Millions of buildings at risk from sea level rise, analysis finds

The increase in sea level could put more than 100 million buildings in the world in the world in danger of regular flood if the emissions of fossil fuels are not driven rapidly, according to a new study led by McGill published in Urban Sustainability of the NPJ.

Research provides the first large-scale assessment and building by building the impact of long-term sea level elevation on coastal infrastructure in Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America. The team used detailed satellite cards and elevation data to estimate the number of flooded buildings at different levels of sea level elevation on multi-secles time ladders.

“The elevation of sea level is a slow but unstoppable consequence of warming which already has an impact on coastal populations and will continue for centuries,” said Professor Natalya Gomez, co-author of the study and research chair of Canada in the interactions of glacial-man cap at McGill University. “People often talk about the rise in sea level by dozens of centimeters, or perhaps a meter, but in fact, it could continue to increase over several meters if we do not stop burning fossil fuels quickly.”

Millions of risk buildings, even in the best of cases

The study examined the scenarios between 0.5 and 20 meters of the elevation of sea level. He found that with an increase of only 0.5 meters, a level planned to occur even under ambitious emission cuts, around three million buildings could be flooded. In scenarios with five or more, as you could expect in a few hundred years if the emissions do not end soon, the exhibition increases sharply, with more than 100 million buildings in danger.

Many of these buildings are in densely populated and low areas, which means that whole districts and critical infrastructure, including ports, refineries and cultural heritage sites, would be assigned.

“We were surprised by the large number of buildings at risk of the long-term sea level elevation,” said Professor Jeff Cardin, co-author and professor at McGill University. “Some coastal countries are much more exposed than others, due to the details of the coastal topography and the locations of the buildings.”

Critical information for urban planners, decision -makers, communities

Researchers argue that these results provide essential information to urban planners, decision -makers and communities who work to prepare for an inevitable increase in sea level.

“Each of us will be affected by climate change and the elevation of sea level, whether or not we lived by the ocean,” said Eric Galbraith, another teacher involved in McGill’s study. “We are all counting on goods, foods and fuels that cross coastal ports and infrastructure exposed to sea level elevation. The disruption of this essential infrastructure could wreak havoc with our economy and our dietary system interconnected worldwide.”

The interactive study of the study, accessible to the public via Google Earth Engine, allows decision -makers to view which regions face the largest exhibition. These data can shed light on climate adaptation strategies such as building protective infrastructure, adjustment of land use planning or, in some cases, retirement managed.

“There is no exhaust at least a moderate quantity of sea level elevation,” said Maya Willard-Stepan, the main author who conducted the study as part of a undergraduate research project. “Coastal communities earlier can start planning it, the more likely they are to continue to flourish.”