Ballon d’Or favorite to Real Madrid bench: Vini Jr.’s tale of two years

It was supposed to be the year of Vinícius Júnior. In 2024, the Real Madrid star striker had won La Liga and the UEFA Champions League. The next one, logically, would be the Ballon d’Or.

Almost everyone thought so, a sentiment vehemently expressed by former Manchester United player Rio Ferdinand, who shouted “Ballon d’Or!” into a microphone six times – count them – after Vini Jr. scored Madrid’s second goal in the 2024 Champions League final.

But Vinícius didn’t win the 2024 Ballon d’Or. Rodri did. On October 28 last year, Vinícius and Real Madrid discovered that the Brazilian striker was not about to cap off a memorable 12 months by winning football’s most prestigious individual award. In fact, he would finish second behind the more discreet midfield of Manchester City and Spain.

Madrid’s reaction was to boycott the ceremony, cancel plans to send a large delegation to Paris and sever ties with organizer France Football.

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In Madrid, second best is not enough. Vini Jr.’s reaction was one of defiance when he bombasticly posted on social media: “I’ll do it 10 times if I have to. They’re not ready.” The message was clear: if not this year, then next year. It’s a question of time.

But 2025 was not the year of Vinícius either. Real Madrid finished last season without a major trophy, losing a record four Classics in Barcelona en route. In the FIFA Club World Cup under new coach

Vinícius, 25, still expected to start Sunday’s final match Classic against Barça (stream LIVE on ESPN+ in the US), at the Santiago Bernabéu. But he will no longer play the role of Madrid’s brightest star. It’s undoubtedly Kylian Mbappé, who has taken his game to another level, scoring in 10 of the team’s 11 games so far this season.

It has been a turnaround in 12 months, as the seeming inevitability of Vinícius’ Ballon d’Or crowning has given way to inconsistent performance levels, a diminished status within the Real Madrid team and even doubts about his long-term future at the club.

In the 365 days leading up to his Ballon d’Or snub – from October 28, 2023 to October 27, 2024 – Vinícius made a compelling case for being the best player in the world.

He scored 18 goals in 30 La Liga matches during this period, a rate of 0.6 goals per game. The only players to score more goals in La Liga during this period have been three pure center forwards, two of them in the best form of their careers: Robert Lewandowski (28), Alexander Sørloth (22, for Villarreal and Atlético Madrid) and Artem Dovbyk (19), then of Girona.

Their role is defined by scoring goals; Vinícius’ game offers much more. During these 365 days, he delivered eight assists (a total exceeded by six La Liga players) and created 49 chances, which places him 16th in the championship. Undoubtedly his greatest asset, dribbling, allowed him to achieve a record 227 successful attempts, more than Lamine Yamal (225), Nico Williams (201) and Savinho (194).

Around this time, Vinícius also had a series of eye-catching performances in the Champions League. Only one player, Harry Kane, has managed to surpass Vini Jr.’s 11 goals (eight goals and three assists). In terms of wing play, no player came close to his 95 catches (Mbappé was next, with 70).

On 30 April 2024, he scored twice in a 2–2 semi-final draw at Bayern Munich. A month later, he scored a second goal in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley. Later that year, just six days before the Ballon d’Or ceremony, he produced one of his most electrifying individual performances: scoring a second-half hat-trick in another victory over Dortmund, 5-2 at the Bernabéu. Madrid led 0-2 with half an hour to go, until Vinícius single-handedly rewrote the script in a way few players could.

The following year – from October 28, 2024 to today – has been less convincing. Vinícius’ scoring rate has dropped, with 11 goals in 28 La Liga matches, to a rate of 0.4 goals per game. During this period, 11 La Liga players have scored more, including Raphinha (15) and Athletic Club’s Oihan Sancet (12), neither of whom are center forwards.

Vinícius recorded a further eight assists, as in the previous 12 months – only Yamal has more, with 11 – but three of those came in the last month, as his form improved. Vinícius played 15 league matches and almost six long months, between November 24, 2024 and May 11, 2025, without providing a single La Liga assist to his teammates.

Part of that decline, of course, can be attributed to Madrid’s disappointing 2024-25 season and broader issues, well beyond a single player. Vinícius still created 59 chances for his teammates last year, an increase of 10 on the previous 12 months, with only six La Liga players – Pedri, Álex Baena, Raphinha, Mbappé, Isco and Luis Milla – creating more.

But during this troubling run of 15 games without an assist, the team lost points in six matches, many against so-called beatable opponents: Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, Atlético Madrid, Osasuna, Real Betis and Valencia. Madrid finished the season four points behind champion Barcelona.

Meanwhile, in the Champions League, Vinícius bounced back from his Ballon d’Or setback with four goals in three games against AC Milan, Atalanta and RB Salzburg, before becoming man of the match in Madrid’s 3-2 first-leg playoff win at Manchester City on February 11, 2025.

But after that – against Atlético Madrid in the round of 16 and Arsenal in the quarter-finals – his influence was limited, with just one goal against the Gunners at the Bernabéu. Only 10 players have produced more Champions League goals and assists than Vinícius’ seven over the last year, and 17 players have created more chances.

As for this year’s Ballon d’Or, the two main contenders were Yamal and Ousmane Dembélé, with Paris Saint-Germain’s exploits in the Champions League earning Dembélé the trophy at the gala in Paris on September 22. Vinícius was 16th in the voting,

After Vinícius’ close relationship with Carlo Ancelotti – now his Brazil national team coach – Alonso’s arrival prompted a reassessment of his position at Real Madrid. Under Ancelotti, if Vinícius was fit, he invariably started.

But Alonso left Vinícius out of the starting XI for Madrid’s match against Real Oviedo on August 24 and against Marseille in the Champions League on September 16, a decision which – according to a source – was received with surprise within the club.

In both matches, Alonso favored Vini’s compatriot Rodrygo, who told the coach he also wanted to be considered for selection on the left wing. Even when Vinícius started games under Alonso, he didn’t stay on the pitch often.

In Alonso’s first 12 games in charge in all competitions, Vinícius only played 90 minutes once. Earlier in the season, the player’s entourage told ESPN that they were unhappy with Alonso’s use of Vinícius, although the situation has since improved – playing 90 minutes in three of the last five games – and Alonso has remained publicly supportive.

“He had a big impact,” Alonso said of Vinícius’ latest contribution as a substitute on Sunday in Getafe. “We talked about it this morning, that [the players] could be just as important early on, or game-changing off the bench. And that’s what happened. … That’s what it’s about, for everyone to know that they can be important in the role that they have.”

Last month, Vinícius’ form improved. He excelled in Madrid’s 4–1 win at Levante on September 23, scoring a goal and an assist. He scored twice in one of the team’s toughest tests this season, a 3–1 win over Villarreal on 4 October. And at Getafe, he came on in the 55th minute to transform the game, causing two opposition players – Allan Nyom and Álex Sancris – to be sent off as they tried to deal with him.

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Could Vinicius Jr really leave Real Madrid?

Gab Marcotti discusses the possibility of Vinicius Jr leaving Real Madrid and where he could go.

Vinícius’ short-term future is clear: after a shaky start, he is once again emerging as an important part of a Madrid team looking to beat Barcelona for the title and improve on their Champions League quarter-final exit last season.

In the longer term, such clarity does not exist. Contract negotiations – with Vinícius’ current deal set to expire in June 2027 – have stalled, sources told ESPN.

Negotiations progressed in May, when a possible new deal for a fixed amount of €20 million per year, plus an additional €10 million in variables, was discussed. However, the club’s formal offer did not include these bonuses, sources said.

On this basis, Vinícius’ representatives did not see the need to agree to a three-year extension, when the player already earns around 17 million euros per year after taxes, including bonuses, and preferred to wait and see how this season goes.

However, several club sources paint a different picture, with some claiming there is some discontent behind the scenes at the Bernabéu over the way discussions have been handled by the player. A source claimed Madrid believed the renewal was on track before players’ demands changed.

Madrid remained confident that Vinícius would eventually renew, but a source said that – unless the situation changed – it would no longer be a shock if the player sought to terminate his contract and leave on a free transfer in 2027.

The interest generated by the Saudi Pro League last year was not followed up in 2025, and Vinícius’ camp has since played down the possibility.

Recent history suggests that in a contract showdown at the Bernabéu, even the biggest stars – think Cristiano Ronaldo or Sergio Ramos – don’t tend to come out on top. But there is also no precedent for a Madrid star, at his peak, choosing to terminate his contract.

“I’m happy here, I play with the best players in the world, the best coach [Ancelotti]the best president [Florentino Pérez]where everyone loves me,” Vinícius said last season.

“I couldn’t be better than here.”

Is this still true? The answer will depend on Vinícius’ form, how his relationship with Alonso develops and how the player and club handle his contractual situation.

ESPN’s Gustavo Hofman and Rodrigo Faez contributed to this report