MLB Best Home Run Bets 7/24
Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) +475, BetMGM
Soderstrom is usually a solid play against right-handed pitchers according to the model, and that’s the case again today. He’s hit 17 of his 18 home runs this season off righties. He faced Jason Alexander (the pitcher, not George Costanza) about a month ago and, while he didn’t record a hit, he put the ball in play all three at-bats—including a 110 mph exit velocity in his final plate appearance. Although Alexander hasn’t pitched much in the majors this season, he’s allowing a .988 OPS against left-handed hitters. We set Soderstrom’s line around +350 to homer.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) +525, BetMGM
Tatis surprisingly has not faced Sonny Gray in his career, but we see good longshot value here. Tatis is beyond due—he hasn’t homered in his last 10 games and has just one in his last 24. Despite the drought, he still has 16 home runs on the season, so the power is there. Gray gave up 8 earned runs in just 3.1 innings in his last start, and right-handed bats have a .276 average and .771 OPS against him this season. This could be a great spot for Tatis to break out. We set his line at +412 to homer.
José Altuve (HOU +675, BetMGM
Altuve has seen Luis Severino plenty in his career, going 13-for-43 with 1 home run. He’s swinging a hot bat right now, with 4 multi-hit games in his last 7. Altuve has also been much better at home this season, hitting .316 with 10 home runs in 51 home games. The +675 line on BetMGM is excellent value, especially considering other books have him closer to +475. We set Altuve’s line at +550 to homer today.
