NFL Thanksgiving bold predictions: Mahomes rattled, Burrow takes down Ravens

There’s nothing more American on Thanksgiving than spending time with family, pacing back and forth from the table or couch with multiple plates of food, and watching three NFL games.

First up will be the 23rd Turkey Day meeting between the NFC North’s Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions, the most played game in NFL Thanksgiving Day history. The league’s midday action will feature two of the biggest brands in football: the Kansas City Chiefs and the Dallas Cowboys. A fun day of football will then conclude with an AFC North rivalry showdown between Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals and Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens.

What exciting, unforeseen events could happen in each of the three games? Here’s a bold prediction for all three dishes on the Thanksgiving list.

All odds via FanDuel Sports Betting. Bet on NFL Thanksgiving games on FanDuel and get $150 bonus bets with a $5 win bet.

Packers hold Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs to under 60 yards rushing

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs enters Week 13 as the NFC’s reigning offensive player — and for good reason. He totaled 219 yards and two touchdowns on the ground on just 15 carries (14.6 yards per carry), plus 45 receiving yards and a touchdown on 11 catches, in Detroit’s 34-27 overtime victory over the New York Giants. The winning score was his 69-yard touchdown run on the first play of overtime.

Gibbs comes into Turkey Day on fire. However, the Green Bay Packers will stifle that and keep him under 60 rushing yards — something that has only happened four times this season, including his 19-yard performance on nine carries in Detroit’s 27-13 Week 1 loss at Green Bay, his worst game as a starter in the NFL.

Despite Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones’ insistence that All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons lacks the ability to defend the run, Parsons’ Packers’ defense ranks sixth against him in 2025, allowing just 96.5 rushing yards per game. Green Bay also benefits from facing a broken Lions offensive line that will be without starting center Graham Glasgow (knee). Left tackle Taylor Decker (shoulder), right tackle Penei Sewell (ankle) and right guard Tate Ratledge (knee) were all limited in practice and are listed as questionable for Thursday.

Parsons, explosive linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and company should have what it takes to significantly limit Gibbs in a season sweep against the back-to-back NFC North champions.

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Tyler Sullivan

Cowboys defense intercepts Patrick Mahomes multiple times

Yes, Patrick Mahomes, three-time Super Bowl MVP for the Kansas City Chiefs, is the best quarterback in football today, but the Dallas Cowboys defense — yes, the Dallas Cowboys defense — will make Mahomes look very deadly.

Dallas enters Thanksgiving as the second-worst defense in the NFL (28.5 points allowed per game), but a closer look at the last two weeks reveals a different unit. The Cowboys’ defensive staff has changed dramatically following the trades of Jets All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and veteran Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson, as well as the return to health of electric linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and third-round rookie cornerback Shavon Revel Jr.

Since Week 11, when all four debuted in the Cowboys’ 2025 season, Dallas has been the best run defense in football (45.0 rushing yards allowed per game), even against two standout running backs: 2025 sixth overall pick Ashton Jeanty of the Raiders and 2024 Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley of the Eagles.

*The week 10 bye week

Forcing the Chiefs to become one-dimensional will allow Williams, three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark and defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa to lock ears against Mahomes, who will be without Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith (ankle). The pressure generated by Dallas should lead to turnovers, with the NFL’s 2023 interception leader DaRon Bland – as well as another Cowboys defender – each returning with an interception against the two-time league MVP on Thursday.

Bengals’ Joe Burrow throws for at least 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in return to end Ravens’ five-game winning streak

The Ravens went from being left for dead at 1-5 to now being 6-5 and tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers atop the AFC North. The reason? Since Week 8, they have fielded the best defense in football, ranking first or tied for first in scoring defense (13.4 points allowed per game), third down defense (26.6% conversion rate), red zone defense (30.8% touchdown rate) and takeaways (10).

Only two quarterbacks have thrown three or more touchdowns against Baltimore this season: Patrick Mahomes (four in Week 4) and CJ Stroud (four in Week 5). Josh Allen is the only quarterback to surpass 300 passing yards against the Ravens this season, dating back to Week 1.

However, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will throw for at least 300 yards and three passing touchdowns in his return from a turf toe injury that has kept him sidelined since Week 3.

Cincinnati receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow’s top target, returns from one-game suspension for spitting on Steelers cornerback Jalen Ramseyand he will play with an added edge – fueled by Burrow’s dismissal and return. Bengals running back Chase Brown begins a five-game streak of at least 100 yards from scrimmage, tied for the franchise’s longest since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970.

With these two weapons, and even with No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins sidelined by concussionBurrow is ready to light up the Ravens for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns to close out NFL action on Thanksgiving.