MAGA crackup? Influencers pan Iran war – but base backs Trump, for now.
For a moment, it appeared that President Donald Trump’s bold decision to go to war with Iran would shatter his MAGA base.
Outside criticism was immediately fierce, as the movement’s influencers, including Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Candace Owens, made their opposition clear in the name of “America First.”
This week, Trump’s top counterterrorism official, Joe Kent, resigned over the war and is now under investigation by the FBI. Speculation was rife that his boss and ally, Tulsi Gabbard – director of national intelligence and a longtime opponent of American interventionism – might also resign or be fired. Vice President JD Vance, another anti-interventionist, is also out of step with the president on foreign wars.
Why we wrote this
Polls show President Donald Trump’s war on Iran enjoys strong support among self-identified MAGA voters, despite vocal criticism from some conservative commentators. It is unclear how long the president can maintain this support as war costs and gas prices rise at home.
But a funny thing happened on the road to the MAGA break: It didn’t actually come to fruition — at least, not yet.
Polls show that President Trump, who launched the movement with his 2016 campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” still enjoys the unwavering support of MAGA voters. While a majority of Americans — including a quarter of Republicans — oppose the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, polls show that about 90 percent of voters who identify as MAGA Republicans support it. And their dedication to Mr. Trump is firm, for now.
“The party base trusts Trump’s instincts on most issues, but particularly on foreign affairs,” says Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist.
This does not mean that Mr. Trump can do whatever he wants abroad with impunity. The war in Iran is only just beginning. His election promise of “no forever wars” has deep meaning for his supporters, many of whom view previous U.S. military ventures in Iraq and Afghanistan as costly and unnecessary quagmires.
And while “America First” is not synonymous with isolationism, it does suggest emphasizing domestic priorities and helping American workers economically.
So when Vice President Vance spoke this week at a Michigan manufacturing plant, shortly after Kent resigned, his remarks were closely followed. He appeared to choose his words carefully, dismissing any opposition he might have expressed in the build-up to the US war against Iran that began on February 28. He made it clear that his job was to support the president, regardless of his personal views.
Julia Démarée Nikhinson/AP
“It’s okay to disagree,” Mr. Vance told the crowd. But “once the president makes a decision, it is up to everyone who serves in his administration to make it as successful as possible.”
Ms. Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, also put herself back in front of the president during two congressional hearings this week. In her prepared remarks, she noted that Iran had not resumed uranium enrichment, suggesting there was no urgency about Iran’s nuclear capability. But she ignored this point in her public statement to the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Instead, she emphasized that it is up to the president, as commander in chief, to determine “what does or does not constitute an imminent threat” and act accordingly.
Yet even as Mr. Trump appears to keep his administration aligned with Iran, at least publicly, voter sentiment may be harder to control. The MAGA base makes up about half of Republican voters, and among the general electorate, they represent a distinct minority. A war-induced surge in gas prices, as well as higher inflation generally, could well test the patience of Trump’s core supporters.
Among the electorate as a whole, the war is unpopular and Mr. Trump himself has lost significant support among independents; he now has just 28 percent approval among that group in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. These voters played a key role in his victory in 2024 and will be crucial in the November midterm elections.
The impact of conservative influencers who oppose the war, such as Mr. Carlson and Ms. Kelly, remains a wild card. Their popular podcasts reach millions of people and provide a platform for views that now run counter to Mr. Trump’s message.
Mr. Kent, the recently resigned counterterrorism chief, appeared on Mr. Carlson’s podcast on Wednesday. He argued that an immediate threat to the United States from Iran “simply did not exist” and that Israel had pushed the United States into war. Israel has become a key point of division within both parties, but particularly on the right.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/AP/File
Marc Farinella, a senior advisor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, says most people who aspire to be thought leaders have deeply held beliefs. So it’s no surprise that influencers aren’t as likely to align behind what Donald Trump wants.
Additionally, “there’s a lot of ambiguity about what ‘America First’ actually means, even within the MAGA base,” Mr. Farinella says. This leaves commentators wide latitude to present alternative views, which may well resonate with some voters.
It could also be that in these early days of the Iran war, the polls simply reflect a “rally around the flag” effect, at least among Trump supporters. Over time, this outpouring of support could fade — especially if gas prices remain high and voters find the cost of living increasingly untenable.
This could be the ultimate test of MAGA cohesion.
