NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, odds, props: 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks from model that nailed 25 winners
Shane van Gisbergen cemented his status as the best road racer in the NASCAR Cup Series with a win last week in Chicago and now he’ll get another chance at a road course on Sunday in the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. The 36-year-old from New Zealand is the +140 favorite in the NASCAR at Sonoma odds and will be seeking his third road win of the season and fourth of his career this weekend. However, it’s Kyle Larson who is the defending champion at Sonoma and he’s won two of the last four races there. He’s listed at +600 in the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds.
The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET and the race is scheduled for 110 laps around the 12-turn, 1.99-mile circuit used for NASCAR. Before entering any 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Sonoma predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure’s model began the 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott’s win in the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray for a +300 payout. Then it went on to predict Kyle Larson in Miami (+350), Christopher Bell’s NASCAR All-Star Race win (+600), Denny Hamlin’s win in Michigan (+650), Shane van Gisbergen’s win in Mexico City (+330), Elliott’s win in Atlanta (+1500) and van Gisbergen again in Chicago (+150).
All told, the model has nailed seven winners this year and a whopping 25 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns. New users also have the opportunity to take advantage of the latest Bet365 promo code, FanDuel promo code and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Now, the model simulated the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.
Top 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 predictions
For Sunday’s 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350, the model is high on Christopher Bell, even though he’s a +1800 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Sonoma odds from BetMGM. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday and first-time users can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code.
He’s slipped to sixth in the NASCAR standings, but he’s still one of only three racers this season with three wins after going to victory lane three weeks in a row early in the season. He’s also piled up four other top-three finishes in 2025, so he’s regularly put himself in contention late.
That includes a second-place finish in Mexico City after starting all the way back in 31st position and a victory on a road course in Austin where he clawed his way to the front from 19th on the grid. Bell has recorded top-10 finishes in each of the last two seasons at Sonoma and the model likes his chances of working his way to the front on Sunday.
The model has also revealed a shocking NASCAR prop for Sunday after nailing an AJ Allmendinger top 10 prop (+120) last week: Ty Gibbs finishes top five for a +200 payout at Caesars. He’s potentially a strong value pick for your Sonoma NASCAR prop bets.
The 22-year-old is having a tough season, but he is coming off a strong second-place finish in the Chicago Street Race to build a little momentum. He’s 19th in the standings and has a 66-point deficit to make up in order to catch bubble boy Bubba Wallace. In addition to his strong showing in Chicago, Gibbs led 27 laps in Mexico City before finishing 11th. He has five career top-five finishes on road course and street courses. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Sonoma picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with Sonoma NASCAR odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Chicago Street Race projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 24 winners, and find out.
2025 NASCAR Sonoma odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Sonoma picks at SportsLine
(odds subject to change)
Shane Van Gisbergen +140
Kyle Larson +600
Michael McDowell +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Tyler Reddick +1400
Ty Gibbs +1400
Chris Buescher +1400
William Byron +1800
Christopher Bell +1800
AJ Allmendinger +2200
Kyle Busch +2700
Ross Chastain +3000
Ryan Blaney +3400
Chase Briscoe +3700
Alex Bowman +3700
Daniel Suarez +5500
Ryan Preece +5500
Carson Hocevar +5500
Joey Logano +5500
Denny Hamlin +6000
Austin Cindric +7500
Bubba Wallace +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
John Hunter Nemechek +15000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Noah Gragson +25000
Zane Smith +25000
Cole Custer +30000
Justin Haley +30000
Erik Jones +36000
Katherine Legge +42000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +42000
Cody Ware +42000
Ty Dillon +42000
Austin Dillon +42000
Riley Herbst +42000
Josh Berry +42000
