Luka Doncic as a Laker: What we’ve seen a year in and what’s next

A year ago Tuesday, Luka Doncic played his first game with the Los Angeles Lakers, making his debut nine days after ESPN’s Shams Charania broke the shocking news that the Dallas Mavericks had traded their franchise player to Los Angeles.

While the Lakers are still looking for ill-advised decisions after winning the 2020 NBA championship and adding Doncic, the trade has yet to shift the balance of power in the Western Conference.

The Lakers’ 32-20 record is virtually the same as this time last year, when they were 32-19 after winning in Doncic’s debut.

But adding a prime MVP candidate — and just as importantly, having him agree to a three-year extension last summer with Doncic under contract through at least 2027-28 — has already made a dramatic difference in how the Lakers do business. A team that had gone through the duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James represented by Klutch Sports is now built around Doncic’s timeline.

Let’s look back at the first 365 days Doncic spent playing for the Lakers – and see what’s in store for them as they try to get back to the championship.

The production of Leaner Luka

As expected, Doncic’s debut performance was unforgettable. Returning from an absence of more than a month due to a calf strain, he missed 6 of 7 3-point attempts in a win over the lottery-bound Utah Jazz, finishing with 14 points on 5-of-14 shooting. It wasn’t until his fourth game (with the All-Star break in between) that Doncic finally scored at least 20 points in a game as a Laker.

After shaking off the rust, Doncic averaged 28.2 points and 7.5 assists on 44% shooting in 28 games with the Lakers last season. This level of performance, historic for almost all other players, was just a simple level of performance for him. His shooting and playmaking were Doncic’s lowest marks since his rookie campaign.

Following the injury-plagued campaign, with the added motivation of responding to anonymous criticism of his conditioning and commitment from Dallas front office sources, Doncic transformed his physique last summer.

It’s impossible to say exactly how much of that change factored into Doncic’s ability to play in 42 of the Lakers’ first 50 games without missing more than three games before injuring his hamstring Thursday against the Philadelphia 76ers. However, he’s certainly proven to be more durable than Davis, who only played in 29 regular season games with the Mavericks before being traded to the Washington Wizards last week.

So far, Doncic’s improved conditioning hasn’t translated into significantly better performances than his Dallas peak, suggesting that these conditioning issues might have been overstated.

Doncic’s 32.8 points per game this season are virtually identical to his last two full campaigns with the Mavericks, albeit in slightly fewer minutes. (Doncic’s usage rate is 38% this season.) Perhaps the most notable change: Doncic leads the league in free throws made (8.5) and attempted (10.9) per game, surpassing his career average of 10.5 free throws in 2022-23.

Of course, Doncic didn’t really need it improve his production, after finishing third in MVP voting in his final full season with Dallas. During Doncic’s first 365 days with the Lakers, only reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder produced more regular-season wins than the replacement player by my metric than Doncic’s 14.1.

Jump to Doncic timeline

The most intriguing move the Lakers have made since adding Doncic has finally been reversed. Days after Doncic’s deal, the Lakers agreed to send Dalton Knecht, a first-round pick and another trade, to the Charlotte Hornets for center Mark Williams, a 23-year-old lob threat who would have been an ideal pick-and-roll partner for Doncic.

Although the Lakers later called off the trade due to concerns about Williams’ physical condition, the move represented the first indication that they were prioritizing winning during Doncic’s prime over building the best possible team in the twilight of James’ career.

That became clearer in June when the Lakers allowed James to play out the option year of his most recent extension rather than sign him to a new long-term contract. James’ agent, Rich Paul, then told Charania that James wanted to compete for a championship and that he would monitor the team’s moves.

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Stephen A.: The Lakers are average one year after getting Luka

Stephen A. Smith evaluates the Lakers a year after trading for Luka Doncic.

The Lakers’ additions last summer fit the same philosophy as the Williams deal: They replaced veteran 3-and-D wing Dorian Finney-Smith, 32, with Jake LaRavia, who turned 24 in November, and filled their void at center after trading Davis by acquiring Deandre Ayton.

Since canceling the Williams deal, the Lakers have yet to use their remaining first-round picks in a trade.

The bottom line is that any team is unlikely to make a deep playoff run this season. The Lakers are fifth in the West but have the eighth point differential in the conference. The Lakers rank sixth in odds of winning the West at DraftKings. Simulations based on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index help Los Angeles win A playoffs only 25% of the time, making another first-round elimination the extremely likely outcome.

The Lakers are looking at the summer as a time to change their fortunes.

Crucial decisions to come

As good as Doncic was, his acquisition didn’t solve the Lakers’ biggest problem: the lack of role players capable of supporting their stars. This is a problem they have failed to tackle for years. In fact, trading Doncic exacerbated the problem by sending away the best 3-and-D player the Lakers had developed since the 2020 title under guard Max Christie.

The Lakers hope to try again this summer. After trading one expiring contract (Gabe Vincent) for another (Luke Kennard) in their only trade of the season, the Lakers have just three other players besides Doncic under guaranteed contracts for 2026-27: Knecht, LaRavia and reserve forward Jarred Vanderbilt.

If the Lakers let James walk and saw Ayton and veteran guard Marcus Smart exercise the player options, Los Angeles would have more than $50 million in cap space to build around a core of Doncic and unrestricted free agent Austin Reaves. Reaves’ $21 million cap hit will surely be much lower than what he made this summer, meaning the Lakers can spend that space and then go over the cap to re-sign him.

Beyond that, by waiting until the offseason to trade first-round picks, the Lakers will be able to offer up to three first-rounders, unlike the one they had previously. They can trade their 2026 first-round pick as soon as it is made, in addition to their 2031 and 2033 picks.

The way the Mavericks built a Finals team around Doncic and Kyrie Irving should be a model for the Lakers.

Between missing the playoffs in 2023 and winning the West a year later, Dallas drafted one rim-running center in Derek Lively II and acquired another via a trade for Daniel Gafford. The Mavericks also found two defensive-minded forwards, Derrick Jones Jr. (free agency) and PJ Washington (trade), who also provided enough shooting to space the court.

If Dallas is willing to do business again with the Lakers after firing its general manager who made the Doncic trade (Nico Harrison), Gafford and Washington would be reasonable trade targets this summer. So would Mavericks forward Naji Marshall, the team’s replacement after Jones left in free agency following the Finals.

The unrestricted free agent market appears most likely to yield a center, with realistic possibilities going for Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks and Robert Williams III of the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Lakers could also take a chance on guard Keon Ellis, who was traded from the Sacramento Kings to the Cleveland Cavaliers before the deadline. The Cavs’ tax bill might make them reluctant to make a strong offer to Ellis.

Restricted free agency is trickier for a team like the Lakers who can’t afford to wait out the game period, but Denver Nuggets forward Peyton Watson — a Los Angeles-area native who played at UCLA — could be obtained via sign-and-trade due to Denver’s tax situation.

In many ways, the Lakers’ position this summer is similar to the period after they acquired Davis to pair with James in 2019. The Lakers waited to make that move official, saving enough cap space to sign 3-and-D wings Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green along with center JaVale McGee. The Lakers exploited players’ desire to play in Los Angeles to secure several minimum signings, adding Rajon Rondo and bringing back Dwight Howard.

The result was championship-caliber depth that the Lakers sacrificed over the next year in pursuit of more shot creation. Trading for Doncic gave the Lakers a way out of this mess. Now it’s up to them to maximize their opportunities this summer to take advantage of them.