Labor is copping the blame for the US ‘excursion’ in Iran. Can they get Trump out of the driver’s seat? | Peter Lewis

Australians watching fuel prices skyrocket and interest rates skyrocket in the wake of Donald Trump’s “excursion” to Iran are starting to wonder if it’s a trip we really want to take.

Having signed up to an Aukus treaty that promises to ensure long-term national security, the Albanian government has adopted the attitude of a reluctant passenger gripping the seat with white knuckles while the exasperated driver takes corners at high speed.

Although the prime minister quickly endorsed one of the president’s original (and hotly contested) goals, namely the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability, he has since proven reluctant to engage further in this tour of magic and mystery.

According to this week’s Guardian Essential report, this reluctance reflects the national mood, with only a quarter of Australians saying they support the US and Israeli strikes.

These results are hardly surprising given the lack of clarity about the nature of the operation, the constant shifts in justification, and the president’s whiplash-inducing social media diplomacy.

In a separate question, we find that the only Australian action with majority support is to “work with international organizations to contribute to peace talks and prevent further escalation”: in other words, get Trump out of the driver’s seat.

There is little support for other interventions, such as naval support to try to end Iran’s retaliatory blockade, sending weapons to support third countries like the United Arab Emirates, or offering troops on the ground.

If this were the end of the story, the Prime Minister could sit quietly in the back of the bus, wait for global markets to impose guardrails and hope like hell that everyone runs out of gas.

But while much of Trump’s erratic exercise of power was previously a convincing diversion, best viewed from afar, the war on Iran and the regime’s sharply hesitant response by strangling the world’s oil supply are having material impacts on Australians’ pockets.

The economic setback caused by the Trump administration’s miscalculations is having a real impact on the Albanian government’s ability to shape its reform agenda for its second term, when the upcoming budget was supposed to be its time to shine.

Having brought interest rates under control and rebuilt the budget after Covid deficits, Labor was set to unveil a package of tax reforms and social investments in a relatively stable environment.

The degree of difficulty of this maneuver has increased significantly, as the impact of the oil blockade spurs global inflation, fueled by cynical price gouging by the companies that dominate these fragile global supply chains.

Which makes politics even more difficult for Labor, just as many people are prepared to blame the government for its spending, just as they do in the face of these global headwinds. In other words, the government is taking on both the impact and responsibility for Trump’s misadventure.

The Prime Minister has seized on this threat in recent days, saying that “the stable and predictable world of ever-expanding free trade is gone – and it is not coming back any time soon”.

The extent of the current economic shock may yet be determined by how Trump extricates himself from this mess of his own making, but regardless, Australians appear ready to look for a different engine.

Mark Carney’s recent trip to Australia in the days immediately following the strikes on Iran provided a compelling counterpoint to the chaos currently being offered by our greatest ally.

In a carefully reasoned and considered response to American bullying, the Canadian Prime Minister laid out the situation for middle powers like Australia: we must work together to counter the hegemons. In defense, in trade, but also in the development of AI, we must chart a course that recognizes that with the decline of the rules-based international order, the only way to respond to the exercise of raw power is to consolidate it.

This isn’t just about pointing the finger at Trump, which is the natural tendency of many. It’s about building work alternatives so that our leaders don’t feel as trapped by their misadventures.

A final question this week shows an overwhelming appetite for this proposal. Given a choice, Australians want our government to work more closely with other middle powers in an almost 2:1 ratio.

This feeling is particularly strong among Labour, Greens and independent voters, with those who support One Nation most divided, posing a potential problem given the Maga links of the party’s main godmother, Gina Rinehart.

When this “excursion” is over, it will be necessary to determine on a global scale whether the American empire is truly a clear force for good.

If ever there was a time to get behind the wheel, it’s now.

• Peter Lewis is the Executive Director of Essential, a progressive communications and strategic research company which undertook research for the Labor Party in the last election and conducts qualitative research for Guardian Australia. He is the host of Per Capita’s Burning Platforms podcast.