NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Proven simulation predicts surprising upsets, sleepers, March Madness picks
Only six coaches in the history of the NCAA Tournament have won at least three national championships. However, there is a trio in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket that could become the seventh. Bill Self, Dan Hurley and Rick Pitino are both title-winning coaches and the only active coaches to have won multiple national championships. All three are in the East Region bracket of March Madness 2026, with UConn the second seed, Kansas the fourth seed and St. John’s the fifth seed.
Tom Izzo and No. 3 Michigan State are also in the East, and he could become a two-time national champion in the 2026 NCAA tournament. All of the coaches mentioned above are either in the Hall of Fame or destined for it. So you shouldn’t underestimate coaching experience when filling out NCAA Tournament bracket selections. Before making your predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, check out the March Madness 2026 bracket picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation produced huge upsets, including huge wins for No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation caused huge upsets, including calling both 9 seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model beat more than 91 percent of all players in the CBS Sports bracket in four of the last seven tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has pulled off 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and won UConn the championship in 2024. It has pulled off 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. He entered conference tournament week on a torrid 14-2 streak on his highest-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 streak on top-rated picks on the CBB side. You shouldn’t even think about making a choice without seeing what their model has to say.
Top upset picks from the March Madness 2026 bracket
One South region surprise the model identified: No. 11 VCU upsets six-time national champion and No. 6 seed North Carolina. Keith Gill, chairman of the 2025-26 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee, said VCU needs to win its conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, and that’s exactly what the Rams did by winning the Atlantic 10 final. Stranger things happen in March, and if you’re in the dance, you have a chance. VCU can leverage that momentum into a deep tournament run. VCU is 16-1 over its last 17 games, playing its best basketball at the right time.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is struggling with injuries, and the Tar Heels’ lack of strength was evident in an 80-79 loss to unranked Clemson in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels are without their top scorer. North Carolina is just 4-3 in its last seven games, and given VCU’s current quality of play, the model sides with the David versus Goliath of a program in the Tar Heels.
Another South region surprise the model identified: No. 10 Texas A&M eliminates No. 7 Saint Mary’s. The Aggies are a veteran-heavy team, with seven of their top eight scorers being seniors. They also have unmatched depth as their 35.6 points per game off the bench are the highest of any power conference team over the past decade. So, A&M has plenty of scoring options to offer Saint Mary’s, and the Gaels simply lack the firepower to keep up.
Saint Mary’s falls outside the top 100 teams in scoring (78.2 points per game) and shooting (46.1 FG%). While the Gaels rank 10th nationally in 3P%, they are only 266th in attempts, which blunts one of their biggest strengths. This first round contest would qualify as a Quad 1 match for Saint Mary’s, and the team is just 1-4 in Quad 1 matches this year, compared to 26-1 in all other competitions. Find out what other March Madness 2026 upsets and matchups to target here.
How to Predict the 2026 NCAA Tournament Brackets
Who wins each tournament-defining match? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of making upset calls, you’ll want to see which stunners he calls this year before locking in the 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So, what is the optimal bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament? And which NCAA Cinderella Tournament teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth first-round upsets, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6 seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that has pulled off 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
