The New (and Hopefully) Final Write Up of the Big Senate Brawl in the Lone Star State – RedState

Since I wrote my previous article about the U.S. Senate race in Texas, there have been many changes to the list of candidates. Two serious contenders have been announced, one of them being Jasmine Crockett, a middle-class, private school-educated, African-American congresswoman turned radical left cosplaying madwoman. One candidate, a former congressman, also moved toward a more winnable run in the U.S. House of Representatives.

In the end, the GOP’s advantage in this race was significantly strengthened.

Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Likely R

On the GOP side, there are three candidates: four-term incumbent John Cornyn, an establishment conservative; three-term Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, an anti-establishment conservative; and two-term U.S. Congressman Wesley Hunt, a veteran African-American conservative with ties to both camps.

Currently, Senator Cornyn has the narrowest advantage in the primary race in the RCP average – 30.3% to Paxton’s 30%, with Hunt at 20.5%. With none of these three candidates approaching 50 (plus 1), a second round between the first two candidates is very likely.

While Paxton started out with a substantial advantage in the polls, Cornyn and his allies spent months over the summer beating Paxton on the air. It worked because Paxton is a candidate who was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House, although he was ultimately acquitted, on corruption allegations, and is in the process of divorcing his wife, a state senator, who accused him of adultery. It also doesn’t help that, due to a childhood accident, he has a damaged, brown, droopy eye.

Cornyn has his own problems, however. As a four-term incumbent president, he is known for being rather boring and has certainly moderated some important issues, such as guns and immigration, during his career. It is important to note that Chris LaCivita, President Trump’s former 2024 campaign manager, was selected by Senator Cornyn to run a Cornyn Super PAC, and that Cornyn also brought in Tony Fabrizio, another senior Trump strategist, to work on his campaign.

Hunt, meanwhile, remained in the background before announcing, although he advertised to reinforce his positive points. But now that he has declared himself, he still lags behind in the polls.

This primary could take place in two ways. If Cornyn and Paxton focus primarily on each other, then Hunt could slip into the middle of what I’ve called the Feingold maneuver. However, if all three attack each other, then anything goes, although Hunt may still have a slight advantage. Cornyn has less room to grow, according to much of the polling, and Paxton has his already mentioned problems. Meanwhile, Hunt has no obvious weaknesses and is much younger with a military background. Certainly, if Hunt manages to increase his poll numbers and advance to the runoff, he will likely be the favorite ahead of either of the other two candidates, since establishment conservatives hate Paxton and anti-establishment conservatives hate Cornyn.

It’s because of Hunt’s potential that the Republican establishment has tried to block him and continues to take shots at him. (Full disclosure – I know and like the person in question.)

One advantage Cornyn still has is fundraising. He raised much more than the other two candidates and enjoys a substantial advantage thanks to outside spending.

Another potential key to a GOP primary victory could be the president’s endorsement. However, with Rep. Crockett entering the race, this became less likely, since all three Republicans would have a significant advantage over Crockett.

And now let’s talk about the Democrats.

Rep. Crockett leads her only serious Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, with 51.5 percent to the RCP average of 38.5 percent. His entry into the race highlighted the third serious candidate, former Congressman Colin Allred, whose more moderate positioning could have made him the strongest candidate to win over moderate Republicans and independents for the general election. However, with TDS’ ascendancy among Democrats, Allred knew he could not compete with Crockett in the primary, so he embarked on a run for the House. That leaves Talarico, and although he is a fundraising heavyweight himself, Democratic primary voters, who are mostly white and minority, are much more likely to favor Crockett over him, a white heterosexual man.

Crockett’s entry has sparked fear and anger within the Democratic establishment, which can read the writing on the wall. As one anonymous Democrat said: “Even if it’s Paxton on the [GOP] ticket, [Crockett] doesn’t give us any chance of winning the Senate, or at least doesn’t put us in the game.” Ragin Cajun James Carville is also dismissive of his chances, as he lamented that Crockett “violates the first rule of politics, that in politics you always talk about the voters and never about yourself.”

While it’s important to never say never in politics, I think Carville and the other Democratic establishment types are right in this case – I just don’t see how Jasmine Crockett could win a Senate seat in conservative Texas against any of the Republican candidates. So, unless Talarico can beat her, it is extremely unlikely that Democrats will end a thirty-seven-year drought (since Lloyd Bentsen’s 1988 victory) in U.S. Senate elections in Texas. And even if Talarico surprises, he would still be the underdog.

But “we’ll (just) have to see what happens.”

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