Overshooting 1.5C climate target ‘inevitable’: UN chief

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday it was now clear that efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would fail in the short term.

On the eve of next month’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil, Guterres said exceeding 1.5°C would lead to “devastating” but predictable impacts.

“One thing is already clear: we will not be able to contain global warming below 1.5 degrees in the coming years,” Guterres told the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) weather and climate agency in Geneva.

“Exceeding is now inevitable. Which means that we will experience a period, more or less, with a more or less high intensity, greater than 1.5 degrees in the years to come.”

However, if there is a “paradigm shift” and leaders take the problem seriously by moving towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions, “1.5 is still – according to all the scientists I have met – possible before the end of the century”.

The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) – and 1.5°C if possible.

Scientists stress the importance of containing global warming, because every fraction of a degree of increase further increases risks such as heat waves or the destruction of marine life.

Containing warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would considerably limit its most catastrophic consequences, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which brings together the work of scientists from around the world.

Fighting climate misinformation

On the eve of the COP30 summit next month in Brazil, Guterres also stressed the need to “fight disinformation, online harassment and greenwashing”.

“Scientists and researchers should never fear telling the truth.”

His remarks will be seen by some as a riposte to Trump’s speech at the United Nations in New York, in which the Republican president defended fossil fuels and derided green technology.

“Climate change is, in my opinion, the greatest scam ever perpetrated in the world,” Trump said.

“The carbon footprint is a hoax invented by people with bad intentions,” he said.

“By the way, we’re getting rid of falsely named renewables: it’s a joke, they don’t work, they’re too expensive,” he added, of his administration’s war on solar and wind power, supported by a new law that ends tax credits for clean energy.

The planet on the “verge of the abyss”

But Guterres insisted that by 2024, “almost all new electricity capacity would come from renewables” and that investment was increasing.

“Renewable energies are the cheapest, fastest and smartest new energy source. They represent the only credible path to ending the incessant destruction of our climate,” he insisted.

WMO celebrates its 75th anniversary this year and is leading the battle to ensure that all countries are covered by early warning systems for extreme weather conditions by 2027.

“Global warming is pushing our planet to the brink,” Guterres said.

“Each of the last ten years has been the hottest in history. Ocean heat is breaking records while decimating ecosystems. And no country is safe from fires, floods, storms and heat waves.”

Ahead of COP30, the UN Secretary-General urged countries to “propose bold new national climate action plans that align with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.

He said these measures must include commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, adding: “Much greater ambition is needed.”

© 2025 AFP