NFL Week 16 overreactions and reality checks: Quinn Ewers era already over in Miami?
There was no shortage of drama in Week 16. Before we even got to Sunday’s action, we had three games that reshaped the playoff picture, especially in the NFC. There were comebacks from the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears, who sit as the conference’s top two seeds, while the Philadelphia Eagles secured their spot as NFC East champions for the second year in a row.
As expected, given the time of year, the final playoff seeding storylines are a priority across the NFL. However, there are also many storylines developing around the league that aren’t exactly tied to the playoff picture. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs are discovering that life without Patrick Mahomes is terribly difficult, while the Miami Dolphins could usher in a new era under center.
As we do every week, we’re going to dive into some of the more notable storylines that will arise in Week 16 and determine which ones we should take seriously and which are just simple overreactions.
The Quinn Ewers era is already over in Miami
Excessive reaction to reality: Reality
One of the biggest non-playoff storylines in Week 16 was the Miami Dolphins bench of Tua Tagovailoa and rookie starter Quinn Ewers at quarterback. While this change under center had more to do with Tagovailoa, it was an opportunity for Ewers to present his case as a possible heir apparent to the organization heading into 2026. While it was only one start under his belt, it wasn’t exactly a performance that instilled confidence in the Texas product.
Ewers finished his first career start, completing 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards and two interceptions in what was a blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. It was in the second half that Ewers really started to falter, completing 55.6 percent of his throws and two interceptions to result in a passer rating of 43.8.
Ewers will likely start in Miami’s final two games to close out the season, but the initial optimism about his rise to the top of the depth chart has certainly hit a sobering wall. In the first test, Ewers didn’t do enough to force Miami to give up on pursuing other options during the upcoming offseason.
Jaxson Dart is no longer the clear QB of the Giants’ future
Excessive reaction to reality: Overreaction
It was a weird day for the New York Giants offense as they fell to the Minnesota Vikings, 16-13. Although this final score illustrates a close game, the offense didn’t contribute much, as New York’s only touchdown of the afternoon came on the defensive end. Overall, the offense recorded just 141 yards of offense on 2.9 yards per play.
Specifically, it was a quiet afternoon for rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who attempted just five passes in the first half and completed one for 2 yards. For the game, Dart was 7 of 13 for 33 yards and an interception, giving him a passer rating of 27.4.
It was truly a terrible performance in every way. While this may shake some people’s confidence in Dart’s position as the centerpiece of the organization, it shouldn’t do so. There are so many things wrong with the Giants, from an ill-equipped offensive line, injured pass catchers and an interim head coach, that it’s hard to truly evaluate him.
Dart has shown enough this season that any serious head coaching candidate this cycle will be able to look at him and see someone he can develop into a true franchise quarterback.
Chiefs loss shows how Patrick Mahomes carried the team
Excessive reaction to reality: Reality
The Kansas City Chiefs saw another quarterback go down Sunday, with Gardner Minshew leaving due to a knee injury, so the organization was truly playing with both arms tied behind their back offensively. That said, watching them fall to the Tennessee Titans revealed just how supportive Patrick Mahomes is of this roster. With the face of the franchise out for the year due to a torn ACL, we’ve seen the warts on this roster. The offensive line struggles in pass protection, there are no real receiving threats (even though Rashee Rice is injured for this game), and the defense just saw one of the worst offenses in the league move the ball at will for most of the afternoon. These last two weeks should be a wake-up call to the front office: As generational as Mahomes is, he needs at least some talent at his disposal to get them back to the top of the mountain.
NFL Week 16 playoff photo: 49ers, Bears secure tickets; The Panthers take the lead in the NFC South
Tyler Sullivan
The Panthers will run away with the NFC South
Excessive reaction to reality: Overreaction
Carolina picked up a massive win in Week 16 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The win vaulted them into first place in the NFC South as they sit in 7th place in the conference with just two weeks left in the regular season.
While this win gives them an inside track to possibly being named NFC South champions, it’s a step too far to say they’re not going to run away with the division. Yes, if Carolina wins, they will win the division, but the road ahead is not easy. Next week, they will host the Seattle Seahawks, currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, before traveling to Raymond James Stadium, where they will face the Buccaneers again. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s Week 17 opponent is much easier in the Miami Dolphins, even though that game is on the road. This division is still very much up in the air.
Bills defense will be their undoing in the playoffs
Excessive reaction to reality: Reality
It didn’t burn them on Sunday as they managed to escape Cleveland with a win against the Browns, but the Buffalo Bills’ run defense is a huge problem that could prove to be their undoing when they enter the playoffs. In a game where Quinshon Judkins left early due to injury, Cleveland still managed to rush for 160 yards on 5.2 yards per carry, which helped put the Bills firmly on alert. This isn’t a one-week problem for the unit either, as it has been among the worst run defenses in the league all season.
Heading into Week 16, Buffalo was giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (143.1) with an average allowed of 5.4 yards per carry, second-highest in the league. With various playoff teams featuring a strong rushing attack, this could be their kryptonite.
Detroit’s Super Bowl window has closed
Excessive reaction to reality: Overreaction
The Lions likely saw their hopes of sneaking into the playoffs go up in smoke as they failed to mount a comeback against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Detroit is now 8-7 and the No. 8 seed in the conference, but is far behind the No. 7 seed Packers (9-5-1) when factoring in the fact that Green Bay owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.
With their playoff dreams likely dashed, the next question is whether or not the Lions missed their Super Bowl window. The division is getting tougher with each passing year, so it will be a tougher path for Dan Campbell’s club, but there is too much talent to completely close the door on the Lions progressing to the big game in years to come. If they recover and make some additions this offseason, they could quickly return to the elite teams in the conference.
The Jaguars are the team to beat in the AFC
Excessive reaction to reality: Reality
Jacksonville earns its signature win of the season, heading to Denver and defeating the Broncos, who currently sit at the No. 1 seed. This was a well-deserved victory for the Jags, as it begins to validate what has been an exceptional run during this six-game winning streak.
Before Sunday, Jacksonville had largely defeated some bad competition, which opened the door for those looking at the organization to doubt whether or not the Jaguars were real. Well, it’s hard to argue with that now, as they took down arguably the best team in the conference in their building in pretty convincing fashion. Coming out of Week 16, you can make a strong case that these Jaguars are the crème de la crème of the AFC.
