MLB insiders predict free agent deals for Tucker, Schwarber

We have collected projections for the most anticipated free agents of the last three seasons: it is first judge Aaron, then Shohei Ohtani, then Juan Soto (with an update in October).

Although there is not a massive free agent who should beat discs this winter like Ohtani and Soto, there are two players who intrigue for different reasons and who also have the same first name: Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker.

From a point of view, Tucker experienced a solid year of walking, displaying 4.7 war with his offensive number just a tick of the year of last year’s career, but underlying measures close to his best seasons. On the other hand, Tucker had a truly rough race in August, reaching. 148 / .233 / .148 (16 WRC +) on 15 games (61 plaques appearances) from August 1 to August 18. That said, he was tied in the fifth row of baseball in war at the end of June, and he remains in the Top 20.

The Schwarber season is less complicated. The Slugger of Philadelphia Phillies posted career records in most offensive categories, including its 50 circuits, 123 products produced and 4.5 war. The only negatives for its prospects on the free agency are that Schwarber will have 33 years old in March and only played 13 games on the field in the past two seasons. The strikers designated until the thirties did not succeed in a free agency, but none of them had struck 50 circuits during their walking year, so Schwarber is in an unexplored territory.

How much could he get each of the Kyles this winter? We interviewed 20 scouts, executives and agents to discover it.

Kyle Tucker

How much could Tucker get?

Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in levels by a total of dollars.

Less than $ 350 million (6): 11 years / 308 million dollars, 9 years / 315 million dollars (2x), 8 years / 320 million dollars, 9 years / 340 million dollars, 9 years / 342 million dollars

$ 350 – $ 399 million (4): 8 years / 352 million dollars, 10 years / 375 million dollars, 12 years / 375 million dollars, 11 years / 380 million dollars

400 to 499 million dollars (8): 10 years / 400 million dollars, 11 years / 400 million dollars, 11 years / 418 million dollars, 10 years / 420 million dollars (2x), 10 years / 425 million dollars, 12 years / 425 million dollars, 10 years / 450 million dollars

At least $ 500 million (2): 10 years / 500 million dollars, 12 years / 550 million dollars

The average of the 20 projections is 10.1 years, $ 391.5 million, for an average annual value of $ 38.8 million (AAV).

The median projection of these transactions is $ 390 million.

What are the closest?

The remarkable performance of Tucker (five consecutive seasons of 4-5 FWAR and five consecutive performances of 30% better than the average of the League) makes it difficult to search for a recent comparison of free agents. It is 10th in war baseball in the past five seasons.

During the last four free agent lessons, players of $ 150 million + are not very suitable for a comp. The $ 765 million agreement in Soto and the $ 700 million Ohtani agreement is not useful. The Willy Adames, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, inby Swanson, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are very different, although Seager is not a terrible comp. Freddie Freeman was three years older than Tucker as a free agent and Aaron Judge was two years older, while leaving a war season of 11.1 with 62 circuits, so none seems relevant. Kris Bryant was already down when he struck a free agency, while Brandon Nimmo was in the process of looking but had years of sustainability.

The April $ 500 million extension of Vladimir Jr. with the Blue Jays de Toronto is the composition that continued to find those we interviewed. Vlad’s extension starts next year for his 27 -year -old season, while Tucker will be 29 years old. It’s only two years, but it is very important for two years to project the value in a long -term agreement. Tucker has more base and position value, but it is always an angle outfall. Guerrero’s extension was signed outside a competitive call for tenders, the perception being that the Jays paid a little more than the market would not support to enclose its franchise player after a last place in the American League East last season and with another basic player Bo Bichette still signed.

Who are Tucker’s potential contenders?

There was little confidence on the part of those questioned (none of whom worked for Cubs) about Cubs winning an auction war for Tucker. Los Angeles Dodgers, longtime fans of Tucker, have been mentioned by a number of industry initiates. We have not asked questions about a projected team, so the coming dodgers often seem indicative of a feeling in the industry that they are the team to beat.

By putting all these pieces together, you can see why a contingent of the industry thinks that Tucker will land somewhere around the extension of Guerrero, some think that it will eventually approach $ 300 million, but most have about $ 400 million, give or take, which is also the place where Jeff Passan sources have led it.

Kyle Schwarber

How much could Schwarber get?

Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in levels by a total of dollars.

Less than $ 100 million (2): $ 4 /72 million, $ 3 /90 million

$ 100 – $ 125 million (11): 3 years / 100 million dollars, 4 years / 100 million dollars, 4 years / 110 million dollars (2x), 4 years / 112 million dollars (3x), 5 years / 118 million dollars, 4 years / 120 million dollars (2x), 3 years / 125 million dollars

126 to $ 180 million (5): 4 years / 140 million dollars, 6 years / 150 million dollars, 4 years / 160 million dollars, 5 years / 160 million dollars, 4 years / 180 million dollars

At least $ 200 million (2): 6 years old. $ 200 million, 7 years / 245 million dollars

The average of 20 projections is 4.3 years, $ 131.8 million, for an average annual value of $ 30.7 million (AAV).

The median projection of these transactions is $ 119 million.

What are the closest?

A handful of composers appear for Schwarber:

JD Martinez: Five years, $ 110 million in its 30 -year season in 2018 (45 hours, 4.3 years of war march)

Paul Goldschmidt: Five years, $ 130 million in his age of 32 in 2020 (33 hours, 4.6 War in the year of walking)

Free man: Six years, $ 162 million in his 32 -year -old season in 2022 (31 hours, 4.7 War in the year of walking)

Compos mathematics discussed that Schwarber should get a year less than the shortest agreement because of its age (therefore, four years) and land in the average annual value area of ​​25 to 30 million dollars (AAV), which is just where those interviewed have been found.

Who are Schwarber’s potential contenders?

Conversely, the situation of Tucker / Cubs, many of the interviewees think that there are a good chance that the phillies act quickly after the end of the season to bring Schwarber back. Be that as it may, it seems to be a target for a rivalic team that seeks to strengthen the middle of its short-term range, and, let’s hope, not to have an albatrossess on its big book at the end of the agreement.

All these teams would be aware of the figures of the luxury tax, and a rival agent spoke of an interesting wrinkle that he expects to see: Schwarber will obtain this fifth year, for a little more money, to obtain the AAV.

A number of teams should be interested in this low -turn area, as predictions suggest, but there could possibly be a landing point closer to $ 150 million with enough competitive offers. That said, some teams just can’t endure this kind of money for an older DH.