News Analysis: With Gaza deal, praise and peril for Trump
WASHINGTON- At a time when hope for peace seemed lost, senior U.S. officials, led by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in 2012, which would be touted for years as a historic diplomatic achievement. She would later campaign on her strategic prowess for the presidency against Donald Trump.
In 2014, a similar ceasefire was negotiated between the two sides in yet another war by Clinton’s successor, John Kerry, also considered a diplomatic coup at the time. But in the first 72 hours of this ceasefire, with no clarity on the precise lines of an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Hamas members ambushed an Israel Defense Forces patrol that was dismantling a tunnel, casting doubt on peace. The remains of the Israeli soldier captured during this raid have been held by Hamas ever since.
History shows that Trump’s success this week in brokering a new truce between Israel and Hamas after their most devastating war to date is fraught with opportunity and peril for the president.
A lasting ceasefire could cement his legacy as a peacemaker, long sought by Trump, who exploited President Nixon’s crazy theory of diplomacy to coerce several other warring parties into ceasefires and settlements. But the record of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict shows that continued interest and commitment on the part of the president may be necessary to ensure peace is maintained.
Hamas and Israel agreed on Wednesday to implement the first phase of Trump’s proposed 20-point peace plan, exchanging all remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, in exchange for 1,700 detainees from Gaza, as well as 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israel.
Only the first phase has been agreed so far.
The guns are expected to fall silent on Friday, followed by a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces that would initially leave about half of the Gaza Strip – along its border periphery with Israel – under Israeli military control. A 72-hour clock would then begin once the partial withdrawal is complete, counting down until the hostages are released.
Achieving this alone constitutes a significant victory for Trump, who leveraged the deep ties he built with his Arab partners during his first administration and his political influence within the Israeli right and with his Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to secure the deal.
The president’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, had been working toward a ceasefire for months, beginning during the presidential transition period nearly a year ago. He had little success on his own.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio writes a memo before delivering it to President Trump during a meeting at the White House on Wednesday.
(Evan Vucci / Associated Press)
It was Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law who designed the Abraham Accords during Trump’s first term and who has close ties to Netanyahu and Arab governments, and who played an unofficial but active role in a recent diplomatic initiative that helped reach a deal, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter.
“None of this would have happened without Jared,” the source said.
Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump scored a victory on the truce, claiming credit not only for a hostage deal and ceasefire but also for the historic achievement of broader peace in the Middle East.
“We ended the war in Gaza and truly, on a much broader basis, created peace. And I think it will be a lasting peace – I hope an everlasting peace. Peace in the Middle East,” Trump said.
“We have secured the release of all the remaining hostages,” he added. “And they should be released Monday or Tuesday. Getting them is a complicated process. I’d rather not tell you what they have to do to get them. They’re in places you don’t want to be.”
An opening has arisen for a diplomatic breakthrough after Israel carried out an extraordinary strike against a Hamas target in Doha, shaking the confidence of the Qatari government, a key US ally. While Doha has hosted Hamas political leaders for years, Qatar’s leaders believed their relationship with Washington would protect them from Israeli violations of its territory.
Trump was seeking a deal with Qatar, a U.S. official said, that would guarantee them security guarantees in exchange for leading Hamas in a hostage deal. Separately, Egypt — which has intelligence and supply capabilities in Gaza considered by the U.S. government to be second only to those of Israel — agreed to apply similar pressure, the official said.
“There is an argument here that the Qataris are arguably making to Hamas, which is that they have lost, this round anyway, and it will take them a very long time to rebuild. But the war has to end before the rebuilding can begin,” said Elliott Abrams, a veteran diplomat in the Reagan, George W. Bush and first Trump administrations.
“On Friday the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced, and he won’t get it,” Abrams said, adding that if the deal fails, “I think the Israelis are going to tell him, ‘It’s a game. They haven’t really accepted your plan.'”
“I don’t think in the end he will blame the Israelis for ruining the deal,” Abrams continued. “I think he will blame Hamas.”
