Did the U.S. Really Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?

Did the United States really destroy Iran’s nuclear program?

By Davide Castelvecchi & Nature Magazine

Many in the world woke up on June 22 that the United States had bombed nuclear sites in Iran, in order to destroy the country’s ability to produce nuclear weapons. The raids targeted the installations of uranium-enrichment of Iran in Fordow and Natanz, and at its nuclear research center in Isfahan, using stealthy bombers to abandon “ bunker-buses ” massive and cruise missiles.

Although Iran claims that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, experts have long assessed that Iran was about to have the capacity to constitute nuclear weapons if it chooses it. American attacks have followed a bombing campaign by Israel, which has since led new attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. On June 23, International Atomic Energy Agency said that “very important damage should have taken place” on the Ford-Fordow site.

Researchers from university establishments and reflection groups also assess the potential impacts of attacks on Iran’s nuclear capacities. Analysts said the attacks have probably made the nuclear program back up considerably, but not permanently. In particular, Iran could have moved highly enriched uranium stocks, and perhaps certain centrifuges of enrichment, elsewhere. David Albright, specialist in nuclear policy and president of the Institute of International Science and Security in Washington DC, spoke to Nature about what researchers know.

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How do you assess the impact of bombing on Iran’s nuclear capacities?

There are not many researchers who are able to assess the impact of bombings. We have decades of experience with the Iranian nuclear program, so we know their facilities and activities very well. And we have excellent access to satellite imaging – that we have to buy. We try to buy them every day. And we use analysts who have decades of experience to analyze these images. We also have a lot of contacts with governments, and we have colleagues who also have contacts with governments.

A lot of damage is on the surface, so it is a question of knowing what the building has done [in terms of its role in the nuclear program]. We are counting on our information repository on the attacked sites. So it’s quite simple.

Obviously, more problematic is the underground sites. When we initially evaluated the bombing of Israel of Natanz, three days later, I saw a very small crater above the underground room. I could train and connect it to a type of weapon to the Earth penetrator that Israel is known. He would leave a very small crater when he entered, and the damage would be underground. The United States has bombed him with a much more powerful earth penetrator. Damage is therefore probably more extensive.

How and when will we know with certainty the extent of the damage?

As nuclear experts, we would like to see it done with diplomatic agreements, where Iran would authorize intrusive inspections in its program. If this does not happen, it is the work of us and Israeli information to assess the damage. They look at the interceptions of communications or try to recruit people inside to reveal information.

Would there be radioactive materials detected outside of Natanz, Esfahan and Fordwow if the attacks succeeded?

Until now, the AIEA has not brought in any leaks of this type. And it seems that Iran had moved uranium stocks enriched in the days preceding the attacks. The United States said that the objective of its attacks was the facilities, so it understands that it does not get nuclear matter.

Can shock waves damage enrichment installations even without direct blows?

Shock waves can cause a lot of damage. They will push against centrifugal, and if they turn, it can crash the rotor inside the wall. It is whoever guesses how destroyed without additional information. But the idea of ​​American bombing was that Israel may not have done enough damage.

Would this present more serious environmental risks if the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran was bombed?

Israel said he would not attack nuclear reactors. And Israel negotiated with Russia so as not to attack the Russians who operate Bushehr. But yes, it could really be disastrous. Uranium fission disintegration products that accumulate inside a reactor are much more dangerous than uranium itself. This is why you do not want to have a nuclear reactor involved in a war.

This article is reproduced with permission and was first publication June 23, 2025.