NFL Week 17 clinching scenarios: How every division and playoff spot could be locked up this weekend

With just two weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL regular season, only one division has been won so far, but that could change in Week 17. After the Eagles won the NFC Eastthe seven divisions still in play could all be settled this week. It’s also possible that all playoff spots will be clinched by the end of Week 17.

So far, 10 of the 14 playoff spots have been accounted for – and the final four spots could be filled by the end of the weekend.

So what needs to happen for every playoff spot to be clinched? Glad you asked. Let’s take a look at all the deciding scenarios for Week 17.

There is exactly one scenario that would see the Broncos clinch the conference’s No. 1 seed And AFC West title:

1. DEN victory + defeat or tie LAC + defeat NE + defeat or tie BUF + defeat or tie JAX

The Broncos have a much simpler path to winning the AFC West this week, however. For this to happen, they simply need to carry out one of the following two scenarios:

1. DEN wins + LAC loses or draw OR
2. DEN draw + LAC defeat

The Broncos will meet the Chiefs on Christmas Day before the Chargers host the Texans in a Saturday game.

The Jags are on the verge of their second division title for the last seven years. For this to happen, they need one of two scenarios to occur:

1. JAX victory + HOU defeat or OU tie
2. JAX tie + HOU loss

The Jaguars will travel to Indianapolis for Sunday’s game while the Texans will be at the Chargers.

The Patriots could take the AFC East if with one of these two scenarios:

1. NE victory + BUF defeat or tie OR
2. NE draw + loss of BUF

Next Sunday, the Patriots will meet the Jets while the Bills will host the Eagles.

The AFC North race could end this week if one of these two simple scenarios occurs:

1. PIT wins or draws OR
2. BAL lost or void

The Ravens play Saturday against the Packers. A loss in Baltimore would allow Pittsburgh to win the AFC North before the Steelers even take the field for Sunday’s game against the Browns.

Houston Texans

The Texans can’t clinch a division title this week, but they can secure a playoff spot if one of the following three scenarios occurs:

1. HOU wins or draws OR
2. Loss or tie of IND OU
3. HOU earns at least one tie in strength in tiebreaker against IND

The Texans must beat the Chargers on Saturday or have the Colts lose to the Jaguars on Sunday. This third decisive scenario concerns the overall record of the teams that the Colts and Texans have each beaten.

The Seahawks can clinch first place overall in the NFC this week, but there is only one scenario in which that could happen:

1. SEA victory + LAR defeat or draw + SF-CHI draw

The ONLY way the Seahawks can clinch first place is if the Bears-Seahawks game ends in a tie. That being said, Seattle has a slightly easier path to clinching the NFC West:

1. SEA victory + defeat or tie LAR + defeat or tie SF OR
2. SEA tie + LAR loss + SF loss

The Seahawks will play at Carolina on Sunday while the Rams travel to Atlanta for Monday’s game. As for the 49ers, they host the Bears on Sunday night.

The Panthers could lock down the NFC South, but there are only two scenarios in which that could happen:

1. CAR victory + TB defeat or draw OR
2. Draw in CAR + defeat in tuberculosis

The Panthers host the Seahawks on Sunday while the Buccaneers head to Miami.

Chicago Bear

The Bears can win the NFC North this weekend if one of these three things goes in their favor:

1. CHI wins OR
2. Loss of GB OR
3. CHI tie + GB tie

The Bears will face the 49ers on Sunday night, but they could clinch a spot before that if the Packers lose to the Ravens on Saturday night.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers could clinch a playoff spot this week, and it could happen on Christmas Day. Here’s what they need:

1. GB win or draw OR
2. DET loss or tie

The Lions face the Vikings on Thursday, and a Detroit loss would allow Green Bay to clinch a spot. If the Lions win, the Packers can punch their own ticket by beating the Ravens on Saturday night.

With that in mind, let’s look at who’s in and who’s out so far:

NFC
1. Seahawks (12-3) – NFC West leader
2. Bears (11-4) – NFC North leader
3. Eagles (10-5) – WON NFC EAST
4. Panthers (8-7) – Leader of the NFC South
5. 49ers (11-4)
6. Rams (11-4)
7. Packers (9-5-1)
STILL ALIVE
Lions (8-7)
Buccaneers (7-8)

• NFC playoff spots clinched: Rams, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, 49ers
• NFC teams eliminated: Vikings, hawks, saints, commanders, cardinals, giants, cowboys

AFC
1. Broncos (12-3) – AFC West leader
2. Patriots (12-3) – AFC East leader
3. Jaguars (11-4) – AFC South leader
4. Steelers (9-6) – AFC North leader
5. Chargers (11-4)
6. Bills (11-4)
7. Texans (10-5)
STILL ALIVE
Foals (8-7)
Ravens (7-8)

• The AFC playoff spots are clinched: Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Bills, Chargers
• AFC teams eliminated: Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, Jets, Browns, Raiders, Titans

The Colts, Ravens, Lions and Buccaneers could all be eliminated this week. Tampa Bay is the only team in control of its fate: If the Bucs beat the Dolphins, they will still be alive to clinch a playoff spot in Week 18. The other three teams could be eliminated, even with a victory.