Last-minute NFL Week 17 bets and predictions: Why Eagles and Titans are live underdogs
If you bet favorites on the Christmas Day list, you were basically getting coal in your stocking. All the underdogs were able to stay for the NFL holiday tripleheader despite taking over the backup quarterbacks. Is this a sign of things to come as we continue into Week 17? We certainly hope so, given that some of our best bets for the week include a few underdogs who don’t just cover but pull off the upset.
Since it’s the holiday season, you’ve probably been immersed in parties, giveaways, and various other non-NFL activities. If this makes you feel like you’ve taken your attention off the ball too much to make confident bets this weekend, let this be your late Christmas present. Below you can find our best bets of the week as well as picks for all the other remaining games on the list.
All odds via DraftKings Sports Betting.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubotry for free)
The Bills defense has me concerned about their ability to go far in the playoffs. They haven’t paid for it yet, as they’re 4-0 when giving up 31 or more points this season, but that’s not sustainable, especially against a team like Philadelphia.
This specifically could be a game where Saquon Barkley explodes, continuing his late-season resurgence that includes rushing for at least 120 yards in two of his last three games. Buffalo is giving up 5.4 yards per carry this season, which ranks second highest in the NFL and is behind only the Giants (5.5 yards per carry). For reference, the last time Barkley faced New York, he had 150 yards on just 13 carries in Week 8.
When you pair that mismatch with an improved Jalen Hurts (five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games), Philly should have no problem moving the football. While Josh Allen and James Cook form one of the best one-two punches in the league, the Eagles defense is allowing just 5.0 yards per play this season, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL. This smacks of upheaval.
Projected Score: Eagles 27, Bills 24
The choice: Eagles +1.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubotry for free)
The Bengals offense finally looks like the unit we expected now that it’s fully healthy, and they’re coming off a win in Week 16 against the Dolphins, where they gave up a season-high 45 points. Now they face an Arizona team that has lost seven straight entering Week 17 and is allowing 31.8 points per game since Week 6, the highest mark in the NFL over that span.
This sets the stage for another high-flying offensive day for Joe Burrow’s unit. Even factoring in the shutout loss to the Ravens in Week 15, Cincinnati is averaging 27.7 points per game since Burrow returned from injury in Week 13.
As always with the Bengals, the concern isn’t whether they can score; it’s about whether the defense can push back the opponent enough to achieve victory. Against this Cardinals team, I expect them to hold up their end of the bargain. Over the last three games, the Cardinals offense has averaged just 18.7 points per game. Even if Cincinnati’s defense gives up a tick more than that average, the offense is strong enough to pull out the win and cover the spread.
Projected Score: Bengals 33, Cardinals 23
The choice: Bengals -7.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubotry for free)
Raise your hand, I didn’t think the Jaguars were capable of going to Denver and beating the Broncos. All season long, I’ve been skeptical about how high Jacksonville’s ceiling really is, but it has proven me wrong time and time again. No more. I consider them to be serious players in the AFC and treat them as one of the elite clubs in the conference.
If they can get to Mile High and win, they are more than capable of pulling out a victory at Lucas Oil Stadium by more than a touchdown. Over his last six games, Trevor Lawrence is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, 19 total touchdowns and a 108.7 passer rating. These are all the highest marks in the NFL over that span. Lawrence should be able to beat Philip Rivers, who will play on a short week.
Projected score: Jaguars 27, Colts 20
The choice: Jaguars -5.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)
I talked about it on Monday in my Weekly cover 32 columnsbut it’s worth emphasizing again: Cam Ward is enjoying a breakout in his own right. Over his last three games, he’s 2-1 and Tennessee is averaging 27 points per game, while he’s totaled six touchdowns and just one turnover, giving him a passer rating of 97.9. Even though Tyler Shough was good himself, I think Ward will have a more balanced point of attack in this matchup.
New Orleans’ backfield is struggling so much that Taysom Hill led the team with 12 rushing attempts last week, and the team as a whole dropped back to pass 50 times. This is too unbalanced and creates a one-dimensional attack that is much easier to slow down. On the Tennessee side, Tony Pollard has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, and Ward is getting helpful contributions from his pass catchers like Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears and Elic Ayomannor. Titans are living dogs.
Projected Score: Titans 23, Saints 21
The choice: Titans +2.5
Rest of the group
Texans at Chargers (Saturday)
Projected score: Texans 23, Chargers 21
The choice: Texans +1.5
Ravens at Packers (Saturday)
Projected Score: Packers 24, Ravens 17
The choice: Packers -4.5
Patriots at Jets
Projected score: Patriots 30, Jets 16
The choice: Patriots -13.5
Steelers at Browns
Projected score: Steelers 21, Browns 20
The choice: Browns +3
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Panthers 21
The choice: Panthers +7
Buccaneers among the Dolphins
Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Dolphins 20
The choice: Buccaneers -5.5
Giants at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 23, Giants 17
The choice: Raiders +1.5
Bears at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 30, Bears 24
The choice: 49ers -3
Rams at Falcons (Monday)
Projected score: Rams 30, Falcons 20
The choice: Rams -7.5
