Many Latinos who voted Trump aren’t sold on Republicans for 2026 : NPR

A man wearing a “Latinos for America” t-shirt attended a campaign event for republican candidates at the Congress at Drafthouse University in McAllen, Texas, in 2022.

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Support for President Trump and his party is starting to decline among Latin voters.

According to Equis Research, an organization of Latin poll, around a third of the Latinos who supported Trump last year “are not ready to vote for a republican” in the middle of next year.

The Caitlin jury, research director at Eques Research, told NPR that economic questions such as the constantly high prices of the grocery store stimulate many Latin voters, who were essential to elect Trump in November, far from the party.

“The Republicans have failed to hold many campaign promises, in particular on reducing the cost of living,” she said. “And if they want to keep the gains they could have made among Latin voters, they must be sure to keep the promises they made that may have provided them with additional elections.”

Daniel Garza, president of the free initiative – a group that mobilized Latin American voters on economic issues to support conservative candidates, said many Latinos are not satisfied with the current economy.

“Too many of us live a pay check for pay check for us,” he said. “People do not get good jobs, wage growth, inflation checks, affordable health care and housing and quality education.”

But, said Garza, it’s only six months and it is optimistic that most of the Latinos who voted for republican candidates will be patient.

“”[Latinos] Understand that there is a discrepancy, you know, from the previous administration which continues to impact them in a negative way, “he said.” And I think there is patience with this administration for their reforms … and the changes they put in place to take effect. “”

Melissa Morales, the founder and president of Somos Votant and Somos Pac, an organization of mobilization of Latin American voters on the left, said that her group’s survey revealed that pessimism about the economy among Latin voters since Trump took office at this stage.

“More Trump is in office, the most frustrated Latin voters become with its economic policies,” said Morales. “And it becomes a responsibility enormous enough for him.”

It is also a huge responsibility for the Republican Party, in general. Congress control is at stake in the mid-term elections next year. The GOP currently has a very close majority in the House and the Senate is also to be won. Many of these competitive breeds across the country are in areas with important Latin American populations.

Morales warns that Latin voters have less allegiance to particular parties – compared to other voters.

“We have called Latin voters internally the last real swing voters,” said Morales. “We therefore expect to see a certain movement in one way or another.”

Currently, Latinos have a lot of dissatisfaction with the way in which republican legislators manage their most important problem. According to the Somos Votant survey, “a large majority of Hispanic / Latinos voters continue to assess the American economy today as poor (64%), of which almost a third who say that it is very poor (32%).”

The majority of voters (56%) also said they said the economy was only worseing under Trump.

There is also evidence that Trump’s pricing strategy has only increased prices for consumers as they come into force, which, according to Garza, could be a problem for conservatives.

“We fear that there is a gap on inflation with regard to the point of prices. Because in the end, the consumer will pay the prices,” he said. “We’re going to look at that.”

What it means for Democrats

The candidate of the Arizona Democratic Senate, Ruben Gallego, speaks during a “juntos por arizona” (Together for Arizona) to release the rodeo of the vote on November 1, 2024. Gallego won in a state of swing that Trump also won with an important Latin population.

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Rebecca Noble / AFP via Getty Images

This growing dissatisfaction with the Republicans did not directly translate into support for the Democrats.

“What we see here is certainly an increasing cynicism towards the two parties,” said the Caitlin jury of Equis Research, “in particular among some swing voters.”

Jury said that his group had found an increase in the share of people reporting that they did not know which party they will support in the mid -term elections next year – including among “Biden -Defecters”, defined as voters who voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 – as well as Trump voters.

“So these are people who told us that they were ready to vote for a republican when we talked to them earlier this year in May,” she said. “And now they have moved away from the Republican camp and in this bucket either nor the other / undecided. [there is] Movement of Republicans, but not yet entirely towards Democrats. “”

The jury said that if the Democrats wanted to win some of these voters by next year, they “have to offer Latinos a proactive vision” to deal with many of their concerns.

“Latinos really want to see lower costs of the grocery store,” she said. “They want to see lower health care costs. They want to see lower taxes for workers. They really favor the priority to try to find some relief in their daily economic situation.”

However, Garza said he thought that Democrats had a deeper brand problem with Latin American voters. He said that many Latinos do not like the management of the party in recent years,

“Optics, the stories, the real policies that are adopted, are all favorable to the Republicans at this stage,” he said.

Morales said that the disillusionment and dissatisfaction of Latin voters, including among many people who voted Trump, actually gives an important opportunity for Democrats to change course and provide a “radical economic vision”. It could provide an alternative to Trump’s less popular economic policies such as prices and tax reductions promoting billionaires.

“If they can deliver this, if they can do it, I think we will see changes to support the Democrats,” she said. “If they can’t, it will have been a huge missed opportunity.”