCAA seed list: 59
Joey Brackets says …
When Tennessee State stepped outside the OVC in the nonconference it didn’t end well, with big losses to Tennessee, Belmont and Western Kentucky. The Tigers will be one and done. Their talent level just doesn’t stack up against an opponent like Iowa State.
Final field rank: 56
Why they will advance
The Retrievers are on a 12-game winning streak and, statistically, have some solid numbers — maybe even excellent numbers, for a low major. Their margin of victory, nine points per game, ranks 49th in the country as they dominated the America East. They are balanced, ranking inside the top 100 nationally in field goal percentage and field goal percentage defense.
Why they won’t advance
Lack of size and bulk will hurt. The Retrievers are a perimeter-oriented team and will have difficulty defending opponents in the paint. Their best players are guards; the frontcourt players will not have a real impact on the game. Stepping up in competition didn’t go well for them this season as they lost at Dayton, Georgetown, George Washington and South Florida.
Did you know?
UMBC was the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament, upsetting Virginia in 2018. That was also the last time UMBC was in the field — until now. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-61
Résumé rating: 59
NCAA seed list: 66
Joey Brackets says …
UMBC is the strongest automatic qualifier in Dayton and should comfortably defeat Howard. The Retrievers might be more talented than the historic 2018 squad but won’t have as much luck advancing. Michigan ends their story in Buffalo.
Final field rank: 61
Why they will advance
The Bison bring it on the defensive end of the floor. Howard led the MEAC in a host of defensive categories, including field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding rate and turnovers — its specialty. It used that stingy defense to pick up a quality win at UNC Wilmington and drag Yale into overtime.
Why they won’t advance
Although they can force turnovers as well as anyone, the Bison are just as liable to cough up the ball on offense. They rank 343rd in turnover rate, with just five single-digit turnover games this season. Per KenPom, no team in America committed a higher rate of nonsteal turnovers. Those are purely unforced errors.
Did you know?
It’s safe to say Howard head coach Kenny Blakeney knows a thing or two about the NCAA tournament. This marks three bids in four years of him leading the Bison, after he played on two tournament teams at Duke in the early 1990s — including the 1992 national championship roster. — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 65
Résumé rating: 65
NCAA seed list: 65
Joey Brackets says …
Howard is stronger than most teams that advance from the MEAC to the tournament, with an elite ability to get stops and force turnovers. That could be enough to challenge a Goliath if it gets that far, but it’s not likely. The Bison fall to semi-neighbor UMBC in the First Four.
Final field rank: T-65
SOUTH
0:30
Houston Cougars’ NCAA men’s tournament preview
Joe Lunardi breaks down Tennessee’s NCAA tournament prospects.
Why they will advance
The defending champions possess the ingredients and recipe to cook up another net-cutting ceremony in Indianapolis. Thomas Haugh, the 6-9 small forward, scores across the court, 6-10 Rueben Chinyelu is the nation’s best rebounder (top five in offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding percentage) and, after some sloppy games early, guards Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland found the groove at the right time.
Why they won’t advance
The Gators need to find the touch from long range. In this era of points and pace, it seems unlikely their 31.3% accuracy on 3-pointers this season — 321st nationally — is good enough to survive and advance to the last weekend. Florida was slightly better in SEC play (33.8%), but difficulty from downtown could lead to a quick trip back to Gainesville.
Did you know?
Only two programs have repeated as national champions since UCLA’s ridiculous run through the 1970s, and the Gators are on that elite list, turning the trick in 2006 and 2007 under Billy Donovan. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 4
Résumé rating: 4
NCAA seed list: 4
Joey Brackets says …
The Gators’ combination of size, experience and sideline strategy is the ideal mix to fuel another Final Four run. Fland seems ripe to channel his inner Walter Clayton Jr. as a late-game playmaker, and Haugh has the versatility and swagger to cause matchup nightmares for any opponent. Rebounds are plentiful in March, and nobody gathers them better than Florida. I think we’ll see the Gators in Indy for at least the national semifinals.
Final field rank: 3
Why they will advance
The Cougars still play great defense. They ended the regular season ranked second in Division I in points allowed per game and 22nd in field goal percentage allowed. Even with star freshmen headlining the roster, Houston boasts a seasoned lineup in the transfer portal era. It retains its players more than most programs, which comes in handy in crunch time.
Why they won’t advance
The Cougars lost three straight games this season, for the first time since 2016-17. That stretch — albeit at Iowa State, at home to Arizona and at Kansas in a seven-day span — exposed some flaws. They tend to pass up good shots looking for great ones too often. And depending so much on freshmen can be risky if those freshmen play like it in March.
Did you know?
Houston has been to the Final Four seven times without ever winning the title. That’s the most of any program, two more than Illinois with the next most winless trips. The Cougars have lost in the championship game three times, including last season when they fell to Florida in a 65-63 thriller. — David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 5
Résumé rating: 5
NCAA seed list: 5
Joey Brackets says …
It would be great to see Kelvin Sampson finally get the Cougars their first national title, but their inconsistency down the stretch has me worried. They have Final Four potential, but I see them falling short of their eighth trip.
Final field rank: 9
Why they will advance
Brad Underwood’s squad features the lethal combo platter of a high-octane offense (84.5 PPG), balanced scoring (five different players average in double figures, led by surprising freshman Keaton Wagler and his backcourt mates Andrej Stojakovic and Kylan Boswell) and NBA-type length at every position. The Fighting Illini are the tallest team in the nation, with an average height of nearly 6-8.
Why they won’t advance
This squad has a propensity to score, defend without fouling and rebound like banshees, so it will likely take a nationally ranked name-brand team to evict it from the tournament. During the regular season, Illinois suffered only seven losses, all to teams in the Dance: UConn, Alabama, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, UCLA and Michigan.
Did you know?
In the year of the freshman, Wagler is the most improbable wonder. Going into the final summer of his high school career, he was the 261st-ranked player in the high school class of 2025. He leads the Illini in scoring and assists per game and won’t have to wait long to hear his name called in the 2026 NBA draft. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 7
Résumé rating: 18
NCAA seed list: 10
Joey Brackets says …
The Illini looked like a Final Four team in late January, but a so-so February has given some people pause. Despite the doubts, I don’t expect them to exit the tournament until the Elite Eight against Florida.
Final field rank: T-7
Why they will advance
Fred Hoiberg has fueled this Cinderella story with airtight defense and savvy transfer portal shopping. Four of Nebraska’s top six scorers once played elsewhere: Pryce Sandfort (Iowa), Rienk Mast (Bradley), Berke Buyuktuncel (UCLA) and Jamarques Lawrence (Rhode Island). Hoiberg also has a superb freshman in sixth man Braden Frager and his own headband-wearing son, Sam Hoiberg, who does a little bit of everything.
Why they won’t advance
The Cornhuskers are one of the feel-good stories in college hoops. They feature elite spacing and willingly share the rock on offense, while Hoiberg has instilled a team-wide desire to defend. The approach has worked beautifully, as Nebraska won its first 20 games and skyrocketed up the polls. The Huskers won’t beat themselves and will go home only when a deep, athletic power-conference team beats them.
Did you know?
Nebraska is one of the 10 losingest high-major hoops programs and is the only power-conference school that has never won an NCAA tournament game. Hence, the comparisons to Indiana football — another red-and-white-wearing Big Ten program that suddenly morphed into a power. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 15
Résumé rating: 13
NCAA seed list: 13
Joey Brackets says …
In all five of its regular-season losses, Nebraska has been outrebounded, including four times by double digits — 35-23 at Michigan, 40-27 vs. Illinois, 54-37 vs. Purdue, 37-24 at Iowa. So it’ll likely take an athletic, glass-eating foe to end the Cornhuskers’ magical 2026 season. My guess? It’ll be Vanderbilt, after the Cornhuskers get their first NCAA tournament win in school history.
Final field rank: 19
Why they will advance
Mark Byington has done a remarkable job in two seasons at Vanderbilt, leading the program to 45 victories and back-to-back NCAA tournaments. This team thrives on an electric offense (eighth nationally in efficiency) that isn’t afraid to push the pace, yet avoids turnovers (13th) and shoots efficiently on 2s (25th) and 3s (111th). It’s all led by slick point guard Tyler Tanner (19.2 PPG).
Why they won’t advance
Although the Commodores have abundant speed, skill and shooting, they are deficient in size. Only one player in the rotation is taller than 6-7, and that lack of height was exposed in SEC play, where they ranked 13th in the conference in offensive rebounding and 10th on the defensive glass. The triples landed less frequently in conference games (33%) too, and their aggressive defense has led to free throws for opponents.
Did you know?
Vanderbilt has one of the most balanced and impressive advanced analytics résumés, creating a sea of green on its KenPom page. In addition to the lofty rankings in offensive efficiency, turnover rate and 2-point shooting, the Commodores are also top 25 in free throw percentage, block percentage and steal percentage. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 13
Résumé rating: 11
NCAA seed list: 17
Joey Brackets says …
Diverse offense wins in March, and the Commodores have the requisite balance and depth to make their first appearance in the Sweet 16 since Kevin Stallings steered them there in 2007. But the lack of muscle around the basket will send Vandy packing in a rematch with revenge-minded Florida.
Final field rank: T-11
Why they will advance
North Carolina enters the Big Dance without first-team All-ACC forward Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, both team bests). A surefire 2026 NBA lottery pick, Wilson broke his right thumb dunking in early March and is out for the season. Without him, UNC will lean heavily on junior center Henri Veesaar (16.3 PPG) and guards Seth Trimble (14 PPG) and Luka Bogavac (10 PPG).
Why they won’t advance
The loss of Wilson, a nightly double-double threat, hurts on the backboards. Replacing him is a two-person job, as Jarin Stevenson (7.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Zayden High (3.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG) now take on much bigger roles. North Carolina ranks 91st nationally in opponent rebounding percentage (29.6%), the program’s worst mark since 2015-16. Those second-chance opportunities can prove fatal in a win-or-go-home NCAA tournament game.
Did you know?
Veesaar was an impact transfer portal addition from Arizona, giving the Tar Heels an inside-outside scoring threat who earned second-team All-ACC honors. Veesaar joins Bob McAdoo (first team in 1972), Cameron Johnson (first team in 2019) and Harrison Ingram (third team in 2024) as the fourth Tar Heel to make an All-ACC team after transferring in from another school. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 29
Résumé rating: 20
NCAA seed list: T-35
Joey Brackets says …
Wilson’s absence makes a deep run unlikely for this traditional hoops blue blood. Hubert Davis will run the offense through Veesaar, a gifted stretch 4, but it might not be enough. Look for red-hot VCU to take out the Tar Heels in the first round.
Final field rank: 35
Why they will advance
Back-to-back home wins by double-digit margins over Santa Clara and Gonzaga, the WCC’s other tourney teams, put an exclamation point on another successful regular season in Moraga. Led by Lithuanian star Paulius Murauskas, Saint Mary’s plays slowly and deliberately, probing opposing defenses until it finds a good shot.
Why they won’t advance
Saint Mary’s is a great outside shooting team, in part because the Gaels are so discerning about which shots to take — possibly too discerning. Ranking 10th in the nation in 3-point percentage but outside the top 250 in 3-point rate and 2-point shooting percentage means limited scoring chances. In games with eight or more made 3s, Saint Mary’s was 19-0. With seven or fewer makes? Just 7-4.
Did you know?
Saint Mary’s leads the nation in free throw percentage, sinking better than 80% as a team. Murauskas led the WCC in makes and attempts, and Joshua Dent led the conference in accuracy (92%). That duo, along with Mikey Lewis, sank 86% of nearly 400 attempts. Nice weapon for close games in March. — Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 23
Résumé rating: 28
NCAA seed list: 26
Joey Brackets says …
Randy Bennett has had so much success at Saint Mary’s, yet it hasn’t always translated beyond the tournament’s first weekend. The Gaels have had 11 seasons with 25 or more wins since last reaching the tournament’s second weekend. This year continues that trend, as the Gaels have the unfortunate assignment of playing Houston after first knocking off Texas A&M.
Final field rank: 25
Why they will advance
Brad Brownell’s Tigers lost all five starters from a 27-win squad but quickly reloaded through the transfer portal. According to KenPom, they rank 31st nationally in Division I experience, with Brownell adding seniors such as Nick Davidson, Jestin Porter, Butta Johnson and RJ Godfrey. Davidson, Godfrey, Carter Welling and Jake Wahlin make up an extremely imposing frontcourt.
Why they won’t advance
Clemson’s season will end when the team is taken out of its comfort zone. But that’s easier said than done. Clemson finished the regular season allowing just 66.3 points per game, the second-best mark in the ACC. When the Tigers are locked in defensively, they can control tempo, limit possessions and grind their way to victory. It’s a formula that works well in March.
Did you know?
Clemson is the only power-conference school that currently has its all-time winningest coaches leading both its football and men’s basketball programs in Dabo Swinney and Brownell, respectively. Swinney currently has 187 career wins with the football team, and Brownell has 315 victories with the hoops program. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 30
Résumé rating: 30
NCAA seed list: 29
Joey Brackets says …
Clemson has one of the nation’s most underrated X-and-O men in Brownell. The Tigers have won 97 games over the past four seasons, made three trips to the NCAA tournament and seen their second Elite Eight appearance. They won’t be an easy out. It’ll take a tough-minded, well-coached team to oust them — which figures to be Florida in Round 2.
Final field rank: 26
Why they will advance
The Hawkeyes feature Bennett Stirtz, one of the best players most of America still doesn’t know yet. He’ll be a first-round pick in the upcoming NBA draft, but he needs help and Tavion Banks (10.5 PPG) is Iowa’s only other double-digit scorer.
Why they won’t advance
Ben McCollum was hired last spring, so he didn’t have much time to construct a perfect roster. His first Iowa squad is a mixture of ex-Drake players, non-Drake transfers, some Fran McCaffery-era holdovers and high school recruits. But there are roster holes — no true center, lack of a second ball-handling playmaker to complement Stirtz — and they’ve shown up in the team’s losses.
Did you know?
Stirtz earned All-Big Ten honors — voted first team by the league’s media and second team by Big Ten coaches — after following McCollum from Drake. Stirtz finished the regular season averaging 20.2 points, 4.4 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. The Hawkeyes play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball under McCollum, making these gaudy numbers all the more impressive. — Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 28
Résumé rating: 42
NCAA seed list: 36
Joey Brackets says …
Iowa has slumped down the stretch, losing seven of its past 10 contests. Could the Hawkeyes benefit from the rest between their Big Ten tourney loss to Ohio State and the first round of the Big Dance? Probably. But the Hawkeyes face a strong first-round foe in Clemson. It’s more likely a one-and-done trip.
Final field rank: 41
Why they will advance
Bucky Ball exploded in a flash of pace (26th nationally) and points (ninth) in its College Station debut, verifying new coach Bucky McMillan’s reputation as an offensive savant. The Aggies improved their shooting to a 54.2% effective field goal percentage, shooting 36% on 3s and ranking top 50 in turnover rate.
Why they won’t advance
The Aggies are sputtering into the tournament, losing seven of their past 11. When we last saw Texas A&M, Oklahoma was holding Bucky Ball to 63 points in a 20-point blowout. And the résumé is thin as it pertains to beating NCAA tournament teams, with wins over only Georgia and Kentucky. Also potentially troublesome: A&M ranks 335th in points scored on 2-pointers.
Did you know?
McMillan used to be a high school coach in Birmingham! Tune in to A&M’s opening-round game and it’s likely you’ll hear that narrative discussed ad nauseam. But make no mistake, he can coach. The beauty of Bucky Ball lies in balanced depth. A total of 10 Aggies made at least 10 3-pointers this season, and five players averaged double-figure scoring. — Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 35
Résumé rating: 41
NCAA seed list: 40
Joey Brackets says …
Bucky Ball is quite a change in style from the Buzz Williams days of attempting to bludgeon opponents with offensive rebounds, putbacks and free throws. It’s clear the program is heading in a positive direction under McMillan, but a first-round matchup with stingy Saint Mary’s is not what the doctor ordered.
Final field rank: 42
Why they will advance
The Atlantic 10 tournament champions fill the tank of one of college basketball’s most efficient offenses with depth, 3-point accuracy and the ability to get to the foul line at a top-15 rate, per KenPom. Phil Martelli Jr. has the luxury of a 10-man rotation, which makes the Rams a scouting report nightmare and features leading scorer Terrence Hill Jr., a bona fide microwave off the bench.
Why they won’t advance
For as elite as VCU is on offense, its defensive intensity doesn’t always move the needle. The Rams gave up 80-plus points in six of their seven losses on the season. Utah State, NC State and Vanderbilt all shot 38% or better from beyond the arc en route to some nonconference growing pains for Martelli’s squad. The Rams can score with anyone, but their inconsistent engagement on D is a major Achilles’ heel.
Did you know?
This is the 15-year anniversary of VCU’s Final Four team. Those Rams entered the tournament as a First Four participant and became the first squad to springboard from Dayton to college basketball’s biggest stage. The 11th-seeded Rams used Shaka Smart’s Havoc defense to craft five wins in 11 days, taking out the likes of Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas before falling in the national semifinals to Butler. — Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 43
Résumé rating: 37
NCAA seed list: 45
Joey Brackets says …
VCU enters the field as one of the nation’s hottest teams with just one loss since Jan. 10. The Rams have enough depth and scoring punch to win at least one game in this year’s Big Dance. We think they take out North Carolina in the first round before too many defensive miscues deny them a Sweet 16 trip.
Final field rank: 30
Why they will advance
Freshman guard Larry Johnson is the embodiment of this team. The first-team All-Southland selection, like the rest of the Cowboys, does a little bit of everything: He averages 17.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.4 APG and 1.2 steals. As a team, McNeese ranks 85th in the nation in scoring offense with 80.0 PPG while ranking 23rd in scoring defense, allowing just 66.3 PPG.
Why they won’t advance
McNeese does not have a ton of flaws, but its play beyond the arc on both ends could hold it back. The Cowboys allow teams to shoot 32.6% from 3, which ranks 111th in the country. Their 3-point defense isn’t horrendous, but when their aggressive pressure isn’t causing turnovers, it leaves them vulnerable. On the other end, they shoot only 31.4% from distance, ranking 312th nationally. Not a good recipe for pulling an upset in March.
Did you know?
McNeese has a national championship in its history, but not in Division I, II or even III. The Cowboys won the NAIA national championship in 1956. They began competing at the Division I level 16 years later in 1972, and this is their fifth tournament appearance since. — Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: T-48
Résumé rating: 46
NCAA seed list: 47
Joey Brackets says …
McNeese is dancing for the third consecutive year. Last year, the Cowboys showed their mettle, upsetting fifth-seeded Clemson in the first round. But with Will Wade gone and first-time head coach Bill Armstrong at the helm, I don’t expect a repeat of that feat. This year’s team has a lot in common with last year’s, but the offense has slipped just enough to keep it from moving past the first round.
Final field rank: 46
Why they will advance
Thomas Dowd, a first-team All-Sun Belt selection, averages 14.8 PPG and 10.1 rebounds — the latter of which ranks 15th nationally. Dowd’s toughness is emblematic of the whole roster. This is a gritty group that hammers opponents on the glass, ranking 46th in rebounds per game and 99th in rebounding margin.
Why they won’t advance
Troy? Dancing? Two years in a row? This might sound like a fairy tale, but Troy’s offensive inefficiency likely means no Cinderella story. Troy ranks 35th in 3-point attempts but 208th in 3-point percentage (33.5%). The offense disappeared in several bad losses during the Sun Belt season, including vs. Appalachian State and at South Alabama.
Did you know?
By winning this year’s Sun Belt championship, Troy became just the second school in conference history to win back-to-back tournament titles. In the league’s 49-year history, Georgia State is the only other school to cut down the nets two years in a row. — Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 56
Résumé rating: 55
NCAA seed list: 53
Joey Brackets says …
On Nov. 18, Troy scored 89 points in regulation and beat San Diego State 108-107 in an overtime thriller. On Feb 21, the Trojans lost 65-54 to South Alabama. There’s no denying this Troy team can get hot. But it is overly reliant on the 3 and far too inconsistent offensively to sneak past the first round.
Final field rank: 52
Why they will advance
When Fran McCaffery was fired after 15 seasons at Iowa, it seemed his career was over. But then Penn, his alma mater, called and he proceeded to resuscitate a once-proud program and beat Yale in the Ivy League championship game to secure an NCAA bid. The Quakers are led by forward TJ Power, a former five-star recruit who played at Duke and Virginia. He had 44 points and 14 rebounds in the title game.
Why they won’t advance
Despite Power’s credentials, guard Ethan Roberts was the Quakers’ leading scorer (16.9 PPG). Unfortunately, Roberts was unable to play in the Ivy League tournament after suffering a concussion. Penn won without him, but it’s hard to imagine doing it in the NCAAs. His availability will be critical.
Did you know?
McCaffery was born in Philadelphia and played his high school and college basketball there, first at LaSalle High School and then at Penn. He earned the nickname White Magic because of his flamboyant and unselfish style of play. — Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 59
Résumé rating: 56
NCAA seed list: 56
Joey Brackets says …
The Quakers have legitimate stars in Power and, if healthy, Roberts. The problem is, Illinois has stars up and down the lineup. Penn will be extremely challenged to keep up and will eventually fall in its dramatic return to the tournament.
Final field rank: 55
Why they will advance
Idaho is not an easy team to prepare for. Four players average more than 10 PPG: Freshman Jackson Rasmussen and sophomore Kolton Mitchell lead the way just shy of 14 PPG, and seniors Biko Johnson and Isaiah Brickner score just over 12 per game. Brickner went for 23 in the Big Sky championship, and Mitchell tallied 26 the night before. Even for a power-conference team, it won’t be easy to shut down all four.
Why they won’t advance
Idaho is a middle-of-the-road defensive team, giving up 72.9 PPG. Plus, having the 146th-ranked defense against the 165th-toughest schedule according to KenPom is not ideal heading into March. The Vandals also turn the ball over nearly 11 times per game and have an even turnover margin. The Big Dance will be a bit different from the Big Sky, and those types of numbers won’t work against a superior level of opposition.
Did you know?
Idaho entered the Big Sky tournament as the 7-seed and became the first school in conference history to win four straight games for the title. That run has resulted in the school’s first appearance in the Big Dance since 1990. — Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 58
Résumé rating: T-67
NCAA seed list: 60
Joey Brackets says …
Alex Pribble’s Idaho squad is a fun story. Winning four games as the 7-seed in the Big Sky tournament, in its home state, is remarkable. However, that’s where the story ends. There are too many question marks on the defensive end for these Vandals to steal a game.
Final field rank: 63
Why they will advance
The play of do-it-all senior guard Dontae Horne, with a dash of defensive chaos, will likely feature in any success for Prairie View. The first-team All-SWAC selection is averaging 20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. In addition, the Panthers cause the fifth-most turnovers in the country, with an aggressive style of defense that, when working right, gives them extra possessions and the chance for more points.
Why they won’t advance
In addition to playing one of the weakest schedules in the country, the Panthers struggle to rebound the ball. They rank 256th in the nation with just 34 RPG and 324th in rebounding margin. Yes, they give themselves extra possessions by forcing turnovers — but often give them right back by not cleaning up on the glass.
Did you know?
Two-time NBA and three-time ABA all-star Zelmo Beaty attended Prairie View A&M and won an NAIA national championship with the Panthers in 1962. Beaty is often considered to be the greatest player in school history, is one of only two NBA players to come out of Prairie View and was inducted into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 2014. — Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 68
Résumé rating: 68
NCAA seed list: 68
Joey Brackets says …
Prairie View has never won a game in the NCAA tournament, and that is not going to change this year. The Panthers finished eighth in a weak SWAC and played the 348th-worst schedule in the country. They aren’t tested, and they aren’t particularly great on either end of the floor, even for a First Four encounter with Lehigh.
Final field rank: 68
Why they will advance
Just like the last time Lehigh pulled a major upset (Duke in 2012), the Patriot League champs have an elite scorer. Nasir Whitlock produces points in bunches and has already shown a flair for March drama, hitting a buzzer-beater 3 in a Patriot League quarterfinal win. If the slipper fits again for Lehigh, you can bet Whitlock will have had a hand in it.
Why they won’t advance
Per KenPom, Lehigh ranks in the bottom 15 in the country in offensive rebound percentage and the bottom 75 in average height. It’s also susceptible to both size and strength. The Mountain Hawks couldn’t even compete on the glass against Big Ten also-rans Rutgers, ultimately being outrebounded by 16. The road ahead will most likely present an even greater challenge than that early November night in Piscataway.
Did you know?
This marks Lehigh’s fifth appearance in the Big Dance. Notably, the Hawks’ second one came during the 1987-88 season when they were part of the East Coast Conference and still known as the Engineers. They were also then coached by current Penn boss Fran McCaffery, who has now taken five different schools to the tournament: Lehigh, UNC Greensboro, Siena, Iowa and now Penn. — Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 67
Résumé rating: T-67
NCAA seed list: 67
Joey Brackets says …
Lehigh’s run from early February — where it ripped off eight wins in nine games en route to a Patriot League tournament title — is certainly impressive. Its weak nonconference showing suggests the well is about to run dry, but not until after a First Four triumph over Prairie View A&M.
Final field rank: 67
