NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, top upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times

Florida was one of the hottest teams in college basketball entering March Madness a year ago, and the Gators are playing well entering the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. The defending national champions were eliminated by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament semifinals, but they are still a No. 1 seed in the 2026 March Madness bracket. The other No. 1 seeds are Duke, Michigan and Arizona, with the Blue Devils earning the No. 1 overall seed. Duke picked up wins over Florida and Michigan during the regular season, so the Blue Devils will be a popular selection to cut down the nets in 2026 March Madness bracket picks.

At least one of those teams is likely to slip up prior to the Final Four, while a 2026 March Madness Cinderella team is likely to emerge. Which overlooked teams should you target with your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Villanova has been one of the top teams in college basketball in recent years, winning the NCAA Tournament in 2016 and 2018 before making another trip to the Final Four in 2022. The Wildcats join Ohio State as the only programs that have played in the NCAA Tournament in every decade since the 1930s. Utah State is back in the Big Dance for the fourth year in a row as it tries to make a run to the Final Four for the first time since 1970.

Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. Missouri hovered on the bubble for most of the season but used a strong stretch in SEC play to secure its spot in the NCAA Tournament field. The Tigers are on a three-game losing streak heading into their matchup against Miami, which is coming off an 84-62 loss to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes lost four of their five games against ranked opponents during the regular season, with three of those losses coming by double digits.

The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas is rolling entering the Big Dance, as star freshman Darius Acuff Jr. led the Razorbacks to an SEC Tournament title. Acuff is averaging 22.7 points per game after scoring at least 24 points in four straight games. He is facing a Hawaii team that is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016, clinching its spot with a win over UC Irvine in the Big West Tournament title game.  You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that’s nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.