Men’s March Madness: Predictions, previews for every Sweet 16 game Friday
The first half of the Elite Eight plays out with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets on Thursday. Who could join them in the 2026 NCAA men’s tournament regional final?
ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their picks for each Sweet 16 game Friday, and break down each team’s keys to advancing.
All times are Eastern.
7:10 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Duke, 73-71
Medcalf’s prediction: Duke, 77-70
How St. John’s can advance to the Elite Eight: Rick Pitino’s game plan against Duke will obviously center around slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John’s has one of the elite defenses in college basketball, but what the Red Storm doesn’t have is the kind of length and athleticism that has troubled Boozer at times. Much of the responsibility will fall on the individual defensive abilities of Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, with the latter likely tasked with chasing Isaiah Evans in the half court.
Offensively, the Red Storm must maintain their improved 3-point shooting. Before the NCAA Tournament, they hadn’t made double-digit 3s in a game since January 10th. They have now done so in both tournament games, including 11 against Kansas.
How Duke can advance to the Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of advantage on each team: Boozer and its defense. When the Blue Devils turned up the pressure defensively against TCU in the second round and started playing through Boozer on the offensive end, they began to dominate the Horned Frogs and completely changed the game. Boozer is the most productive player on the court every time he plays, although Pitino, Hall of Fame coach and Big East Player of the Year Ejiofor hopes to slow him down.
Duke’s defense, the highest-ranked unit in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, has very few weaknesses — but the Red Storm aren’t built ideally to cause the Blue Devils consistent problems. They’ve been shooting the ball better recently, but they’re far from a consistent 3-point shooting team, and they rely heavily on offensive rebounds and free throws. Duke does an incredible job limiting opponents in both areas. –Borzello
7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Michigan, 92-83
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 90-80
How Alabama can advance to the Elite Eight: It’s no secret, but Alabama will need to make a 3-game barrage to have any chance of staying close to Michigan. The Crimson Tide leads the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempts per game and 3-point attempt rate. They made 19 3s in a second-round win over Texas Tech. This needs to continue against Michigan, as it will be extremely difficult to score consistently at the rim against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. Defensively, it will be an uphill battle. Alabama has repeatedly given up huge scoring efforts to good teams, and the Crimson Tide ranks in the middle of the pack in the SEC in defensive efficiency.
This game will have a lot of points and a lot of pace. Alabama won’t back down after a running game against Michigan, and a shootout could play into the Tide’s hands.
How Michigan can advance to the Elite Eight: When Michigan leans to its strengths – its frontcourt, its size and its ability to dominate the paint on both ends of the court – there are few teams in the country capable of competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Mara is a defensive force on the edge and becoming a more consistent option on offense, and Yaxel Lendeborg has shown he can take over games on offense. Alabama doesn’t have the skill or talent up front to match Michigan and doesn’t offer much rim protection, ranking near the bottom of the SEC in block percentage.
The other key for the Wolverines will be whether Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett can slow down Alabama’s star guard Labaron Philon Jr., who had 29 points in the first round and 12 assists in the second round. He is capable of carrying the Crimson Tide. –Borzello
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn, 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to the Elite Eight: Staff confrontations make headlines during the NCAA tournament, but coaching confrontations have just as much, if not more, impact. During a tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo developed an uncanny ability to zero in on an opposing team’s best players and create problems for them. This is the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight.
Izzo’s main mission against UConn is to limit Tarris Reed Jr.’s impact on the game. The Huskies are a different team when he is dominant in the post. If Reed grabs offensive rebounds and gives them plenty of second chance opportunities, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9 percent of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on second chance opportunities with a No. 10 national ranking in offensive rebound rate. It will be key for them to hit more 3s, expand UConn’s defense and create more paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr. & Co. They need to give UConn a reason to guard the perimeter – if the Spartans simply allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and grab rebounds, Michigan State could lose.
Izzo has been in this position before – against better teams – and won. His experience will count in a clash against Dan Hurley.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn will have to come off as the top-notch defensive team that held UCLA to just 39 percent inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins reminded us that they can be a great defensive team when they want to be. In the Big Ten tournament, UCLA produced 132 points per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the round of 16, the Bruins – who played without their leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) – scored only 57 points, their second lowest total of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had nine assists, but also finished 2 of 9 shooting with two turnovers. That’s the same attention UConn will need to give Fears. When he’s comfortable, Michigan State’s offense soars. The Huskies can’t let this happen.
On offense, Braylon Mullins could be an X-factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA but not the historic numbers he put up against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring a combined two points. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside attack, Michigan State will need to find a way to disrupt that, which could give Mullins — who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA Tournament games so far — more freedom and opportunities to play and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.
The Huskies have a plethora of scoring options, and as long as most of them are effective, they can return to the Elite Eight. — Medical calf
10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State, 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State, 74-68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee will have to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That task starts with Felix Okpara, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers and altered other shots, including a late Thijs De Ridder shot that Okpara blocked on Virginia’s comeback attempt. Opposing players had made only 30 percent of their shots around the rim against Okpara before Sunday’s game, according to data from Synergy Sports. He’ll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) – but he won’t have to do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to handle every head-to-head matchup defensively. Flights can keep at each location. They will need to pressure Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he plays, to win. This defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament would be the formula for a trip to Tennessee in the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same plan against Tennessee: move the ball to find the best offensive shot, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on quick blocks. Even though they didn’t have Jefferson, who is a game-time decision due to an ankle injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing with Lipsey — who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and just three turnovers against Kentucky — the Cyclones recorded 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63 percent of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or better.
Gillespie and Ament combined for five turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can pressure this duo to make the same mistakes Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) made for Kentucky, even if Jefferson misses another game. This is how the Cyclones can move forward. — Medical calf
