NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, optimal sleepers, March Madness picks

The 87th NCAA Tournament is here, with the first national champion crowned in 1939. There have been 37 schools that have won a national title, with 15 winning multiple championships entering the 2026 March Madness bracket. Six programs have won 17 of the last 21 titles, and they are the blue bloods of the sport. UConn (5 titles), UNC (3), Florida (3), Duke (2), Kansas (2) and Villanova (2) have had dynastic runs during this span and will be favored by many in 2026 NCAA Tournament picks.

Villanova is the lowest seed among these teams at No. 8 in the West Region, and the Wildcats are 0-5 against ranked teams this season. This is Nova’s first NCAA appearance since Jay Wright’s retirement, so it will be intriguing to see if the program prestige he established can continue. Before making your predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, check out the March Madness 2026 bracket picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation produced huge upsets, including huge wins for No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation caused huge upsets, including calling both 9 seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model beat more than 91 percent of all players in the CBS Sports bracket in four of the last seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has pulled off 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and won UConn the championship in 2024. It has pulled off 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. He entered conference tournament week on a torrid 14-2 streak on his highest-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 streak on top-rated picks on the CBB side. You shouldn’t even think about making a choice without seeing what their model has to say.

Top upset picks from the March Madness 2026 bracket

One South region surprise the model identified: No. 11 VCU upsets six-time national champion and No. 6 seed North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost freshman Caleb Wilson to a season-ending hand injury late in the regular season, and they lost to Clemson in their first game of the ACC Tournament. They went just 5-3 without Wilson this season, with his 19.8 points per game being the most for a freshman in school history.

VCU has lost just one game in the last two months and is averaging its highest points per game (81.6) in the last 50 years. The Rams are a deep team, ranked seventh in Division I in bench points per game (34.0) this season. Head coach Phil Martelli Jr. led the team to 27 wins in his first season, tied for second behind Anthony Grant.

Another South Region surprise the model identified: No. 5 Vanderbilt overtakes No. 4 Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cornhuskers got off to a magical 20-0 start to the year, but have gone just 6-6 since then. They are a high-volume 3P shooting team, ranking 14th in the country in attempts per game, but are not a high-efficiency unit, ranking just 106th in 3P percentage. Without rotation players taller than 6-foot-9, Nebraska also struggles to protect the paint, ranking 306th in the nation in blocks.

That makes this potential second-round matchup against Vanderbilt highly undesirable for NU, as Vandy has the second-best FG% in the paint among all 365 Division I teams. The Commodores also convert from the charity stripe, ranking fourth in the nation in FT%. Vanderbilt just beat No. 1 seed Florida by 17 points in the SEC tournament as the model projects it will reach the Sweet 16 for the first time in 19 years. Find out what other March Madness 2026 upsets and matchups to target here.

How to Predict the 2026 NCAA Tournament Brackets

Who wins each tournament-defining match? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of making upset calls, you’ll want to see which stunners he calls this year before locking in the 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So, what is the optimal bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament? And which NCAA Cinderella Tournament teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth first-round upsets, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6 seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that has pulled off 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.