What can Israel expect in its next war with Iran?

Israel learned attacks of 2024. During the 12 -day war in June, Israel focused on the withdrawal of Iranian missile launchers, and it seems that many of them were destroyed during the war.

On July 17, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced that it had signed a contract to accelerate the acquisition of the Arrow interceptors. The ministry said in a press release that the Arrow system, which was developed and manufactured in cooperation with the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA), “demonstrated significant interception capacities during the swords of the iron war, especially during operation Rising Lion”.

The decision to acquire more interceptors would seem obvious. However, this is part of the much larger series of lessons that were learned during the recent 12 -day war. A month after operation Rising Lion, what technological lessons have learned? What should Israel expect in a future war with Iran?

Iran launched around 550 ballistic missiles in Israel between June 13 and 24. Most of the launches took place at the start of the war. Iran was taken by surprise by the Israeli attack. It seems that Iran had trouble maintaining a volume of missile fire during the 12 -day war.

This contrasts with the two attacks that Iran led to Israel in 2024. Iran targeted Israel with missiles and ballistic drones in April 2024. It also led another mass attack in October using ballistic missiles. These attacks were both planned in advance by Iran. It does not seem to have been a lot of effort to remove Iran’s ability to launch missiles in Israel.

Israel learned attacks of 2024. During the 12 -day war in June, Israel focused on the suppression of Iranian missile launchers, and it is likely that many of them were destroyed during the war. This prevented Iran from launching large -scale attacks with hundreds of missiles simultaneously.

Instead, Iran has been forced to carry out some attacks with launchers who were to be more and more positioned in central or eastern Iran. Israel’s ability to carry out a large number of air outings on Iran and the use of drones as part of the composition of outings, successfully removed threats from Iran.

The fact that about ninety-nine percent of the Iranian drone threat has been intercepted or fails to reach Israel. In Warfare, it is very rare to reach a figure of 99%. For example, for the interceptions of the iron dome, the percentage is generally supposed to be in the 90s, but not at 99%.

The interception rate of Iranian ballistic missiles was not as high; It is estimated at 86%. Some missiles have penetrated Israel’s air defenses with devastating results. Thirty people were killed and thousands of people injured in Iranian attacks.

In essence, war has taught Israel that forty years of air defense investments have borne fruit. The Arrow program has its origins in the 1980s. The Scud threat, which saw Saddam Hussein launch Scud missiles in Israel in the 1991 Gulf War, has shown that Israel needed air defenses.

The Patriot made in the United States at the time was not enough, and he was also demonstrated later not to have performed well in 1991. It showed that the United States, Israel and the West had a lot to learn. Fortunately for Israel, there were no more Saddam Hussein type diets in the 1990s which posed such a threat. Israel had time to work on technologies to defend the country.

The second intifada has a little distracted Israel from this course because Israel had to face an insurrection in the West Bank and Gaza. The 2006 war with Hezbollah showed that Israel really needed to play in terms of improving its air defenses. The result was the iron dome system. A decade later, David’s Sling, a medium -range interceptor, then Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 were ready to see the action.

David and Arrow’s slingue turned out to be in the War of Iron Swords which started with the attack on Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023 and in Rising Lion. Advanced Rafael’s defense systems of Israel produce the sling of David and Iron Dome, and Israel Aerospace Industries produces an arrow.

Air defense technology is not the only thing Israel has seen the recent war succeed. The Air Force of Israel also played phenomenally in the war with Iran. However, all technologies are not known, however, some details have been revealed.

Israel’s attacks on Iran have used Iran -made systems

Israel’s Channel 12 Nuded that “The Air Force Carried Out Dozens of Attacks on Nuclear Facilitities in Iran and the Capital of the Islamic Republic, Tehran. TODAY (Wednesday, July 16), It can be revealed that During the Attacks by the Air Force Aircraft in Iran, the Aircraft Were Equipped with ‘Self-Defense Suites’ Manufactured by Elbit Systems, which constituted an Additional and Critical Layer of Protection Against Threats to Israeli Fighter Jets, which has recorded unprecedented success.

Israel had a lot of time to help out and learn what worked and did not work in the 12 -day battle. First of all, Israel had to face the attack on Hamas on October 7 and the following war. This war has dragged out and is above all an exhausting terrestrial war with the aid of tanks and infantry. While certain new technologies have been deployed in Gaza, they are designed to deal with insurgent threats.

Where Israel was able to learn how the Iranian challenge could take place, it was in war with the Houthis and Hezbollah. Israel has carried out about half a dozen major air raids on the Houthis. These were long -range strikes over more than 2,000 km. This meant that Israel used drones, various types of F-16, F-15 and F-35, as well as supplies in strikes.

Israel also carried out long -range strikes on Iran in October 2024 in response to the Iranian attack. In addition, Israel has successfully removed a large volume of missiles by Hezbollah, in part by destroying rocket and missile stocks, and also by hitting the command and control of Hezbollah.

A major lesson in the conflict with Iran is that the Iranian military model is not as relevant as it seems. Iran has prompted to arm its proxies in the region. The proxies are dangerous and have glued other countries, such as Saudi Arabia. Iran also launched a direct attack on Saudi Arabia using drones and cruising missiles in 2019. It was a relief from curtains in Iran’s mode of war.

Militias supported by Iran in Iraq also attacked American forces with drones and rockets. Iran may have improved its drones and missiles over time, but its arsenal is vulnerable to defeat. Iranian drones, mainly the Shahed 136, were exported to Russia for use against Ukraine, for example.

However, Ukrainians have shown that the threat of the drone can be mainly neutralized. This does not mean that they have reached the 99% interception rate that Israel has apparently reached; However, Kyiv managed to stop many drones.

Iranian drone and missile technology may have reached a summit in this war. Iran will continue to try to make the missiles more precise and increase their scope or characteristics; However, the missiles proved to be a false hope for Tehran. Iran boasted in the past to develop “hypersonic” missiles.

Most ballistic missiles reach hypersonic speeds due to their trajectory; However, this does not mean that they have the capacity to maneuver. It is the maneuvering element of the “hypersonic” threat that matters most. Iran likes to talk about its achievements, but its missiles and drones continue to show signs of vulnerability.

Missiles and drones do not win wars either. The Nazis developed the first ballistic missile widely produced in the world during the Second World War. It was the V-2. They also developed the first version of a type of cruise missile, called V-1. The two systems terrorized the United Kingdom but did not win the war for Germany. Saddam’s experience with Scuds should serve as a edifying story for the regimes that trust this technology. He’s not the game changer he seems to be.

The Iran regime includes many intelligent people, and will want to create new threats to Israel. They continue to circulate weapons towards the Houthis, as revealed by a recent expedition that has been seized. The shipment included engines for drones and a wide variety of technologies for drones and missiles.

Obviously, Iran has not learned its lesson. He will continue to follow the path of missiles and drones because he does not have much else to invest. Israel should be wary of asymmetrical threats from Iran, such as plots abroad. However, Iranian conventional forces will have to rethink their defense technology in any turn of the future.