Gaza power vacuum adds new hurdles to Israel-Hamas ceasefire : NPR

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

For more, let’s turn now to Stephen Farrell. He co-wrote the book “Hamas: The Quest For Power” and was a longtime Middle East correspondent for The Times of London and The New York Times. He now works at the international affairs think tank Chatham House in London. Stéphane, hello.

STEPHEN FARRELL: Hello.

FADEL: Thank you for being here. So, as someone who spent a lot of time reporting on Hamas, talking with Hamas, were you surprised when the ceasefire started and almost immediately, videos started emerging of these executions on the ground, of these shootouts with rival clans?

FARRELL: It’s sad to say no. I would say that this is exactly what happened in the past in Gaza. It was – I think everyone could have predicted that. I did – I’m afraid I don’t expect the ceasefire to go smoothly. I didn’t expect it to be immediate. I didn’t expect it to be complete. Hamas is – it appears that Hamas is ready to step back politically in Gaza and pass the baton to a technocratic group of Palestinians. I think they realize that they cannot rebuild Gaza with the billions of dollars needed. She needs international help.

FADEL: But will it disarm?

FARRELL: But on the gun side, it’s very unlikely he’ll give up guns. There might be a handover ceremony at some point – rocket-propelled grenades, bigger stuff, whatever, so a spectacle, if you will. But for all the members of Hamas’s military wing that I have spoken with over the past two decades, it would be highly unusual for them to lay down their Kalashnikovs, to give them back. A, because they are afraid that Israel will return, and B, because it would make them very vulnerable to other armed groups, to militias and divisions within Hamas, to rival factions within Hamas which could then turn against them.

FADEL: So what does this mean for the future of this agreement? Because it is a key element that Hamas is disarming.

FARRELL: Well, that’s not a key element that Hamas actually agreed to in the part of the agreement with – that was signed about a week ago. I mean, they were very careful not to pick up the pen and sign this. I think the general view is that what’s going to happen is that an international force, an international stabilization force, will come into play. And by international, it’s more likely to be regional rather than international strictly speaking. You know, the Egyptians told us that they and the Jordanians were training Palestinian security forces. The French foreign minister came yesterday and said that the EU mission in Gaza would be to help deploy a Palestinian police force. So I hope – I’m sure that Israel will want an appropriate security force in the buffer zone in Gaza to ensure that we don’t have another October 7th. And certainly, the people of Gaza will want a force there to hopefully ensure that Israeli forces do not return to Gaza in force.

FADEL: But a possible police force does not exist today. I mean, who fills today’s security vacuum? I mean, because Hamas was the governing authority before the war, right? They supervised the police, civil defense. Who is currently filling the security void?

FARRELL: Well, the direct answer to that question is Hamas and it will continue to be Hamas for some time. There are… there are other militias. There are clans. As I said, there may be splinter groups within Hamas. There are other – there were – videos circulating on social media in Arabic showing armed groups in northern Gaza, one of them calling itself the national army, actually setting itself up in opposition. But Hamas ruthlessly and effectively ended Fatah’s presence, Fatah’s armed presence in Gaza during an effective civil war from 2006 to 2007. And I think they probably had enough weapons to ensure that they would control the Palestinian part of Gaza for the foreseeable future.

FADEL: Is this the path Gaza is on now? Another civil war for Hamas to reassert its power?

FARRELL: Well, I talked to someone in Gaza a few days ago. And he was saying that everyone talks about taking weapons away from Hamas, but it’s actually the weapons that are in the hands of many different groups that people are worried about. There is a real fear of civil war.

FADEL: Stephen Farrell works at Chatham House in London. He co-wrote the book “Hamas: The Quest for Power.” Thank you very much for your time and expertise.

FARRELL: Thank you.

(SOUNDBITE OF COLM MAC CON IOMAIRE’S “THE RIVER HOLDS ITS BREATH”)

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