NBA Cup quarterfinal preview: Everything you need to know about each matchup
The Emirates NBA Cup 2025 quarter-finals will begin on Tuesday after the group matches conclude on November 28. Four matchups will decide who gets a ticket to the semifinals in Las Vegas on Saturday.
First, the Miami Heat visits the Orlando Magic before the Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks. The winner of each game will represent the East. The Western Conference matchups take place on Wednesday, when the 23-1 Oklahoma City Thunder host the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers host the San Antonio Spurs.
The Magic will be without star Franz Wagner, who had to leave Sunday’s game with a serious ankle sprain. The good news for the Magic, however, is that Paolo Banchero is back from a groin injury he suffered on November 12th. In the West, Luka Doncic is back with the Lakers after missing two games for the birth of his daughter. And while LeBron James saw his 1,297-game streak end Thursday, he and the Lakers have the chance to become the first two-time NBA Cup champions.
Can anyone stop the Thunder in the West? And will Wagner’s injury dash Orlando’s hopes of reaching Las Vegas? Our NBA Insiders answer the biggest questions ahead of the quarterfinals.
Eastern Conference
How will Franz Wagner’s injury affect the Magic vs. Heat and the future?
Orlando was finally whole – for one game.
The Magic waited 23 days for star Paolo Banchero to return Friday from a groin injury. Less than 48 hours later, Franz Wagner suffered a sprained left ankle, dramatically upending Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal. Although the Magic received the best news possible regarding Wagner’s injury — an MRI showed no structural damage, sources told ESPN — Orlando will face its in-state rival without its most stable player. Wagner is averaging 22.7 points, a career-high 6.1 rebounds and improved his 3-point shooting from 29.5% last season to 36.0%, a big reason the Magic was able to go 7-3 without Banchero.
Instead of being able to drop back, Banchero will have to immediately take on the offensive load, supplemented by scoring and outside shooting from Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs. Anthony Black has already played a major role this season, and his versatility will be vital for the Magic to survive without Wagner for potentially the next two to four weeks. Wagner had 32 points in Friday’s 106-105 win over Miami, while the returning Banchero added nine points on just eight shots in 20 minutes. After 16 points on 11 shots in 24 minutes in Sunday’s loss to the Knicks, Banchero’s offense is slowly making progress heading into the Cup quarters.
Although Orlando is without one of its top scorers, Miami guard Tyler Herro (toe) is likely and Davion Mitchell (groin) is expected to play. The Heat have lost four of their last five games, but Herro’s potential return and Wagner’s injury could provide the boost Miami needs to reach Vegas. -Ohm Youngmisuk
Did the Knicks bring their scorching offense, and will Karl-Anthony Towns be a part of it?
New York’s offense has been a machine through the team’s first 23 games — third in the NBA in efficiency and fourth in three-pointers made per game. The Knicks also come up against the Raptors at the right time, as Toronto has lost five of its last six games after a torrid 13-1 run that propelled them up the conference standings. To make matters worse, the Raptors will be without forward RJ Barrett, who the team says is out at least another week with a sprained knee.
But for the Knicks, there is only one problem: this NBA Cup quarter-final is taking place in Toronto. The Knicks are turning into a league-average offense away from Madison Square Garden (just 3-6 on the road).
New York could also be without big man Towns, who is questionable due to a calf injury that kept him out of Sunday’s victory. Getting back OG Anunoby — the two-way force played 23 minutes Sunday against the Magic after missing nine games with a hamstring strain — doesn’t feel as good if Towns’ injury turns into more of a one-game reprieve.
Towns hasn’t had the best season to date. All of his offensive numbers are down from last season, his first in New York after being traded by the Minnesota Timberwolves on the eve of training camp. Perhaps it’s the adjustment to new coach Mike Brown’s offense, in which Towns gets the ball in different spots, and others appear more prominently as playmakers, like forward Mikal Bridges. — Vincent Good Will
On the way to the semi-finals
Miami and Orlando played a preview of the Cup quarterfinals last week, with the Magic earning a 106-105 victory at home in Banchero’s first game back from injury. (The Magic also beat the Heat at home on opening night.)
Both Florida teams were torrid last week but have since calmed down: Orlando went on a 9-2 run before losing two of its last three games, while Miami followed a six-game winning streak with a 1-4 streak.
Toronto also stumbles in the Cup quarterfinals, having lost five of its last six games following a nine-game winning streak. But the Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season, entering the week on a 7-1 run – granted, with the help of a favorable schedule. Five of the Knicks’ last seven wins have come against teams with losing records; the only exceptions are Orlando and Toronto, which the Knicks eliminated 116-94 on November 30.
These two East quarterfinals are also potential previews of the playoffs. The confusing conference standings are likely to change several times between now and the end of the regular season, but projections from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index now place Orlando as Miami’s most likely first-round opponent, and New York as Toronto’s most likely foe. -Zach Kram
Western Conference
Will the Thunder ever lose again?
It’s a bit hyperbolic, but Oklahoma City is a juggernaut of historic proportions. The Thunder, despite ranking second in the league in games missed due to injuries, are the third team in NBA history to win at least 23 of their first 24 games, joining the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors and the 1969-70 New York Knicks. Oklahoma City has an average point differential of plus-16.1 points, which is on pace to shatter its own record of plus-12.9 set last season. The Thunder have won 15 straight games since their only loss of the season, which came at Portland on Nov. 5, when the Trail Blazers rallied from a 22-point deficit to beat an Oklahoma City team without several key players on the second night of a back-to-back.
Phoenix gave OKC as much of a scare as any opponent since that loss, cutting a 15-point deficit to one in the final minutes of the Cup group stage final Nov. 28 at Paycom Center. Then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 10 of his game-high 37 points in the final 2:40.
It’s quite an accomplishment to play the reigning MVP in the fourth quarter this season, something Gilgeous-Alexander has only done 11 times. But staying tight only brings out the best in the Thunder, whose plus-41.4 net rating in clutch situations (scoring within five points in the final five minutes or overtime) is by far the best in the league. -Tim MacMahon
Can the Spurs handle Luka Doncic and the Lakers without Victor Wembanyama?
It’s possible, but it won’t be easy. Although San Antonio played with a healthy Wembanyama, Doncic lit up the Spurs defense for a near triple-double, with Stephon Castle shouldering most of the responsibility to guard him. Although the Lakers finished on a 21-0 run, San Antonio still had a chance to tie the score with 0.2 seconds left – but Julian Champagnie missed two free throws. Second-chance scoring featured prominently in the first meeting between the teams, with Los Angeles beating San Antonio 28-11 in that department.
Lakers big man Deandre Ayton shot 9 of 13 for 22 points and pulled down 10 rebounds while Wembanyama spent most of the game in trouble before finally fouling out. The Frenchman is not expected to participate in this match as he is recovering from a calf strain. Veteran big Luke Kornet, who averaged 2.1 blocks with a game-saving hit Dec. 3 in Orlando, will likely anchor San Antonio’s defense. Kornet, a free agent who helped the Spurs go 7-2 without Wembanyama, fights relentlessly in the paint and should do well against Ayton.
San Antonio likely won’t have any more answers for Doncic and may have to choose between allowing him to score or facilitate. It’s a task made even more difficult with LeBron James, who was sidelined in the teams’ first meeting, back in the lineup. -Michael C. Wright
On the way to the semi-finals
After losing the 2024 NBA Cup Finals to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Thunder are the clear favorites this time amid a 23-1 start to the season.
We got to see glimpses of the playoffs in the West bracket. ESPN BPI projections currently show Phoenix as the Thunder’s most likely first-round opponent and suggest the Lakers or Spurs as plausible second-round matchups.
Although a Suns victory would be a huge upset, the semifinal in Vegas could provide the Thunder with a bigger challenge. The Lakers would be the de facto home team on a neutral court, and the Spurs’ breakthrough campaign led by a budding superstar is reminiscent of Oklahoma City’s two years ago.
The Lakers handed the Thunder their biggest defeat of the 2024-25 regular season, winning 126-99 at Oklahoma City in April behind 30 points from Doncic. The Thunder responded with a comfortable win over Los Angeles two days later, but Doncic’s size and skill still made him a tough matchup for Oklahoma City (and everyone else).
A Spurs-Thunder clash could potentially renew the rivalry between Chet Holmgren and Wembanyama, which dates back to the 2021 FIBA U19 World Cup final, if the latter returns from a left calf strain that has kept him sidelined since November 17. Due to injuries, the two talented young centers have only met once since their rookie seasons. Wembanyama struggled in this game, scoring six points on 1 of 5 shooting in October 2024. -Kevin Pelton
