Measles’ resurgence in the US is a grim sign of what’s coming
Over the three decades from 1993 to 2024, measles in the United States, it was relatively rare – a few hundred cases per year at most. But suddenly the disease has become so ingrained in American life that it sometimes doesn’t make headlines when a new outbreak breaks out.
By March 2026, measles had been circulating continuously in the United States for over a year, beginning with a epidemic in Texas which lasted from January to August 2025. Before this epidemic has been declared overA outbreak in Utah And Arizona border began in August and is continuing. An epidemic in South Carolina started in September, increased significantly in January 2026 and is continuing.
Thirty states have recorded measles cases this year; 47 cases have been reported since the start of 2025. Health officials across the United States have 1,300 infections confirmed already this year since March 6, putting the country on track to surpass the 2025 figures, which were the highest in 35 years.
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We study epidemic preparedness and response has Brown University Pandemic Centerand we view the return of measles to the United States as a grim signal of what is to come.
Low vaccination levels across the country mean measles outbreaks will continue to occur, needlessly hospitalizing and killing unvaccinated people. But beyond this damage, the resurgence of the disease poses a serious warning about the country’s ability to manage infectious disease threats of all kinds.
An eliminated disease returns
The return of measles is not a mystery: the drop in the vaccination rate is the cause.
Approximately 90% of the American population has received the The MMR vaccine, which protects against measles, mumps and rubellaand in certain regions of the country, the rate is less than 60%. Since around 2019-2020, this overall figure has fallen below the 95% needed to herd immunity. Maintaining this rate nationally is necessary, but maintaining herd immunity locally is equally important to prevent measles from affecting pockets of unvaccinated communities.
The countries which remain free from continued transmission for 12 months are deemed to have eliminated measles – a designation obtained by the United States in 2000. The Pan American Health Organization was expected to make a decision in April whether the United States should lose this designationbut the organization postponed its meeting until November.
Current trends suggest that the United States and Mexico, which are also battling the disease, could lose this status – as shown Canada did it in November 2025. All three countries saw their vaccination rates fall below the 95% thresholdand their epidemics may share epidemiological links.
Look on it
A serious long-term threat to the health of the United States
By any measure, the ongoing measles outbreaks in the United States signal that the disease has reemerged in ways that will have serious adverse health consequences. In 2025, three people died of measles In the United States, that’s more than any year since the disease was eliminated 25 years ago.
Of the 2,283 confirmed cases of measles in the country in 2025, 11% were sick enough to be hospitalized. In South Carolina, where most cases of measles were reported in 2026, hospitals do not have to report patients admitted due to measles-related complications, so the actual number of measles hospitalizations could be much higher.
People who recover from measles may experience complications such as pneumoniawhich may result in death, or encephalitiswhich can later lead to deafness or intellectual disability due to brain swelling. The virus can also affect the immune systemwhich makes people more vulnerable to other long-term infections, even ones they’ve had before.
In rare cases – although more likely if a person is infected as a child – measles patients can develop a progressive dementia called subacute sclerosing panencephalitisor SSPE, between two and ten years after their infection. SSPE always leads to death. Last year, a School-age child dies in Los Angeles of this disease years after being infected with measles as infants, before they were old enough to be vaccinated.
Measles is an economic scourge
Recurrent measles outbreaks in the United States will result in high economic costs. Countries have pursued measles elimination in part because of the clear economic benefits of stopping domestic transmission of the virus.
Studies have shown that the cost of controlling measles outbreaks This often amounts to tens of thousands of dollars per case. An outbreak in Washington state in 2018-2019which involved 72 cases — a small outbreak compared to what states are currently reporting — cost $3.2 million in public health response, medical costs and lost productivity. THE Joint Coalition for Health found that a sustained 1% decline in MMR coverage would cost the United States billions in health care systems and the economy.
An opening for infectious diseases
As concerning as recent measles outbreaks are, they signal a larger systemic problem.
How well a country controls measles can be seen as an indicator of how well it would control many other diseases. Indeed, the steps to stop the spread are the same: deploy vaccines to prevent infections, detect and isolate cases when they occur, identify exposed contacts of infected people and ensure they stay home if they are likely to be contagious, and treat sick people safely.
But besides measles, we have already seen infections that were once under control, like whooping coughwhich increased sharply in 2024 and remained high in 2025 compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Indeed, controlling the spread of many infectious diseases depends on public confidence in the fundamental elements of public health. Declining MMR vaccination coverage reveals underlying challenges in public support for vaccines. Public confidence in the current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also eroding, according to a survey carried out between 2023 and early 2026 by the health policy organization KFF. Less than half of those surveyed even trust the government “enough” to provide reliable information about vaccines.
These growing cracks in the nation’s public health system will complicate efforts to protect Americans from future disease threats – whether an epidemic, pandemic or biological attack.
This edited article is republished from The conversation under Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
